Alright here we go, I've only been working on system plays this season so this isn't my own personal play.
Extremely scary play tonight 
However the reason I'm posting it is in my MNF Eagles @ Green Bay thread it chose Eagles +1 perfectly and as I said in that thread last weekend it was also on LV +8.5 54.3%, Phi +1 52.2%, LAC -2.5 55.4%, NO +5.5 51.1%, NYG +4.5 51.0%
That's a clean 5-0 sweep for low probability plays, with this system it seems the number doesn't matter just which side the number points to. If anything its been looking like lower probability is ironically better somehow but unproven yet.
As I said monday I've been working for over a month on 3 different systems with 2 variants each so 6 different variants (theres also tuning I can do on the variants) 5 variants stopped working last week that were shredding weeks 8 & 9 in live testing but fizzled out in week 10 live testing (not backtest but indeed still pregame bets) 3 of the variants went a flat 50% winrate ATS on all games 1 went 3-9 one went 5-7.... and the last one that I present to you today (and same one we used to pick Phi +1 winner monday) went 9-4-1 actually just realized I didn't update the former records for MNF all the other variants except this 9-4-1 variant chose Green Bay so one extra lost to all of those other records so the 3 50% ATS variants were actually a bit worse in the end and then 3-10 and 5-8
That means the 5 other variants likely don't keep working strongly long term but this one has gone something like 72%, 74%, 69% over weeks 8, 9, 10 respectively and is likely to keep working. It's somewhat expected too cause this system was supposed to be the most robust and reliable.
Anyhow the play is NYJ +13.5
What I don't like about it: Linelord POY on NE -13 and he's been on fire, all the experts on NE -13 as well, Jets struggling QB (gonna be cold too) and offense against good NE defense how are they gonna put up points? Or will it turn into another 10-7 type slugfest?, NE is the team with the MVP candidate QB vs the bad QB YIKES
What I like about it: TNF factor may screw up everyone's analysis throwing off NE's rhythm on a short week lack of preparation and historically huge home favorites on TNF are the worst spot to be in on TNF for covering ATS... will cold weather have an effect and help keep it low scoring on both sides? Maybe I don't know... NE also only has a middling DVOA somehow despite a top record, I don't know if its cause they don't pile on a ton of yardage per play or what maybe helps have a slow paced low scoring game in a divisional rivalry on a short week?!
Let's hope for a magical trio of 10-7s last TNF, this MNF, and then this TNF tonight where Jets EASILY cover (imagine the odds on that if you could bet on 3 TNF/MNF primetime 10-7s in a row and the disbelief the oddsmakers would be in if you bet much on it and it landed) hey Raiders were a bad team vs a top team on TNF last week they did it, why not Jets in a divisional rivalry? ;P
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