AddThaHook

Looks like receptions under is going to be the bread and butter with this model. Very disappointed so far with passing yards. Full games was also a letdown. Still a few left. 

@brn2loslive2win

@jowchoo

 Great ideas. I believe we already have these stats parsed in our database. I will write a script this week and back test a few years to see if we can find an edge. 

@brn2loslive2win

 Too add to that, Diggs just had his first child. He could have a heighten renewed emotion for the game! Run it lol!

 I'm loving the prop bets though. Will play them all, well all of the unders. 

@jowchoo

 Agreed. The full game picks are scary, because of the points to be laid. Please remember we are still building and finding bugs. It actually has the Rams game with the highest confidence. 

### ?? TOP PLAYS

1. **Baltimore Ravens -13.5** vs NYJ @ -112 (DK)
2. **Detroit Lions -13.5** vs NYG @ -105 (DK)
3. **Seattle Seahawks -12.5** @ TEN @ -112 (DK)
4. **Los Angeles Rams -7.0** vs TB @ -108 (DK)
5. **San Francisco 49ers -7.5** vs CAR @ -105 (DK)

@brn2loslive2win

 This week will be interesting. We tweaked the code a little and changed the parameters around the confidence system. The back testing performed better than all of the previous models. I'm hoping for a high ROI. I'm playing all picks this week. 

@brn2loslive2win

1. Jake Ferguson UNDER 4.5 receptions @ -109 (DraftKings) - 8.89% edge
2. Tyrod Taylor UNDER 186.5 passing yards @ -110 (WilliamHill) - 8.79% edge
3. Tez Johnson UNDER 2.5 receptions @ +104 (DraftKings) - 8.00% edge
4. Rico Dowdle UNDER 2.5 receptions @ +133 (DraftKings) - 8.00% edge
5. Jaylen Warren UNDER 2.5 receptions @ -149 (DraftKings) - 8.00% edge
6. Caleb Williams UNDER 222.5 passing yards - 7.55% edge
7. T.J. Hockenson UNDER 24.5 receiving yards @ -109 (DraftKings) - 7.35% edge
8. Tyler Shough UNDER 202.5 passing yards @ -113 (DraftKings) - 7.31% edge
9. Alvin Kamara UNDER 14.5 receiving yards @ -110 (BetMGM) - 6.90% edge
10. Stefon Diggs UNDER 60.5 receiving yards @ -113 (DraftKings) - 6.45% edge
11. Geno Smith UNDER 198.5 passing yards - 5.99% edge
12. Matthew Stafford UNDER 256.5 passing yards @ -110 (Bovada) - 5.46% edge
13. Wan'Dale Robinson UNDER 53.5 receiving yards @ -110 (DraftKings) - 5.23% edge

? HIGH-EDGE OVERS ONLY (8%+) (4 picks)

14. Tez Johnson OVER 33.5 receiving yards @ -111 (DraftKings) - 8.66% edge
15. Dallas Goedert OVER 3.5 receptions @ -140 (BetMGM) - 8.57% edge
16. Mack Hollins OVER 2.5 receptions @ +145 (WilliamHill) - 8.00% edge
17. Daniel Jones OVER 243.5 passing yards @ -112 (DraftKings) - 7.76% edge

 Site is down. Really excited about the upgrades that are coming.  My partner is 

Trendcatcher.org

@brn2loslive2win

 I appreciate the kinds words and the feedback. I am hopeful that we will be rolling out an updated site this week that will have an AI analyst tool that users can use to generate a report on players, games, matchups, and raw stats. We have been experimenting with a lot of stuff lately. Stay tuned!

@NinjaNight

 You are correct, it's unbelievably hard to produce a consistent +70% win rate. As another member mentioned prop juice. We are working on refining the current model for props and at the moment 67% on full game is profitable but we will be training that model with more stats. It would've been 75% if we would've posted the fourth pick which was baltimore. It only has the 2025 season data at the moment. The prop ML has 6 years of stats. We will keep working on it. Thanks for checking us out. 

@rosswin97

 Hello, if you go back in the thread, I posted the juice on each play. The API pulls in 6 different books. As you know from being a veteran they could be better or worse depending on timing and access to each book. We spoke about posting all books for each bet, but it just gets cluttered. You're 100% correct, juice on props can make a good w/l record still negative units at the end of the week. 

We are getting ready for week 12 and updated website coming. Keep Trendcatcher.org on your radar.

Here is Week 11 results. Full transparency - we found a bug in the database CSV. Two of the losses would've been winners and two would've not have been selected, if the bug had not been present.

 HITS (14/21 = 66.7%)
1. Matthew Stafford (LAR) - Rush Yds U0.5 (0 yards)
2. Brock Wright (DET) - Rec U2.5 (2 rec)
3. Jaylin Lane (WSH) - Rec U2.5 (1 rec)
4. Kareem Hunt (KC) - Rec U1.5 (1 rec)
5. AJ Barner (SEA) - Rec U2.5 (2 rec)
6. Jake Ferguson (DAL) - Rec U4.5 (4 rec)
7. Kimani Vidal (LAC) - Rec U2.5 (2 rec)
8. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) - Rec U2.5 (0 rec)
9. Dawson Knox (BUF) - Rec U2.5 (1 rec)
10. Mark Andrews (BAL) - Rec U3.5 (1 rec)
11. Javonte Williams (DAL) - Rec U2.5 (0 rec)
12. Terrance Ferguson (LAR) - Rec U1.5 (0 rec )
13. David Montgomery (DET) - Rec U1.5 (1 rec)
14. Javonte Williams (DAL) - Rec Yds U13.5 (0 yds)

MISSES (7/21 = 33.3%)
3. Tyler Lockett (LV) - Rec U2.5 (3 rec)
5. Greg Dortch (ARI) - Rec U3.5 (6 rec)
8. Darnell Mooney (ATL) - Rec U2.5 (3 rec)
9. Sam Darnold (SEA) - Rush Yds U3.5 (11 yards)
11. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) - Rec U1.5 (2 rec)
13. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) - Rec U2.5 (4 rec)
18. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - Rec U1.5 (3 rec)

FINAL RESULTS: 14/21 = 66.7% HIT RATE

A rare pick for a tiny under for  the AI model... hmmm

1 Pick:
- Javonte Williams (DAL) - Receiving Yards U13.5 (Predicted: 7.9, Edge: 8.0%)

LAC -2.5

BUF -5.5

2-1 Trendcatcher AI Full game predictor.

Can't believe how bad the Chargers played. 

@brn2loslive2win

 Good call on Mooney! I definitely have to train the model with the play by play for the game once the week finishes. 

@ari

 Hello, no we have built this in-house. We trained the AI ML and have written scripts to generate a confidence system that gives us an edge. This system still isn't 100% proven yet and is in an experimental state. My partner has been working on updating the site, so it wont be updated with the current picks for week 11 today. Thanks for checking us out. 

@brn2loslive2win

 Here is a writeup that supports why the system picked him. It made a few assumptions. I'm concerned more about London playing/playing well.  

Darnell Mooney UNDER 2.5 Receptions (Week 11)

Falcons @ CAR

The Bet

- Vegas Line: 2.5 receptions
- Our Prediction: 1.33
- Actual Result: TBD ? PENDING
- Confidence: Elite

Recent Performance Trend

| Week | Receptions | Targets | Yards |
|------|------------|---------|-------|
| 10 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | 3 | 5 | 68 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | 4 | 11 | 44 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 20 |

Average: 1.9 receptions
Under 2.5 in 5/7 games (71%)

Note: No stats recorded in Week(s) 6, 5, 1 - likely injury/inactive

Why We Love This Play

1. Crushing Recent Trend
Mooney has gone under 2.5 receptions in 5 of his last 7 games (71%). Even more impressive: he's hit the under in 3 straight games. When a pattern is this strong, you ride it.

2. The Model's Edge
Our model predicted 1.33 receptions vs Vegas' 2.5 line. That's a 1.17 reception gap - massive in the world of player props. This suggests Vegas is overvaluing name recognition or past season performance,
while our model focuses on current role and recent trends.

3. Injury/Usage Concerns
Mooney missed weeks 6, 5, 1. Players returning from injury often see reduced usage as they ramp up, or may be dealing with lingering issues affecting performance.

The Edge

Vegas sets these lines based on:
- Name recognition (Mooney was productive in Chicago)
- Season-long stats (doesn't reflect recent role changes)
- Public betting patterns (casual bettors love overs on skill players)

Our model exploits:
- Recent trends (5/7 games under)
- Current production (1.9 avg vs 2.5 line)

This is a Tiny Unders play - small number props where Vegas overvalues potential and undervalues recent reality. Our Elite confidence rating means the edge is significant.

There are several that I do not agree with. There will be outliers as usual but got trust the machine to stay consistent. I 100% agree on the mooney play.