AddThaHook

WEEK 11 PICK #3: NE -12.5 vs NY Jets + SUMMARY

Confidence: 12.5 | Predicted ATS: -12.5 Weather: 36°F, 13mph wind

THE CHALK PLAY

Model agrees with Vegas completely here - this is a "confirmation play" where the data says the spread is correct.

OFFENSIVE GAP:

• NE: 25.0 PPG, 35.6% 3rd down
• NYJ: 18.4 PPG, 30.5% 3rd down

Patriots score 6.6 more points per game. The Jets move the ball (5.92 YPP) but can't finish drives.

DEFENSIVE DOMINANCE:

• NE: 19.2 PAPG (best defense in this analysis)
• NYJ: 26.8 PAPG (bottom-tier)

Patriots will suffocate the Jets' struggling offense.

THE KILLER STAT - PASS RUSH:

• Jets allow 4.00 sacks/game (worst in league)
• Jets only generate 1.89 sacks/game

The Jets' O-line is a turnstile. Their QB will be running for his life all game.

CAUTION - DIVISIONAL GAME: Yes, AFC East rivals can play each other close. But the Jets are in complete disarray - coaching drama, QB controversy, locker room issues. Patriots are locked in.

THE BOTTOM LINE: NE should pull away in the 2nd half. Expect something like 31-17.

BET: NE -12.5 - SOLID PLAY (but 12.5 is a big number in division games)

SUMMARY & BETTING STRATEGY

Expected Results: 2-3 wins (based on 83.3% historical Top 3 win rate)

Confidence Rankings:

1. LAC -2.5 (13.1) - BEST VALUE / Vegas way off
2. BUF -5.5 (12.6) - SAFEST / Weather advantage
3. NE -12.5 (12.5) - SOLID / Chalk confirmation

Suggested Unit Distribution:

• LAC -2.5: 40% (highest confidence + best value)
• BUF -5.5: 35% (weather edge)
• NE -12.5: 25% (solid but large spread)

What Could Go Wrong:

• LAC: Jacksonville QB has career game + Chargers commit turnovers
• BUF: Wind affects both teams equally (unlikely)
• NE: Divisional rivalry + Jets play inspired (unlikely given their chaos)

Final Thoughts: All three picks have strong statistical backing. If I could only pick one, it's LAC -2.5 for value or BUF -5.5 for safety. Expect at least 2 of 3 to hit. BOL!

WEEK 11 PICK #2: BUF -5.5 vs Tampa Bay

Confidence: 12.6 | Predicted ATS: -12.6 Weather: 34°F, 17mph wind - MAJOR FACTOR

THE WEATHER EDGE

This is the story: Buffalo in November vs a Florida team in 34° weather with 17mph winds. Tampa is NOT built for this.

WHY WEATHER MATTERS:

• 17mph wind kills Tampa's vertical passing game
• Cold = fumbles for warm-weather teams with numb hands
• Buffalo practices in this all season; Tampa doesn't
• Highmark Stadium crowd in November is brutal

OFFENSIVE FIREPOWER:

• BUF: 25.8 PPG (highest in this analysis), 37.7% 3rd down
• TB: 23.6 PPG, 34.2% 3rd down

Josh Allen at home in November is a different animal.

DEFENSIVE EDGE:

• BUF: 21.9 PAPG, 28.9% 3rd down allowed
• TB: 22.9 PAPG, 34.4% 3rd down allowed

Both teams have strong pass rushes (3.2+ sacks/game), but the cold makes pass protection exponentially harder for Tampa's O-line.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Model predicts Buffalo wins by 18+ points. Expect Tampa to struggle all game with ball handling and execution. Buffalo runs away in the 2nd half.

BET: BUF -5.5 - SAFEST PLAY (weather gives massive edge)

WEEK 11 TOP 3 PICKS - FULL BREAKDOWN

Model: V27.4 (56 features + weather data) Historical Top 3 Win Rate: 83.3% (20/24) Date: November 16, 2025

PICK #1: LAC -2.5 @ Jacksonville

Confidence: 13.1 | Predicted ATS: +13.1 Weather: 47°F, 9mph wind (neutral)

THE CASE FOR LAC

Highest confidence rating of Week 11. The model sees the Chargers beating this spread by double digits - Vegas has this wrong at -2.5.

OFFENSIVE EDGE:

• LAC: 24.0 PPG, 6.09 YPP, 42.4% 3rd down
• JAX: 20.4 PPG, 5.28 YPP, 32.3% 3rd down

The Chargers are elite at 6.09 yards per play. That 10.1% gap in 3rd down conversion means LAC will dominate possession and keep Jacksonville's offense on the bench.

DEFENSIVE DOMINANCE:

• LAC Defense: 20.3 PAPG, 28.8% 3rd down allowed
• JAX Defense: 24.4 PAPG, 41.4% 3rd down allowed

LAC shuts down 3rd downs at one of the best rates in the league (28.8%). Jacksonville allows 41.4% - the Chargers offense will move at will.

PASS RUSH MISMATCH:

• LAC generates 2.90 sacks/game vs JAX's 1.56
• Jacksonville's QB will be under constant pressure

THE BOTTOM LINE: LAC should win by 7-10 points minimum. This is the best value play of the week.

BET: LAC -2.5 - STRONGEST PLAY

@AddThaHook

@AddThaHook

 Not sure why my plays didn't show up.

WEEK 8:
Total Props: 46
Record: 39-7
Win Rate: 84.8%
Profit: $3,130 (at $100 units)

WEEK 9:
Total Props: 22
Record: 16-6
Win Rate: 72.7%
Profit: $940 (at $100 units)

WEEK 10:
Total Props: 46
Record: 28-17
Win Rate: 62.2%
Profit: $930 (at $100 units)
DNP: 1

Trendcatcher.org

24. Jauan Jennings (SF) Line: 4.5 Actual: 6 = LOSS 
25. Jaylin Lane (WSH) Line: 2.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
26. Jerry Jeudy (CLE) Line: 3.5 Actual: 6 = LOSS 
27. Johnny Mundt (JAX) Line: 2.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
28. Jordan Addison (MIN) Line: 3.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
29. Josh Downs (IND) Line: 4.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
30. Keenan Allen (LAC) Line: 4.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
31. Luke Musgrave (GB) Line: 3.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
32. Mack Hollins (NE) Line: 2.5 Actual: 6 = LOSS 
33. Mark Andrews (BAL) Line: 3.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
34. Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) Line: 4.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
35. Michael Mayer (LV) Line: 2.5 Actual: 3 = LOSS 
36. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (MIA) Line: 2.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
37. Parker Washington (JAX) Line: 4.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
38. Rashod Bateman (BAL) Line: 2.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
39. Rome Odunze (CHI) Line: 3.5 Actual: 6 = LOSS 
40. Stefon Diggs (NE) Line: 4.5 Actual: 5 = LOSS 
41. Sterling Shepard (TB) Line: 3.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
42. Theo Johnson (NYG) Line: 3.5 Actual: 7 = LOSS 
43. T.J. Hockenson (MIN) Line: 3.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
44. Tyler Warren (IND) Line: 4.5 Actual: 8 = LOSS 
45. Xavier Legette (CAR) Line: 3.5 Actual: 0 = WIN 
46. Zach Ertz (WSH) Line: 4.5 Actual: 4 = WIN 

 WEEK 10 FINAL RESULTS

1. Adonai Mitchell (IND) Line: 1.5 Actual: 0 = DNP
2. AJ Barner (SEA) Line: 2.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
3. Alec Pierce (IND) Line: 3.5 Actual: 4 = LOSS 
4. Brandin Cooks (NO) Line: 2.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
5. Cade Otton (TB) Line: 4.5 Actual: 9 = LOSS 
6. Chris Moore (WSH) Line: 1.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
7. Courtland Sutton (DEN) Line: 4.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
8. Dallas Goedert (PHI) Line: 3.5 Actual: 4 = LOSS 
9. Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Line: 3.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
10. Darius Slayton (NYG) Line: 3.5 Actual: 4 = LOSS 
11. Darnell Mooney (ATL) Line: 2.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
12. Davante Adams (LAR) Line: 4.5 Actual: 6 = LOSS 
13. Dawson Knox (BUF) Line: 1.5 Actual: 3 = LOSS 
14. DeMario Douglas (NE) Line: 3.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
15. Devaughn Vele (NO) Line: 2.0 Actual: 1 = WIN 
16. Dyami Brown (JAX) Line: 2.5 Actual: 0 = WIN 
17. Evan Engram (DEN) Line: 3.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
18. George Kittle (SF) Line: 4.5 Actual: 9 = LOSS 
19. Hunter Henry (NE) Line: 3.5 Actual: 1 = WIN 
20. Isaiah Likely (BAL) Line: 2.5 Actual: 2 = WIN 
21. Jalen Coker (CAR) Line: 3.5 Actual: 3 = WIN 
22. Jalen Nailor (MIN) Line: 1.5 Actual: 5 = LOSS 
23. Jameson Williams (DET) Line: 3.5 Actual: 6 = LOSS 

@brn2loslive2win

 That is fantastic. I'm glad you were able to pick up some units. I will check out the interceptions and see if we can build something around interceptions. The current model focuses on yards and receptions. I will probably post the week 11 closer to the weekend. my buddy said we need to do a discord and/or a telegram to alert bettors when we post picks. 3 weeks of profitability. Maybe the trend can hold up until the end of the season.

@brn2loslive2win

I believe this could be a really good trend to follow. Some of the props I would never play because they seem like obvious overs, but you have to trust the confidence system. My partner will be back live this evening to update the grading. I will say, our full game system went 4-1 yesterday. It was the first time running it. I started to post it but it had few flaws in the writeup, so I deleted the games. The one it missed was the buffalo game. I don't think anyone thought Miami would've won that game. 

@brn2loslive2win

 The odds are live and constantly move because they a prop bets. We have prop odds pulling from odds.api. The odds come from up to 6 different betting sites, so you do have to be diverse to bet some lines. The goal is to bet the ones with 10% juice. Some of these prop bets get crazy on the juice. Thanks for interacting. We are working on a full game prediction platform too, it's hard to win full games with AI predictors. Just hard to get an edge. Have a good night. 

Actually it is 2-1 this week. The bets weren't graded correctly. Still working out some bugs in the grading. Thanks for looking. 

@KarmaStateU2024

 Yeah that's the point. Check out the site. All plays are unders. It was a trend the AI picked up. Also, all picks for week 8 and 9 were unders. We will see. Honestly, I'm still a little skeptical myself but it's already 3-0 this week. Good luck to you

@JFEEZEE

That's a possibility and a big "IF" it continues. We talked about just rolling out the AI analysis on like a pay as you go or credit system and let the users make their own predictions/bets. I really don't like calling plays, because bettors can become unstable when picks aren't winning. I personally coded the frontend and peppered it with warnings lol. We have created a very robust database that can be used to analyze the games all the way down to how many flags a certain ref will throw in a game. I've been a long time follower of a lot of the veterans here (you included), so I appreciate the kudos. 

In-Depth Analysis - 

1. Courtland Sutton WR (DEN) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.0)  WIN
2. Evan Engram TE (DEN) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.8)  WIN
3. Michael Mayer TE (LV) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 2.4)  WIN
4. Alec Pierce WR (IND) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.9)
5. Darnell Mooney WR (ATL) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 0.9)
6. Josh Downs WR (IND) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.1)
7. Tyler Warren TE (IND) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.6)
8. Adonai Mitchell WR (IND) UNDER 1.5 (Our Prediction: 0.4)
9. Brandin Cooks WR (NO) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 1.6)
10. Cade Otton TE (TB) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 4.1)
11. Dalton Kincaid TE (BUF) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.6)
12. Darius Slayton WR (NYG) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.9)
13. Dawson Knox TE (BUF) UNDER 1.5 (Our Prediction: 1.0)
14. DeMario Douglas WR (NE) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.5)
15. Devaughn Vele WR (NO) UNDER 2.0 (Our Prediction: 0.5)
16. Dyami Brown WR (JAX) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 1.9)
17. Hunter Henry TE (NE) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.2)
18. Isaiah Likely TE (BAL) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 2.0)
19. Jalen Coker WR (CAR) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 1.9)
20. Jalen Nailor WR (MIN) UNDER 1.5 (Our Prediction: 0.9)
21. Jerry Jeudy WR (CLE) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 1.7)
22. Johnny Mundt TE (JAX) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 1.0)
23. Jordan Addison WR (MIN) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 3.1)
24. Mack Hollins WR (NE) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 2.2)
25. Mark Andrews TE (BAL) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.7)
26. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR (MIA) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 1.1)
27. Parker Washington WR (JAX) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.2)
28. Rashod Bateman WR (BAL) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 1.5)
29. Rome Odunze WR (CHI) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 3.2)
30. Stefon Diggs WR (NE) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 2.7)
31. Sterling Shepard WR (TB) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 1.9)
32. Theo Johnson TE (NYG) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.9)
33. T.J. Hockenson TE (MIN) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.7)
34. Xavier Legette WR (CAR) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 1.7)
35. AJ Barner TE (SEA) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 1.8)
36. Marvin Harrison Jr. WR (ARI) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.4)
37. Chris Moore WR (WSH) UNDER 1.5 (Our Prediction: 1.1)
38. Davante Adams WR (LAR) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 4.4)
39. George Kittle TE (SF) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.9)
40. Jameson Williams WR (DET) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.1)
41. Jauan Jennings WR (SF) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 4.3)
42. Jaylin Lane WR (WSH) UNDER 2.5 (Our Prediction: 1.0)
43. Zach Ertz TE (WSH) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.8)
44. Keenan Allen WR (LAC) UNDER 4.5 (Our Prediction: 3.6)
45. Dallas Goedert TE (PHI) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 2.7)
46. Luke Musgrave TE (GB) UNDER 3.5 (Our Prediction: 1.1)