WEEK 11 TOP 3 PICKS - FULL BREAKDOWN
Model: V27.4 (56 features + weather data) Historical Top 3 Win Rate: 83.3% (20/24) Date: November 16, 2025
PICK #1: LAC -2.5 @ Jacksonville
Confidence: 13.1 | Predicted ATS: +13.1 Weather: 47°F, 9mph wind (neutral)
THE CASE FOR LAC
Highest confidence rating of Week 11. The model sees the Chargers beating this spread by double digits - Vegas has this wrong at -2.5.
OFFENSIVE EDGE:
The Chargers are elite at 6.09 yards per play. That 10.1% gap in 3rd down conversion means LAC will dominate possession and keep Jacksonville's offense on the bench.
DEFENSIVE DOMINANCE:
LAC shuts down 3rd downs at one of the best rates in the league (28.8%). Jacksonville allows 41.4% - the Chargers offense will move at will.
PASS RUSH MISMATCH:
THE BOTTOM LINE: LAC should win by 7-10 points minimum. This is the best value play of the week.
BET: LAC -2.5 - STRONGEST PLAY
WEEK 11 PICK #2: BUF -5.5 vs Tampa Bay
Confidence: 12.6 | Predicted ATS: -12.6 Weather: 34°F, 17mph wind - MAJOR FACTOR
THE WEATHER EDGE
This is the story: Buffalo in November vs a Florida team in 34° weather with 17mph winds. Tampa is NOT built for this.
WHY WEATHER MATTERS:
OFFENSIVE FIREPOWER:
Josh Allen at home in November is a different animal.
DEFENSIVE EDGE:
Both teams have strong pass rushes (3.2+ sacks/game), but the cold makes pass protection exponentially harder for Tampa's O-line.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Model predicts Buffalo wins by 18+ points. Expect Tampa to struggle all game with ball handling and execution. Buffalo runs away in the 2nd half.
BET: BUF -5.5 - SAFEST PLAY (weather gives massive edge)
WEEK 11 PICK #3: NE -12.5 vs NY Jets + SUMMARY
Confidence: 12.5 | Predicted ATS: -12.5 Weather: 36°F, 13mph wind
THE CHALK PLAY
Model agrees with Vegas completely here - this is a "confirmation play" where the data says the spread is correct.
OFFENSIVE GAP:
Patriots score 6.6 more points per game. The Jets move the ball (5.92 YPP) but can't finish drives.
DEFENSIVE DOMINANCE:
Patriots will suffocate the Jets' struggling offense.
THE KILLER STAT - PASS RUSH:
The Jets' O-line is a turnstile. Their QB will be running for his life all game.
CAUTION - DIVISIONAL GAME: Yes, AFC East rivals can play each other close. But the Jets are in complete disarray - coaching drama, QB controversy, locker room issues. Patriots are locked in.
THE BOTTOM LINE: NE should pull away in the 2nd half. Expect something like 31-17.
BET: NE -12.5 - SOLID PLAY (but 12.5 is a big number in division games)
SUMMARY & BETTING STRATEGY
Expected Results: 2-3 wins (based on 83.3% historical Top 3 win rate)
Confidence Rankings:
Suggested Unit Distribution:
What Could Go Wrong:
Final Thoughts: All three picks have strong statistical backing. If I could only pick one, it's LAC -2.5 for value or BUF -5.5 for safety. Expect at least 2 of 3 to hit. BOL!
@brn2loslive2win
Lets see how these roll today. Top picks from the AI system
Matthew Stafford (LAR) - Rush Yards UNDER 0.5 @ -164
2. Brock Wright (DET) - Receptions UNDER 2.5 @ -173
3. Tyler Lockett (LV) - Receptions UNDER 2.5 @ -110
4. Jaylin Lane (WSH) - Receptions UNDER 2.5 @ -110
5. Greg Dortch (ARI) - Receptions UNDER 3.5 @ -142
6. Kareem Hunt (KC) - Receptions UNDER 1.5 @ -127
7. AJ Barner (SEA) - Receptions UNDER 2.5 @ -117
8. Darnell Mooney (ATL) - Receptions UNDER 2.5 @ +109
9. Sam Darnold (SEA) - Rush Yards UNDER 3.5 @ -113
10. Jake Ferguson (DAL) - Receptions UNDER 4.5 @ +108
TINY UNDERS - WEEK 11
TOP 20 (Highest Edge):
1. Matthew Stafford (LAR) - Rush Yds U0.5 @ -164 (212% edge!)
2. Brock Wright (DET) - Rec U2.5 @ -173 (63% edge)
3. Tyler Lockett (LV) - Rec U2.5 @ -110 (62% edge)
4. Jaylin Lane (WSH) - Rec U2.5 @ -110 (60% edge)
5. Greg Dortch (ARI) - Rec U3.5 @ -142 (54% edge)
6. Kareem Hunt (KC) - Rec U1.5 @ -127 (49% edge)
7. AJ Barner (SEA) - Rec U2.5 @ -117 (48% edge)
8. Darnell Mooney (ATL) - Rec U2.5 @ +109 (47% edge)
9. Sam Darnold (SEA) - Rush Yds U3.5 @ -113 (46% edge)
10. Jake Ferguson (DAL) - Rec U4.5 @ +108 (44% edge)
11. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) - Rec U1.5 @ -193 (43% edge)
12. Kimani Vidal (LAC) - Rec U2.5 @ -110 (41% edge)
13. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) - Rec U2.5 @ +110 (40% edge)
14. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) - Rec U2.5 @ +112 (39% edge)
15. Dawson Knox (BUF) - Rec U2.5 @ -143 (38% edge)
16. Mark Andrews (BAL) - Rec U3.5 @ -144 (35% edge)
17. Javonte Williams (DAL) - Rec U2.5 @ -148 (34% edge)
18. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - Rec U1.5 @ -183 (33% edge)
19. Terrance Ferguson (LAR) - Rec U1.5 @ -108 (33% edge)
20. David Montgomery (DET) - Rec U1.5 @ +102 (32% edge)
@AddThaHook
don’t think I can back the Mooney play today. He had 8 targets last week and multiple drops. The bet was a winner but it took a lot of luck. I’m curious to know why your model likes him again. Thanks again for sharing and I’ll be tailing some and rooting for you guys as usual 
@brn2loslive2win
Here is a writeup that supports why the system picked him. It made a few assumptions. I'm concerned more about London playing/playing well.
Darnell Mooney UNDER 2.5 Receptions (Week 11)
Falcons @ CAR
The Bet
- Vegas Line: 2.5 receptions
- Our Prediction: 1.33
- Actual Result: TBD ? PENDING
- Confidence: Elite
Recent Performance Trend
| Week | Receptions | Targets | Yards |
|------|------------|---------|-------|
| 10 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | 3 | 5 | 68 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | 4 | 11 | 44 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
Average: 1.9 receptions
Under 2.5 in 5/7 games (71%)
Note: No stats recorded in Week(s) 6, 5, 1 - likely injury/inactive
Why We Love This Play
1. Crushing Recent Trend
Mooney has gone under 2.5 receptions in 5 of his last 7 games (71%). Even more impressive: he's hit the under in 3 straight games. When a pattern is this strong, you ride it.
2. The Model's Edge
Our model predicted 1.33 receptions vs Vegas' 2.5 line. That's a 1.17 reception gap - massive in the world of player props. This suggests Vegas is overvaluing name recognition or past season performance,
while our model focuses on current role and recent trends.
3. Injury/Usage Concerns
Mooney missed weeks 6, 5, 1. Players returning from injury often see reduced usage as they ramp up, or may be dealing with lingering issues affecting performance.
The Edge
Vegas sets these lines based on:
- Name recognition (Mooney was productive in Chicago)
- Season-long stats (doesn't reflect recent role changes)
- Public betting patterns (casual bettors love overs on skill players)
Our model exploits:
- Recent trends (5/7 games under)
- Current production (1.9 avg vs 2.5 line)
This is a Tiny Unders play - small number props where Vegas overvalues potential and undervalues recent reality. Our Elite confidence rating means the edge is significant.
@ari
Hello, no we have built this in-house. We trained the AI ML and have written scripts to generate a confidence system that gives us an edge. This system still isn't 100% proven yet and is in an experimental state. My partner has been working on updating the site, so it wont be updated with the current picks for week 11 today. Thanks for checking us out.
Established in 1995,
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