LAGameofInches

Good luck.  Should be a good game.  I have a pie on the way as we speak.  

moot points.  would rather be on NCSU at this point than hoping for Memphis to come back...solid work @ECWG 

I'd be curious to know who you support in tonights game I bet Oklahoma when the lines came out but I also have just gotten hot in CFB, I sucked for most the year.

happy holidays 

And literally the entire game script changed the moment I pressed "submit".  Lamar ran, we used play action, and Lamar read the defense to catapult a TD 

This is a brutal game to watch.  There is something really not right with Lamar.  Sure, Zay has been dreadful with drops but Lamar isn't picking up defenses it seems and is immobile.  I get the weather is cold but ZERO points from both teams is just plain puzzling.    I feel like the Ravens keep running when it's obvious running situations which then brings up long third downs they can't capitalize on.  

UNM has literally beaten nobody (maybe a bad Miss St. counts as somebody) and the only losses that VCU have had were against teams like Vandy and NcState.  They also whalloped VTech.

Idaho State is a covering machine, really solid find (if it wins of course lol).  They also do very well ATS on the road.

Good luck with the plays 

Never been a fan of their coach.  He gets sideswiped like this annually.  They didn't come to play and their QB has missed guys all over the field.  He's not great they have just used him to run on teams which they seem not to be able to do today against a Kansas team that is mediocre vs. the run.  But it's CFB so anything is possible, just how I'm reading the game.  They will need some defensive stops or turnovers 

Good luck @Floridaman.  You got a great number and this sits in a range which makes it hard to digest end of game if there are FT's to be had.  Best case scenario imo (which counts for little tbh) is a Houston lopsided win.  This tournament rewards the teams with the most points with a monetary enrichment so there is that too but ND is not really in the running given they haven't scored many points at all during this tournament.  I'd love to see this game play out into the low 120's (68-57) type of final.

Towson's defense is usually excellent defending the threes but they are very sluggish out the gate.  Their offense has never been very good so they can't fall behind by too many or they won't be able to get back into the game especially given they dont' shoot 3's very well.

Their defense is very very good.  

I capped the Vols winning by 2 myself so that would get you the double if my numbers are correct.  Sitting on Seton Hall and Tennessee, the latter for a lot of the reasons you stated above.  Pretty fantastic team Barnes has and I think Houston will play better than yesterday, but they also exerted more energy than they should have in getting that W.  Opposite can be said for Vols.  Rocky Top 

I don’t have a line in this either strangely enough 

How do you know all the other plays for the rest of the year to make that a play of the year?  I mean we are only weeks into the season.  Though I do like Bama personally I'm just not sure it warrants a POY.

Good luck 

Good thing FH was low scoring b/c seems like the 2nd half has adjusted.  Good luck with all the plays 

Tailed. Thanks. 

Great looking card!

I backed the OVER in our Ravens today, I think they put up a good number of points after last week Lamar will want to have a more Lamar type game at home.  

Good luck on the plays 

Good luck bud 

Good luck today you've got a good read on CBB unders 

What on earth are you talking about?  Who is mushing what?  Post plays then comment.  Good luck to you on the day 

First of all....that KC line shot up after having placed it to 2.5.  That's a pretty sizable jump but I still like them at 2.5 maybe slightly less so than at even.  Here are the other plays I am going to back:

OVER 44.5 (NYJ/BAL)...BIG PLAY!!!:  I think some of these totals are slightly lower for the Ravens b/c Lamar was out for some games so their scoring average on hand is a bit lower.  But there are MASSIVE trends pointing to this being an over and not because Tyrod Taylor is starting against his old team.  But I think the Jets have enough pieces to get 14-17 points, even if they have to use garbage time, and that would mean the Ravens would need to go over 30, which I think there is little chance they don't.  The TT for the Ravens is 29.5 so that's a big tight for me to make a play but the Total seems about right.

UNDER 50 (IND/KC):  I think the game plays more like a playoff game than a regular late season game.  The indy defense is improved, the Chiefs will want to show people they are still relevant, and KC's defense at home has been stellar.  Maybe there is some early scoring here but both teams also tend to settle down in the 2nd halves of games.  I have some nerves here which prohibited this from being a big play but I think in the end this total is a bit high for these defenses and the strong trends that also point to this being an UNDER.

I'm not sure I want to press too much so many games seem pretty tight to me.  I love the Pats to win but the 7.5 makes the spread a bit tough.  And I think that the Min/GB game is a coin toss with the way those teams are playing.  I do like Tennessee with all the points they are getting at home but Seattle is the best team ATS and really good on the road as well.  Alas, I think this is all I will be going with:

CHICAGO FH (-2.5)

NE FH (-4)

KC FH (EVEN)...play up to 3...BIG PLAY!!!

OVER 20.5 (SEA/TEN)...BIG PLAY!!!

OVER 44.5 (NYJ/BAL)...BIG PLAY!!!

UNDER 50 (IND/KC)

Hope everyone is having a great week and wishing everyone a profitable day.  As always, do your own research and, tail or fade, good luck to all...

YTD (NFL):  45-47-2 (BIG PLAY!!!:  14-18-2)

MUCH needed win and some good fortune hitting the BIG PLAY UNDER on TNF with But/Hou.  For the record, I type these myself and I'm human so if there is a mistake, like last time, I will come back and try to adjust it.  I know how to read which team is home and away.  In fact, those are direct areas I look at when analyzing.  I also list the teams with the away team first just as listed in American sports.  

Today is another make or break day and I have found a WEALTH of opportunities in the first half of some of these games.  Usually doesn't happen like this but situationally they are extremely sound and provide a clear advantage for one side vs. the other.  Here are these angles and plays...

CHICAGO FH (-2.5):  The Bears are amongst the tops in FH ATS at HOME where they sit 3-1 ATS while Pittsburgh is only 1-3 ATS on the road.  I understand that Aaron Rodgers OWNS the he's now not playing. And the scoring disparity is also heavily with the Bears who average 15 FH points at home vs. Pittsburgh's 11 on the road.  The Bears will be up for this game if only to focus on finally taking down Rodgers and the FH should play out the way I see it.

NEW ENGLAND FH (-4):  Another one which see the Pats a sesnsational 5-0 ATS in the FH on the road AND the Bengals only 3-2 at home.  Both teams average about the same amount of points but I think the loss of Jamaar Chase will open things up for the NE defense to bring some corner blitzes and force Flacco into early mistakes.  

KANSAS CITY FH (EVEN)...BIG PLAY!!!:  I'm probably in the minority on the board that thinks Indy will create a much closer game in the end for KC.  But Indy hasn't been awesome in the FH of games outside of maybe that Chargers game where they went berserk.  In fact, Indy is only 2-2 ATS on the road FH while the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS at home in the FH.  I believe the Chiefs will be focused and come out waiting to quiet the doubters and that's why I made this a big play.  Oh, and the fact that the Chiefs average about the same as the Colts in the FH making this a solid spot.

OVER 20.5 FH (SEA/TEN)...BIG PLAY!!!:  Just way too low and the Titans have a shot to keep this game close imo.  Probably pretty unpopular given the Seattle defense, but the Titans have been able to score close to 10 points in their FH home games and Seattle is the highest scoring team with 14 FH ROAD points scored on average.  21 gets us over the hump and I think it's low enough where that can happen given Darnold's potential errors on the road.

I have a few more games that I will be posting and then recap.  I'll have to start a second posting since the thread is already past the limits that Covers allows.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...