LAGameofInches

Going to add two more...

NEW ENGLAND FH (-3):  I'm not sure we all realize how bad Atlanta is on the road in the FH.  They score an AVERAGE of FOUR points in the FH of road games this season.  While we all know you can't score 4 points unless you somehow get two safeties (unheard of), that average coupled with the fact that New England is the 6th best team NFL team in the FH, averaging 13.5 makes this play an easy mathematical equation when looking at the analytics.

DETROIT FH (-6)...BIG PLAY!!!:  On those same calculations, the Lions average 20.7 FH points at home the highest in the NFL and Minnesota is chiming in at a sexy 5.5 points in that same opening half.  That's a huge discrepancy and not one that I think will be overturned given how McCarthy has played in the small sample size out the gate.  Plus he will have some rust, something the Lions offensive pieces will not be dealing with.  This will be my second biggest play of the day and I expect this to cash easily.

Ok that's really all I have.  Record is spot on, when others post and show their prowess in the form of a record, they can come in here and challenge how accurate it is.  Ironically I've actually just deferred to that record and I do math all day in what I do so I'm not going to delineate.  I spend a lot of my OWN PERSONAL time sharing this no matter what you think or what ends up happening.  So, as I say, tail or fade, good luck to all...

YTD (NFL):  41-40-2 (BIG PLAY!!!:  13-15-2)

Pretty AMAZING run we have been on.  Thursday night was a layup with the Ravens and Lamar back doing things to the Dolphins they always seem to do.  More importantly for myself, it put me above .500 for the first time this season.  It's been a tough year for once in the NFL and I was really getting slammed on early games and that in of itself was puzzling.  So righting the ship is something I am very very grateful for because I actually do play these games and was quite under water during the slide.

But alas, a new Sunday is upon us.  Not sure how it can follow that World Series, which was probably one of the best I've ever watched.  So hopefully football today will leave us stating something along the same lines, but that is clearly only dependent on how well we profit.  Here is what I am on today...

LA CHARGERS (-9.5)...BIG PLAY!!!:  MAYBE the Tennessee defense somehow locks down the Chargers offense?  Otherwise, ZERO shot this doesn't end up a final by 10 or more points.  Even though the Chargers are 1-4 ATS over their last 5 games, they are an impressive 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 games against Tennessee.  Tennessee have gone a paltry 0-11 ATS in their last 11 at home and 5-18-1 ATS over their last 24 at home.  I'm slamming this and teasing it personally.

OVER 51.5 (CHI/CIN):  These two teams have not shown a lot on defense, especially in these given situations.  The Bears miraculously hit the OVER (a game I was on myself) last week vs. the Ravens though it took the second half for them to make that happen.  The Bengals scored and hemorrhaged points from the start last week.  I know that the coaches will be asking the defenses to show up and do better, but I just don't think there are enough really solid pieces for that to change the fate I see here.

NEW ENGLAND (-5):  SUUUUUUPER tempted to play this as a big play.  I don't think Penix is as good as he might one day be, and Drake Maye and the Patriots keep making believers out of the pundits.  But they have been extremely good vs. the Falcons historically going 7-0 ATS over the past 7 and 3-0 ATS more recently over the past 3.  I do think the total might be a bit low but haven't checked the weather and really love this spot for Vrabel and his motivated team.

OVER 51.5 (IND/PITT)...BIG PLAY!!!:  in the last 12 played between these two in Pittsburgh, 10 have gone over the total.. In the last 5 played in Pittsburgh, all five have gone over the total.  Add to that two offenses that are scoring at a pretty high clip and a puzzlingly inept defense with the Steelers and I'm going to play this as my biggest wager of the day.

Not sure if this post is too long so I will return if I can get it published with perhaps another FH play.  Otherwise, do your own research and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

@Cranky_Hank

Buddy...you might have yourself a winner.  Ohtani is out of MVP, if Dodgers come back it should be Yamamoto.  Regardless, they're not coming back.  I hope Glasnow doesnt' come in until after the 5th.  He's batting practice when he plays the Jays.  Must be a mindset b/c he's otherwise really good.

Guerrero most loved player in Toronto, AND he has been sublime in postseason.  No shot Barger in running unless he hits the cycle tonight, and that's not happening.  Guerreros OPS is unreal like I think record territory.

Jays win and Guerrero is MVP.  And whoever wants to laugh at winning money can do so.  Lot of game left though and Scherzer is prone to HR's.  Though Dodgers have only been hitting solos.

@TapatioMan

I like UNDER it’s Game 7. Not gonna overthink it. Might opt for FH. Not sure I have enough time to post but will do so.

good luck to everyone 

@FillyFlier16

He’s a troll. Nothing to say. Never posts. No humor just again trying to help everyone profit. I’m not perfect but I’m pretty good. 

Effectively, the blue jays are a +125 underdog for Game 7. BUT…if you like Torionto…you get better odds taking Vladimir Guerrero as MVP. He is priced at +155. Unless Scherzer throws a full game no hitter, there is ZERO way he won’t be named MVP. 

So if you want to take Toronto, I’d argue taking Vladimir Guerrero as MVP will get you a better return. Just an angle I see, happy to hear others thoughts 

Hahaha “what’s gonna happen I don’t know”

great quote so honest 

I ask myself how does Ohtani get any better or do more incredible things?  For me it’s called Game 7. Good luck tonight bud 

This was (still technically is) a big game for me given how tough the start to my year has been.  It's crazy how good Lamar is in primetime but even crazier how bad the Dolphins are.  I understand with Lamar we have a very potent offense.  But only 6 points for the Dolphins agains a defense (Bmore) that's not really all that great is enough reason to fire McDaniels.  Even if it's really not his fault.

Won't call it yet, but it's going to happen...

@TapatioMan great teaser bud 

YTD (NFL):  39-40-2 (BIG PLAY!!!:  12-15-2)

There are loads of handicappers on here that I respect. Many are backing the Dolphins which seems logical if you don't know the Ravens quite as well.  They are 8-1 ATS in the last 9 played in Miami, 12-3 ATS over the last 15 played against Miami, and luckily for me Lamar has NOT been playing and the Dolphins just won, so the line is a manageable number.  If I lose, I lose, but I'm not going to go against those numbers or a Lamar Jackson who seems focused and is 19-4 in prime time games.  Does that mean they can win and not cover?  Of course.  But being that Lamar dropped his last prime time affair, and the Ravens are in must win territory, I wouldn't be surprised to see 30+ points again from this offense.

BALTIMORE (-7)... bought half point...BIG PLAY!!!:  If this is a push, so be it, but don't want to lose by the hook.  

I've been on a really solid run and confident to keep that going here.  Heading down to an AI Fest so just hoping I can break away and watch some of it, though I guess it's the 4th quarter that counts most.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

good luck!

@Macwestie1

Thanks, we shall see.  Five in a row so ??

YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS):  26-22-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 8-9)

Been a good run of late. Gonna stick with similar but with Snell pitching I don’t see another meltdown. Yesavage was amazing on the road in New York but I think he’s got a tall task tonight. Not sure if the Dodgers win in the end just too many people think they won’t lose. I personally see them ahead after the first 5 so that’s what I’ll be playing: 

LAD F5 -1/2 (-130)

Too rich for me to play the ML in the F5 so I’m fine with this play. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all…

Tough crowd.  I'll take it.  Been a really solid run hoping some of you caught on.  Now I'm going to enjoy the rest of this game, tempted to live bet for fun.

But for posting purposes, I will be back tomorrow.  My work here tonight is done

YTD (NBA):  0-2-1 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 0-0-1 ATS)

Inauspicious start but not much going on with regards to picks.  I do have a couple tonight that stood out so lets get to the window and cash tickets!

NYK (-2)

OVER 224 (LAC/GS)...BIG PLAY!!!

Hope everyone has had a strong start to your seasons.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS):  24-22-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 7-9)

Been doing pretty well both in MLB and finally in NFL over the past week.  If you remove the extra units (BIG PLAYS are 2 units) the record is actually much better at 10-4-1.  So pretty encouraged and I've been staring at this total all day but continue to ask myself why my reasoning might be off.  After 18 innings last night, it's easy to say that Ohtani might be tired and have heavy legs, leading to potentially a subpar performance.  Sure, that is completely possible but as I had stated in my last thread, the Japanese mentality is not one of going out and lifting weights, but more to be focused and relaxed.  So I think he will be fine.

Where I think the real struggles will be is with the hitters.  I think tired bodies will affect bat speed which will affect the distance some of those hit balls travel.  Today is a very warm day in Los Angeles but the game will start off with shadows given the trajectory of the sun.  That too will help the pitchers.  I just don't see much way that this game goes OVER the total in the FH, as I think Bieber will be very effective.  We all know Ohtani will be.  And, if he were to surprise us with more incredible achievements, it will come in him shutting down the Blue Jays hitters.

UNDER 4 FH (TOR/LAD)...BIG PLAY!!!

Maybe I'll be the fool here but both bullpens are tired so they have fewer arms to draw from.  Both SP's know the challenge ahead and know they will have a longer leash, good, bad, or indifferent.  I think that works FOR the UNDER especially until we are tasked with seeing at just what point the bullpens get called into action.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

@MrBator

I’m gonna probably smash the under today. These batters are going to be tired and the bat speed should be affected. It’s very hot in LA so usually the ball flies out but I think we will see a tight game early. The Jays have been awesome in the F5 but if Springer doesn’t play I think that’s a bit muted. 

Ohtani might be tired pitching but the Japanese mentality is one of constant rest and focus so I’m not sure he’s super hittable regardless. Both starters I feel will have long leashes so there is a scenario where if they aren’t great the manager needs to leave them in which could yield runs. 

Ill post on a bit been in a good run of late 

And by the skin of our teeth @MrBator

Win is a win, however they come. Will be a fun end to the game given the bullpen involvement.

UPDATED YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS):  24-22-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 7-9)

Pretty good outcome, Glasnow crumbled again against Toronto I don't know that we see him start again.  He's great but something vs. Toronto for him.  Great slugfest of a game 

@MrBator

I appreciate the endorsement (better if we collect obviously).  Much respect  

YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS):  23-22-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 7-9)

Have to race to post this but just way too rich imo.  Glasnow has NOT been good vs. LAD lifetime and the Jays are a hitting machine on the road, have been at home too.  Maybe their bats are silenced a bit by a very effective Glasnow, but something tells me Scherzer will be ready and locked in.  I guess in a few minutes we shall see...back to the well, it's benefitted me before when I've run it back so...

TORONTO FH +1/2 (+110)

Probably should make this a big play and add the unit given the generous spread but I'm happy if I can win.  No guarantee here the Dodgers wont' be ahead after 5 but the Jays have been very good in the playoffs scoring in the FH.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Good thing it's only heartburn.  We are opposite tonight though there is a scenario where we both win as I got the number of 10.5 and bought down to 10.  

Hoping you are well