TheBuddah

@Macwestie1

 Good luck Mac !!!

@N1DEADHEAD

 lol thanks bud 

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks Felix - hope all is well bud 

lol   agree

@saigon

 Back at ya bud

In my only posted pick thus far - I went 0-1.  More data better predictions hopefully.   Let's look at some numbers:

        LV    15  14 13 23 24 13

-6  Indy       8  4  9 21 21 28

Indy opened at -6 currently - 7 (madduxsports.com)  .    Indy is better in Off. rushing, Off. passing, def rushing, Def passing, sagarin rank, while LV is better in Sched strength at 13 vs 28.   

There's patterns to follow between the opening line of 6 which the oddsmakers put on the game and the data being displayed.   What i'm trying to do is uncover those patterns.    By collecting previous results with similar scenarios and an opening line of -6 for the home team - I believe Indy takes it and covers the spread.   

My plays:

1. Indy -7 

2.  Denver +5 (-124)   

3. Giants + 1.5   

4. Sea -3.5   

5. Cincy +9.5   

6. Small small ML parlay ( Cincy +440 to Denver +190 to Nyg +115 pays 32.67 to 1)  

Good luck all

And we hit the under as well - oh yea!!!!!  

Madduxsports.com which gets there lines from Bookmaker.com has Del -1 as the opening and currently - 2.5.  In terms of  total off,  total def, sagarin rank and schedule strength the only thing Del is better in is sched strength slightly .   Looking at history, where the opening line is - 1 along with similar scenario - the limited data i have indicates Wky and under.  I’m with ya Bol to us . 

@ealxele

 Thanks bud and back at ya

@magiccarpetride

 Bol - no problem.

@River_fish

 No problem - hope it works out

@REDLINE

 Back at ya bud

Been a long while since I posted - hope everyone is having a great season.   Let's look at some numbers:

        Det.     14  5 15 13 5  7

-6.5  Balt.    5  23 17 31 2 15   

Line opened at -6.5 (madduxsports.com)   and currently -4.5   .      Detroit is better in Passing Off. at 5 vs 23; Rushing Def.  15 vs 17; Passing Def 13 vs 31; and sched strength 7 vs 15  - meanwhile Balt. is better in 2 categories Rushing off 5 vs 14 and Sagarin rank 2 vs 5.  I wish it was as simple as who is better in these categories and you take them it isn't.   There's a reason Baltimore opened at -6.5 vice 6 or 7 .    

Why Baltimore - in this life we have chosen - I find you need something to hang your hat on - I go to my data base and found 22 games since 2004 that were played with this scenario, only 1 had an opening line where the home team had a line of -6.5 - that game was between Indy and NE in that game as well, the line dropped to -5 for NE -  Ne won it 3-26  .     

These situations don't come up that often and probably should avoid but like many of you I want action - I'm riding with history and taking Balt. -4.5    .    Good luck in your choices tonight and this season.   

Great News !!!    Went to Sagarin's website and it looks like he will be doing CFB this year as he has updated his numbers as of August 23 - this year.     I think he will follow suit on the NFL as well - Let's hope he does.    

@sundance

 Thanks for the info. Loved Statfox and glad statsharp.com is at least doing what statfox did in CBB - home and away data - vice cumulative avg data that most all sites provide. 

@JoeStigsOHIO

 Thanks.  Never heard of Sonny Moore - I'll look it up thanks.    

Appreciate the comments info. all - wish everyone a great season.   

@DogbiteWilliams

 Me too .   He actually stopped college baskets in 2023 when USA Today - contract ended . 

@Wizerguy

I hope does - I’ve emailed him before and he always responded - last email I sent was back March - no response .   On his website - no nba or hockey since February - making me think he’s done - hope I’m wrong . 

@Indigo999

 Okay. 

@Biscuiteater1

 Got it -

@Digitalkarma

 thanks a lot .  I know Kenpom did basketball - wasn’t sure about football 

@Digitalkarma

 thanks - will do 

Appreciate the info and comments - All !!!!   

I use sagarin ratings and sos as part of my nfl and college football analysis .    He stopped doing NBA and NHL back in February, not sure if he is done doing ratings or is incapacitated and won’t be doing them this year .   

if you know a website that provides BOTH Rank and Schedule Strength  for either or both NFL or college, please list them  - thanks in advance . 

@djp

 Heritagesports.eu

An economy often grows the faster goods and services change hands (paying for these things - not stealing:) That's why having better roads, internet and other structural improvements are often a great thing.

When people get fired or a factory shuts down - often it is viewed as efficiency as it should be as business folks have looked at their sales or potential growth and determined this aint working we gotta move on.   However, in the government sector - you must look at things as well and make a case for hiring or firing - when things are looking bleak - you have a Reduction In Force option it allows the agency's leadership to fire folks and make the necessary changes to ensure the job/mission can still get done.   When you just fire away you have missteps i.e., nuclear waste employees getting axed.  People needed to process social security payments, etc etc.   

Also, these firings impacts the number of taxpayers, taxes and potential growth of an economy as well.   

When people just do things and you ask why and their answer is Because or Because I can - but really don't have a solid reason why - it ultimately creates uncertainty - unfortunately, no matter what side of the aisle you are on - we can all agree it causes anxiety - not sure to buy or sell - that's where I beleive we are today.   Add in Tariffs that are enacted or even threatened to a degree, can all impact goods and services changing hands faster.   

 I'm surprised the Dow didn't drop a bunch earlier in the week.    Trying to keep hope alive.

Baseball is simply the best.   My favorite sport to bet.    Why - I'm a numbers guy and there's numerous different angles you can come up with an apply to first 5 and game bets.    Winning money is great, however, part of it's the analyzation you do and the win becomes very gratifying from an ego stand point as well as financially. 

There are patterns where the worst pitcher on paper has a negative rating but are favored like 145 or higher and history has shown they win it on the run line repeatedly.  Or a pitcher on paper looks like the worst ever but for the First 5 innings - they somehow pitch like an Allstar and get the under first 5.   

It's simply Beautiful :)     Have a great season all    

I think we all want efficiency in government.   When you throw a bomb at something your left with rubble ( I believe General Milley said that ) .   

It takes effort to win at sports betting or running the government efficiently.  Unless effort is put forth before simply a stroke of the pen it’s going to be a bunch of rubble unfortunately in my opinion.  

As Jessie Jackson said Keep hope alive :)

@vankiep_0007

 Thanks and back at ya bud

@don juan

 BOL to ya

Kc opened at -1.5 currently around 1, over and under opened at 46.5 currently 48.5.   I've looked at the last 9 superbowls and asked myself some questions, here they are:

- 1.5 KC    11 14 8 18 6 20

46.6 Phi    2 29 10 1 1 30       

 1.  Does having the best rushing attack when a SB?   Out of the last 9 if a team had the best rushing rank - they won 1 SB - Phil ranked 4 and they beat NE.   All the other 8 teams lost.   Today's game  11 vs2  - based on the data above - would indicate take KC    

2.  Does having the best Passing Rank-win the SB?   5 Teams who had a better Passing rank in the SB  lost while 4 won - based on this game 29 vs 14 - slight edge to Phi.   

3. The team with the best Def rushing rank - win the SB?  7 out of the 9 - won the SB - KC 8 vs 10 for Phi - means take KC  

4.Having the best Def Passing rank win the SB ?    6 teams with the best passing rank out of 9 won the SB - Phi 1 vs Kc 18 - means take PHI  

5.  Jeff Sagarin provides ranks as well as schedule strength for NFL teams - Does the bestter rank team win the SB - 5 better ranked teams won and 4 better rank teams lost.   Today we have Phi ranked 1 and KC ranked 6 - slight edge for Phi.   

6. Does a better Sched strength win a SB?   6  teams with a better sched strength won and 3 lost - KC ranks 20 Phi ranks 30 - slight edge to KC  

7.  Do favs typically win the SB - 3 games were PK so I didn't include 4 teams were dogs and won and 2 teams were fav and won.    I use madduxsports opening lines. - Slight edge to Phi as they are the Dog.   

Data points 1 and 3 stand out.    My playoff posted plays have been terrible this year.    Based on the data - my conclusion - if you really wanna double your money - fold it up and stick it in your pocket:)   I try to find patterns with the opening lines and scenarios - in this game I have no glaring angles to go by.   Enjoy the game !!!!

Good Luck all