WNBA Picks: Best Bets for Every Team Before the 2024 Season

The WNBA season gets underway in less than a week and our resident WNBA expert Jason Logan has you covered with a best bet for each WNBA team. Find out where the value lies below.

Senior Betting Analyst
May 12, 2024 • 20:12 ET • 4 min read
Phoenix Mercury WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A new era of women’s basketball tips off on Tuesday with the start of the 2024 WNBA season. 

After a massively successful 2023 campaign, which saw more eyeballs on the league than ever before, a star-studded draft class injects the WNBA with top-tier talents, including No. 1 overall pick Caitlin Clark.

I preview every team’s WNBA odds and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for all 12 franchises.

Best bets for each WNBA team in 2024

Expert best bet analysis for each WNBA team

Long gone are the days when you could only get down on Sides and Totals for WNBA games. The rise in popularity has driven more betting action on WNBA odds which means sportsbooks are accommodating this uptick in interest with the largest menu of WNBA futures and props as we count down the days to the 2024 season. And with just 12 teams in the league, it's a bit easier to stay in the know. 

Dream Atlanta Dream best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA title: +5,000
  • Season win total: 17.5 (Over -115)
  • Make playoffs: Yes -200/No +16

The Atlanta Dream have an offense that can run with any team in the WNBA when it’s clicking. Last season, it was tough to tell when that was. Atlanta was by far the most inconsistent team in the league and backed into the postseason playing poor basketball. Yet, it still won 19 games.

Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus are a handful and the club just added guard Crystal Dangerfield to bolster a backcourt that features veteran Jordin Canada, who could miss the start of the season with a hand injury. Atlanta also rolled the dice on a 35-year-old former MVP Tina Charles, who hasn’t played since 2022.

The Dream have an easier road in the East and my WNBA power ratings pan out to another 19-20 win campaign, which is more than enough to get Over the shorter ask of 17.5 victories. Some books are dealing Atlanta at 18.5 wins with the Over at -113.

Pick: Over 17.5 wins (-117 at DraftKings)

Sky Chicago Sky best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +8,000
  • Season win total: 11.5 (Over +100)
  • Make playoffs: Yes +255/ No -350

This is a “shop around” prop that requires you to have a FanDuel account. At that book, the Chicago Sky are priced at -350 to miss the playoff cut, which seems like a pricy ask for some bettors until you look at what other shops are dealing. The Sky to miss the playoffs is listed as high as -600 at other mainstream books. We’re talking almost half off here!

Chicago has plenty of potential, especially after drafting top-tier forwards Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese. But those two thrived on bullying their way to the basket and dominating the boards against smaller college foes. The pro-level pushes back and Cardoso is already down four to six weeks with a shoulder injury. Second-round pick Brynna Maxwell is also out for a similar stint due to a knee injury.

Chicago was the last team to qualify for the playoffs in 2023, needing 18 wins to squeak in. Veterans Kahleah Copper, Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams, and Rebekah Gardner are all gone from that roster and the Sky have a new coach in women’s great Teresa Weatherspoon. I have Chicago pegged for 11 or 12 wins at best, which will get it another Top 3 pick but not a spot in the tournament.

Pick: No Playoffs (-350 at FanDuel)

Sun Connecticut Sun best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +1,100
  • Season win total: 25.5 (Under -115)
  • Make playoffs: Yes -2,000/No +1,000

The Connecticut Sun are big favorites to make the postseason and anything but a ticket on Las Vegas or New York to win the title is “dead money”. So that leaves us with the season-win total. Connecticut posted 27 victories in 2023 but this isn’t the same squad as last year.

Amongst this league-wide injection in youth, the Sun are only getting older. Two of their three top scorers are 32-plus (Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner), Brionna Jones is coming back slow from an Achilles tear, and Tiffany Hayes retired. Connecticut also has a revamped backcourt with new faces Tiffany Mitchell and Moriah Jefferson needing to gel immediately with the core group.

Win totals differ depending on where you bet, sitting as high as 25.5 and as low as 23.5 O/U. The high end of my season projection is 25 wins for the Sun, but that doesn’t account for the stress a compressed schedule will put on this veteran group – most notably in the second half of the summer. Connecticut was 15-5 SU before the All-Star break in 2023 but finished 12-8 SU.

Pick: Under 25.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM)

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Wings Dallas Wings best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +2,500
  • Season win total: 20.5 (Over -120)
  • Make playoffs: Yes -350/No +255

The Dallas Wings will start the season without do-it-all forward Satou Sabally, who’s the glue for the Wings and helped push this team to 22 wins and a strong playoff showing in 2023. Sabally plans to return after the Olympic break, leaving a huge hole in this roster until then.

Arike Ogunbowale is one of the most electric scorers in the WNBA and is backed up by a big frontcourt featuring Natasha Howard, Teaira McCown, and Kalani Brown. But there’s nothing in between. With no perimeter threats beyond Arike, rival defenses can pack the paint and play over the pick-and-roll.

The Wings find themselves in a very competitive West, with Las Vegas, Seattle, Minnesota, and a revamped Phoenix roster making regular dates. My projections sit right on this win total, but I’ll take the plus-money on Under 20.5 knowing Dallas will be in deep for the first two and a half months.

Pick: Under 20.5 wins (+100 at DraftKings)

Fever Indiana Fever best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +2,500
  • Season win total: 21.5 (Under -130)
  • Make playoffs: Yes -250/No +200

Caitlin Clark’s arrival signals a massive shift for the league, as evidenced by the “Caitlin Clark odds” made available for betting by many sportsbooks. No other WNBA player has futures on their season-long output.

The WNBA was already seeing a 3-point renaissance long before Clark was lighting it up from long-range at Iowa. Last season, Sabrina Ionescu set a league record with 128 made triples and Clark will get the opportunity to surpass that in her rookie year. My projections come in between 140 and 152 makes from distance – varying on games played.

I opted for this player prop rather than any of Indiana’s futures because of the unknown. Clark will give the Fever a shot in the arm, but are the offseason odds overhyped? I do have Indiana in line for 20 wins and a playoff spot if you’re willing to lay a little more on that “Yes” prop (ranges from -250 to -310)

Pick: Caitlin Clark Over 130 3-Pointers (-110 at bet365)

Aces Las Vegas Aces best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +100
  • Season win total: 33.5 (Under -140)
  • Make Playoffs: Yes -10,000/ No +1,600

The Las Vegas Aces go for the threepeat in 2024 but like all dynasties, the regular season becomes a bit blasé. Las Vegas knows it will qualify for the postseason, so the emphasis is protecting its players and peaking at the perfect time. 

This year is a bit more difficult due to the Olympic break, which compounds the schedule – especially in the second half of the summer. On top of that, the formation of “superteams” like the Aces and Liberty have prompted other franchises to go big, with Western rivals Seattle and Phoenix loading up for a shot at the champs. 

Las Vegas’ win total is down to 32.5 victories at some books, which would be two wins less than the 34 last year. The Aces are absolutely capable of topping the 2024 total but with coach Becky Hammon pacing her players (many of which will be playing for Team USA), Vegas will leave a little left in the tank for the playoffs.

Pick: Under 33.5 Wins (-140 at bet365)

Sparks Los Angeles Sparks best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +8,000
  • Season win total: 9.5 (Over -139)
  • Make playoffs: Yes +500/No -850

Nobody knows what to expect from the Los Angeles Sparks in 2024. The season win total markets range from 9.5 to 11.5 O/U. What we do know is that Curt Miller will be on the sideline for Los Angeles, and that could be enough to get this team Over 10 wins.

Miller made miracles happen for the snake-bitten Sparks in 2023, winning 17 games with 18 different starting lineups. His 2024 roster looks very different, losing Ogwumike and Canada, but drafting the future of the franchise in Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson with picks No. 2 and No. 4.

Those rookies need to grow up fast but helping them out is a very deep roster, due in part to all of last year’s ailments and the additions of Kia Nurse and Aari McDonald. Getting 10 wins isn’t asking the world (hell, Phoenix won nine games last summer), and that still allows L.A. to suck just enough for a Top 3 pick in the 2025 draft.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-139 at BetMGM)

Lynx Minnesota Lynx best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +6,000
  • Season win total: 16.5 (Over -130)
  • Make playoffs: Yes

If you’ve been reading my WNBA content in the ramp-up to the season, you know I’m “ride or die” with the Minnesota Lynx in 2024. Minnesota is coming off a solid 2023 campaign in which it won 19 games after a 0-6 start, Napheesa Collier emerged among the WNBA elite, and the Lynx qualified for the tournament.

For some reason, however, bookmakers aren’t buying into Minnesota to continue that momentum this summer. I think a lot of it has to do with the moves made by Seattle and Phoenix, rather than actually projecting poor results from the Lynx.

The front office made excellent offseason moves, building one of the deepest backcourts in the league, and have youngsters like Diamond Miller and Dorka Juhasz ready to make the leap in their second year. My model says Minnesota will flirt with 20 wins and a potential No. 3 spot in the West.

Pick: Over 16.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings)

Liberty New York Liberty best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +250
  • Season win total: 29.5 (Over -128)
  • Make playoffs: Yes -3,333/ No +1,200

The New York Liberty won 32 games last season and really found its form in the second half of the schedule, as the revamped roster started to come together. The Liberty boasted a +12.9 point differential over their final 15 games, winning 11 of those outings. 

Not only will they have better cohesion out of the gate in 2024 but the Eastern Conference isn’t as tight as the West. The Liberty will face a softer slate of foes, taking on bottom-tier teams like Washington and Chicago four times each (that could get N.Y. a quarter of the way there).

Unlike the Aces, New York will put importance on seeding and if it’s going to avoid another embarrassing loss to Vegas in the finals, it’ll need home-court. The Liberty’s win total ranges from 29.5 to 31.5 wins across the market, while my season projection is another 32 victories for the Liberty.

Pick: Over 29.5 wins (-128 at FanDuel)

Mercury Phoenix Mercury best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +4,000
  • Season win total: 19.5 (Under -130)
  • Make playoffs: Yes -350/No +260

With a win total hovering around .500 and some new faces on the Pheonix Mercury roster, a postseason ticket seems to be in the cards for Phoenix following a disastrous 9-31 campaign last summer. You may want to pump the breaks on that bet, however.

The Mercury brought in Kaleah Copper, Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen, and Morgan Bertsch, giving support to tent poles Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner in the twilight of their careers. Oh, and let’s not forget Copper and returning guard Sophie Cunnigham already hate each other. That’s a lot of chemistry to cook up with a brand-new coach in Nate Tibbetts at the wheel. 

The season win total for Phoenix sits as low as 18.5 wins, which is right on the postseason cutoff from last summer. And this prop was as high as +280 at some books just last week, before getting bet down to +200 at those same shops.

Pick: No Playoffs (+260  at bet365)

Storm Seattle Storm best bet

  • Odds to WNBA Title: +1,400
  • Season win total: 24.5 (Over -130)
  • Make playoffs: Yes -700/No +500

The Seattle Storm didn’t stay down long and immediately tossed their hat in the ring with the addition of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike this offseason. Putting those veterans alongside Jewel Loyd, Ezi Magbegor, and Jordan Horston gives Seattle a starting five that can run with the Aces and Liberty… on paper.

Adding all that talent up to 25 wins isn’t as simple. Much like the Liberty’s retooled roster in 2023, the Storm are going to need time to figure out just who’s doing what. That slow start could sour their season win total chance right out of the gate. Personally, I’ll be looking to bet against Seattle’s spreads in the early workings of the schedule.

I have the Storm pegged for 23 wins, tempering my expectation due to the overhaul, a lack of depth, and a tougher path in the Western Conference that sends Vegas, Dallas, Phoenix, and Minnesota to Seattle for four games apiece. That said, once they do iron out the wrinkles, the Storm will rain on someone’s parade this postseason.

Pick: Under 24.5 wins (+105 at BetMGM)

Mystics Washington Mystics best bet

  • Odds to win WNBA Title: +10,000
  • Season win total: 12.5 (Under -110)
  • Make playoffs: Yes +280/No. -390

When comparing rosters across the league, the Washington Mystics don’t measure up. For one, veteran star Elena Delle Donne is sitting out this season, erasing one of the most impactful players in the WNBA from the Mystics’ makeup.

Washington is admittedly in a rebuild, not only missing EDD but watching mainstay Natasha Cloud leave for Phoenix. That puts pressure on Brittney Sykes and Ariel Atkins to score more as well as adds weight to Shakira Austin and her health issues.

I think the Mystics can be very strong defensively, especially with No. 6 Aaliyah Edwards inside, but Washington will struggle to score without a go-to option when the shot clock ticks down. I’ll be looking to bet Mystics Unders in the early workings of the schedule and project this team to flirt with nine or 10 wins.

Pick: Under 12.5 wins (-110 at DraftKings)

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