UFC Fight Night Shahbazyan vs Dobson Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Underdog Brings the Heat

Two scrappy middleweights fight for relevancy as Edmen Shahbazyan faces off against AJ Dobson this weekend’s UFC Fight Night, taking place this Saturday, March 23, at the Apex in Las Vegas.

Shahbazyan is no closer to returning to the days where he looked like a potential star, and Dobson might be able to take advantage of his fading confidence.

UFC odds have Shahbazyan as a -190 favorite, and Dobson is a +160 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Shahbazyan vs. Dobson at Saturday's UFC Fight Night.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs AJ Dobson fight odds

Method of Victory	Shahbazyan	Dobson
To win outright	-200	+155
To win by KO/TKO	+155	+725
To win by points	+325	+365
To win by submission	+700	+975
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 20, 2024.

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Shahbazyan vs Dobson picks

Fight prediction: Dobson ML

It has been a rough past few years for Shahbazyan, who cannot seem to find his footing in the UFC. A string of tough opponents like Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Nasourdine Imavov put beatings on him, and he’s gone 1-4 since starting his career 11-0. It’s becoming clear that “The Golden Boy” is not meant to succeed beyond the midcard, and even that might be up for debate.

If Shahbazyan has anything to fall back on, it’s his power. It hasn’t bailed him out of trouble in his biggest fights, but if he lands a big shot early in the fight while he still has his legs under him, it could be trouble for his opponent. However, Dobson is a resilient fighter with a solid chin and has been able to take his opponents to the mat under fire.

The ground is exactly where Shahbazyan doesn’t want to be. He expends too much energy as is, and if he’s already landed some bombs on Dobson to no effect, he might not be able to fight him off. Dobson isn’t going to confuse anyone for Brunson or Imavov, but Shahbazyan couldn’t fight them off forever, and they managed to batter him when his mobility was compromised.

Remembering Shahbazyan just giving up when Imavov escaped his weak guillotine choke attempt in their fight still looms large. So exhausted was Shahbazyan at that point that he just laid on the mat while Imavov got top control and blasted him away with elbows.

Neither of these fighters are going to be major players anytime soon. What it comes down to, though, is that Shahbazyan is likely to get discouraged when he sees Dobson walking through some of his shots and managing to take him down. This could end up being a dog fight as these two will quickly deplete their reserves and will keep going with whatever is left.

I feel that if Dobson can step on the gas early and not get nailed with a big shot, he’ll catch up to Shahbazyan and outlast him for a minor upset.

Prediction: Dobson moneyline (+160 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds

One thing both Shahbazyan and Dobson have in common is that neither is well-conditioned. They both tend to gas out, with Shahbazyan potentially having the smaller tank of the two, as Dobson is a busier striker. Shahbazyan has a power advantage, but Dobson is better at getting his opponent on the mat.  

That means that there could be a good round and a half of two-way action, and the rest might be grappling or rest holds against the cage. Could Shahbazyan blitz Dobson and catch him with something big, avoiding another calamitous loss? Maybe, but Dobson is tough and could weather a limited assault.

What I can imagine seeing is that these two trade moments early on, and once they start to wear, Dobson could get Shahbazyan on the ground. These two are relatively even in terms of their skill level, but Dobson’s resiliency either carries him to a win or serves as his undoing, taking too many of Shahbazyan’s shots. If this fight gets out of the first, and I feel that it does, it’ll threaten to go the distance. 

Best bet for this one is that it goes Over 2.5 rounds.

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+110 at Bet99)

Shahbazyan vs Dobson betting preview

After an 11-0 run to start his MMA career, “The Golden Boy” saw his career take a dramatic turn for the worse once the quality of his opposition increased. Shahbazyan has gone 1-4 in his last five, though losses have come against hardened contenders. Shahbazyan is coming off a third-round TKO loss to Anthony Hernandez where he was manhandled on the ground. He’ll be relying on his heavy hands in this bout as he lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute against 4.13 absorbed.

Dobson is stepping in for Duško Todorović on a month’s notice, but has fared better in recent fights. The tough Dobson displays a solid chin and relentless determination. After losing two in a row, he turned his fortunes around with a well-rounded performance resulting in a win over Tafon Nchukwi. The key to Dobson getting his second win in a row is taking Shahbazyan to the mat, and he’s landing 1.82 takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy.

Both fighters have a negative striking differential, though Shahbazyan has been knocked out three times. Dobson has only gone the distance twice in his MMA career to win, but hasn’t scored a stoppage since submitting Hashem Arkhagha in 2021. Shahbazyan is the younger fighter by five years and has a shorter average fight time of seven minutes and thirty-six seconds compared to Dobson’s twelve minutes and twenty seconds since joining the UFC.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs AJ Dobson tale of the tape

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