UFC Fight Night Lipski vs Silva Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Silva Takes Care of Business

Karine Silva vs. Ariane Lipski is a three-round bout in the flyweight division and serves as a featured undercard attraction of tonight’s UFC Fight Night, taking place April 27, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Silva has been a wrecking ball since joining the UFC in 2021, and she’s ready for her biggest test in Lipski, who is currently on the best run of her career.

UFC odds have Silva a narrow favorite at -155, while Lipski is a +125 underdog. Here are my free picks for Silva vs. Lipski at tonight's UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Ariane Lipski vs Karine Silva fight odds

Method of Victory	Lipski	Silva
To win outright	+125	-160
To win by KO/TKO	+405	+350
To win by points	+390	+375
To win by submission	+1,000	+285
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-27, 2024.

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Lipski vs Silva picks

Fight prediction: Silva ML

There’s no doubt Ariane Lipski has the potential to win this fight with her resuscitated career and recent win streak, but there’s the sense it might not be enough against a potential sensation in the making in Karine Silva. 

Lipski’s striking has never looked better, and her takedown defense has significantly improved, but Silva’s relentless grappling and pressure could make her wilt. Silva is a big flyweight, and her strikes carry a lot of power. While she isn’t a lights-out striker, her striking helps open up her grappling where she is incredibly dangerous. 

Lipski is the kind of fighter who will not be hard to find, and likely to bring the fight directly to Silva and keep it close, which is inviting all sorts of disasters to happen. There’s no doubt Lipski has what it takes to win this fight, but if this fight ends up looking like her recent fights with her dialing the intensity all the way up, she’s bound to make a mistake and get in a bad position on the ground. 

Even if she can stuff Silva’s takedowns and avoid her submissions, I believe Silva has the goods in the striking department to boot. It should be competitive, and it could be a fun brawl, but I’m picking Silva’s overall skill set over Lipski’s recent form.

Prediction: Silva moneyline (-155 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Under 2.5 rounds

Lipski’s recent run has been unexpected — winning as an underdog in each of her last three fights — but Silva represents a tougher challenge.

Shot for shot, Silva seems to hit harder, and her grappling game is leagues above anyone Lipski’s faced as of late. Lipski hasn’t ever been submitted in her MMA career, and she does have good takedown defense, but Silva could potentially score a knockdown during their striking sequences to put her in a bad spot on the ground. 

At the same time, Lipski’s activity and busy striking, combined with that takedown defense, could at least get her out of the first round. Three of Silva’s last fights have ended in the first round, with Yan Qihui being the only one to make it to the second. However, it may take Silva some time to adjust her approach if she can’t get around or disrupt Lipski’s striking rhythm. 

Prior to her recent run, Lipski did have a tendency to make costly mistakes that led to her getting blasted out. It also wasn’t that long ago when she was being dragged to the ground and pounded out by fighters with less of a grappling game than Silva. Though I don’t think Silva gets it done in the first, I also don’t feel this fight goes the full distance with how these two tend to fight. 

My best bet is that the fight goes under 2.5 rounds.

Pick: Under 2.5 rounds (-145 at Bet99)

Lipski vs Silva betting preview

Silva has made quite the impression since making her UFC debut three years ago. She's a physically dominant grappler with good power and striking — landing 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and averaging 4.1 submission attempts per fight while landing 3.37 significant strikes per minute. She's won all four of her fights in the UFC by submission and has an average fight duration of 4:36. 

After a rough 3-5 start with the UFC, Lipski has turned a corner and has won her last three fights, showing significant signs of evolution. Lipski’s recent run has been propelled by her excellent striking, landing 4.27 significant strikes per minute. In her last fight against Casey O’Neil, Lipski landed more than twice as many strikes as her opponent landed and got a second-round submission. 

This figures to feature several fast exchanges between two fighters who strive to gain an offensive advantage. Lipski’s volume striking might be enough to keep Silva from taking her down to the ground, however, Silva’s powerful blows could create an opportunity for a critical takedown. Though Lipski has never been submitted, two of her four stoppage defeats have come by way of ground and pound. Silva hasn’t scored a knockout win since 2019.

Ariane Lipski vs Karine Silva tale of the tape

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