UFC Fight Night Saint Preux vs Nzechukwu Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Nigerian Nightmare Looms

Kennedy Nzchuckwu and Ovince St. Preux are trying to get back in the win column as these light heavyweights face off on tonight’s UFC Fight Night undercard, taking place at the Apex in Las Vegas.

Neither fighter can afford a loss as the waters at light heavyweight continue to get deeper, and we expect Nzchuckwu to deliver a strong performance against an aging St. Preux. UFC odds have Nzchuckwu as a -700 favorite, while the veteran St. Preux is listed as a +440 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Nzchuckwu vs. St. Preux at UFC Fight Night on Saturday, March 16.

Ovince Saint Preux vs Kennedy Nzechukwu fight odds

Method of Victory	Saint Preux	Nzechukwu
To win outright	+440	-700
To win by KO/TKO	+1,350	-210
To win by points	+1,500	+550
To win by submission	+1,400	+550
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 16, 2024.

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Saint Preux vs Nzechukwu picks

Fight prediction: Nzchukwu ML

At this stage of his career, St. Preux can only look good against fighters who have just as much left in the tank as he does. He’s a well-rounded veteran with good finishing instincts, but he hasn’t been relevant since 2017 and has fought just three times since 2021. He’s also 2-3 over his last five, being knocked out in each defeat, and just looks like he is going through the motions.

While Nzchuckwu has likely hit his talent ceiling, it’s been a long time since St. Preux has displayed the level of talent and urgency it takes to beat the “African Savage.” Nzchuckwu is a strong Muay Thai striker with an 83” reach and throws with the intent to damage. He prefers to keep the fight standing, and he usually can do that with his 82% takedown defense rate.

Though Nzchuckwu can get caught and hurt by strikers smarter than he is (like when Dustin Jacoby put him out in one round eight months ago), St. Preux is going to have a hard time setting the pace. Because Nzchuckwu tends to start slow, it does give St. Preux a chance to try and tempt fate, but a 41-year-old veteran isn’t going to come out guns blazing being absent of real stopping power.

There are more ways for Nzchuckwu to win this fight than to lose it. He can stay on the outside and potshot St. Preux until he drops his guard, then denote a big shot on him.

I don’t see the fire in St. Preux anymore. He’s long past the days where he could feasibly spring an upset against opponents like this, and I don’t expect him to last too long here. Nzchuckwu gets back in the win column in this one.

Prediction: Nzchukwu moneyline (-525 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Nzchukwu by KO

Few fighters start as poorly or as slow as Nzchuckwu does. He does take some time to warm up his own engine, but he doesn’t take his foot off the gas once he is. Considering Jacoby used that to his advantage and chin-checked him, I expect Nzchuckwu to use this fight to try and show he can get off to a faster start.

Once St. Preux falls behind in the striking department, he’ll attempt to shoot in for takedowns and submissions. That isn’t going to work on Nzchuckwu, who uses his range wisely and isn’t going to be taken by surprise by an opponent who will be slower than him.

This fight ending any other way than a Nzchuckwu knockout would be an upset. I’m going with the African Savage to score a one-sided knockout as my best bet for the fight.

Pick: Nzchukwu to win by knockout (-190 at Bet99)

Saint Preux vs Nzechukwu betting preview

Nzchuckwu has one of the longest reaches of any active UFC fighter at 83'', rivaling the range of some heavyweights. The kickboxer can deliver some crushing shots with that wingspan, with eight of his 12 wins coming by knockout. Though his striking defense is lacking, Nzchuckwu lands 4.86 significant strikes per minute and stuffs 82% of takedowns.

Time hasn’t been kind to St. Preux, who matured into a solid light heavyweight contender nearly a decade ago. A veteran of 43 fights, St. Preux has slowed down to the point where he’s now averaging a negative striking differential, absorbing three significant strikes for every two he lands. One thing about St. Preux is his application of the Von Flute choke, where he’s scored four submissions with the maneuver.

Nzchuckwu’s chin will be St. Preux’s only way to win, as he’ll have a hard time taking him down to the mat and bypassing his reach to do so. If Nzchuckwu can somehow get off to a decent start, he can quickly close the veteran’s avenues to victory, as he’s 3-7 in his last 10 fights where he’s been outstruck. 

Both fighters are coming off first-round knockout losses, with Nzchuckwu losing to Jacoby last August and St. Preux being put out by Philipe Lins in February 2023.

Ovince Saint Preux vs Kennedy Nzechukwu tale of the tape

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