Max Griffin vs. Tim Means is scheduled for three rounds in the welterweight division and is the featured undercard bout of the UFC Fight Night card.
Both Griffin and Means have seen their fortunes go up and down through the years, but only one of these battle-tested veterans will walk out of the octagon with their faint big fight hopes still alive.
Griffin’s formidable power and the strength of his recent performances have given him UFC betting odds of -190 favorite in this crossroads clash. The rough and rugged Means moves closer to 50 fights in his storied career, but this is another win he’s not expected to score as a +160 underdog.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. Means picks and predictions for October 29 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Means vs Griffin fight odds
Means vs Griffin method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Tim Means | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +500 | +260 |
| To win by Points | +380 | +160 |
| To win by Submission | +1,300 | +1,300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 27, 2022.
Means vs Griffin picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Means vs Griffin betting preview
Griffin and Means are like spare change bouncing around in the dryer. They won’t break the dryer, but they bang around for as long as it lasts. These two have fought the likes of Carlos Condit, Jorge Masvidal, Colby Covington, Belal Muhammad, and others, somehow still remaining in the middle of the pack.
Both fighters are coming off losses and are desperate to get back in the win column. When we last saw Griffin, he was on the losing side of a split decision loss to Neil Magny last March in a fight where he saw a great start go to waste as Magny worked him over.
Inconsistency seems to be Griffin’s calling card, as he isn't able to separate himself from the mid-tier welterweights despite showing some solid talent. He is a solid striker with good power and can make things happen on the ground if he has to.
Griffin lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and lands 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. His average fight length is 12:30, with 11 finishes in 18 wins. He’s also a tough nut to crack, with only one stoppage defeat in his entire MMA career at the hands of Covington in 2016. When he lands, Griffin can do some damage and has dropped his opponents at least once in each of his last three fights.
Means is also coming off a loss to Kevin Holland, where he lost in the second round via D’arce choke. That loss snapped a three-fight streak where he was looking sharp, and when Means can stay off his back, he can be a handful even this deep into his career.
One thing that isn’t looking worn out in Means is his spectacular chin, which might get tested by Griffin’s heavy hands. Throughout his career, Means lands 5.01 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and scores 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes.
As tough as Means is, he is susceptible to submissions, with six losses coming via tapout. Both fighters have thrived as fringe contenders for the bulk of their careers. Now, they fight for relevance in a transitory period for the division.
These are two durable, fan-friendly fighters who must rise to the occasion and fight for the sake of their own professional relevancy. The odds are close, but this could be the fight of the night if these two veterans are on their game.
Means vs Griffin tale of the tape
| Tim Means | Max Griffin | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 171 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 32-13-1 (19 KO) | Record | 18-9 (9 KO) |
Means vs Griffin UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Max Griffin ML
Considering the stakes and circumstances, this would be the kind of fight that Griffin is poised to lose. However, we believe he'll do well here. This should unfold as a typical striking match, with Griffin’s power shots and willingness to aim for takedowns shining against Means’ boxing ability.
Means has a three-inch advantage in height but only a one-inch advantage in reach, so he can get caught by Griffin’s big right hand if he tries to trade with him. If Means gets put on the mat by either a knockdown or takedown, Griffin will get right on him and try to lock in a submission. If Griffin can’t get Means down, then this fight will tend to favor Means the longer it goes on.
Griffin’s heavier hands should score the more eye-catching shots, and his constant pressuring will give him those opportunities to sway the judges in a close fight. We’re going with Griffin to win this crossroads clash.
Prediction: Max Griffin moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Pick
This fight is a toss-up, and it figures to go the distance. Striking durability is not an issue here, as both fighters have been up against some of the strikers in the division with their chins holding up. The only likely outcome outside a decision is Means getting submitted.
Griffin isn’t a submission specialist, but neither was Holland. While we like Griffin to win on the cards at +150, we won't commit to it. The best call for this fight is betting on these two to go the rounds and hear the judge's scorecards at -135.
Pick: Fight to go the distance (-135 at DraftKings)
