UFC 300 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Sterling Won't Settle For Silver

UFC 300 takes place tonight at the T-Mobile Arena, and the landmark card is littered with title fights and bouts with weighty implications. Jamahal Hill returns to challenge Alex Pereira for the light heavyweight title he never truly lost. Meanwhile, Zhang Weili defends her strawweight title against Yan Xiaonan in the co-main event. 

The preliminary card itself is solid, and we’re expecting Kayla Harrison and Aljamain Sterling to score wins, as well as Sodiq Yusuff to spring an upset.

Here are my free picks and predictions for the UFC 300 prelims from Las Vegas.

UFC 300 prelim picks and predictions

Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison
• Prediction: Harrison ML (-450 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-145 at Bet99)

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes
• Prediction: Yusuff moneyline (+115 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Yusuff by decision (+305 at Bet99)

Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling
• Prediction: Sterling ML (-170 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Sterling by decision (+125 at Bet99)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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UFC 300 prelim odds and picks

Holly Holm vs Kayla Harrison fight odds

Method of Victory	Holm	Harrison
To win outright	+325	-475
To win by KO/TKO	+1,050	+350
To win by points	+675	+145
To win by submission	+2,700	+220
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-13-2024.

Former champion and future hall of famer Holly Holm has persevered as a top-level competitor well beyond her prime because she has an ugly style and the experience to use it. She doesn’t make mistakes and is methodical with her approach, but she is 42 and is slowing time rapidly. Kayla Harrison may not be technically better than Holm, but she doesn’t have to be, as her youth and energy should be enough to set a pace Holm can’t follow.

I can’t write Holm off, which is a testament to her veteran guile. Harrison is making her promotional debut after a successful run in PFL, and this is a big test for her. I’m cautiously picking Harrison because she shouldn’t fall victim to Holm’s grappling, but my best bet is the fight goes Over 2.5 rounds.

Prediction: Kayla Harrison moneyline (-450 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-145 at Bet99)

Sodiq Yusuff vs Diego Lopes fight odds

Method of Victory	Yusuff	Lopes
To win outright	+120	-160
To win by KO/TKO	+370	+260
To win by points	+320	+575
To win by submission	+1,400	+290
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-13-2024.

This fight ultimately comes down to whether or not Diego Lopes can get Sodiq Yusuff on the ground. If he does, then the BJJ prodigy will likely keep things there. If he can’t, and this turns into a striking battle, Yusuff will likely dominate him up top and could threaten a stoppage. The discrepancy between their approaches makes this an intriguing fight, but Yusuff’s strong takedown defense tilts this in his favor.

Lopes might be unable to close the distance due to Yusuff’s footwork and speed, and any ill-advised takedowns will result in him giving up a scoring opportunity. As long as Yusuff doesn’t burn himself out fighting off the takedowns or expend too much energy looking for a finish, he gets the win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Sodiq Yusuff moneyline (+115 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Sodiq Yusuff to win by decision (+305 at Bet99)

Calvin Kattar vs Aljamain Sterling fight odds

Method of Victory	Kattar	Sterling
To win outright	+135	-170
To win by KO/TKO	+425	+875
To win by points	+315	+135
To win by submission	+2,400	+450
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-13-2024.

Former champion Aljamain Sterling’s move to featherweight will not come with a soft landing. Calvin Kattar is physically strong, has good takedown defense, and possesses better striking, not to mention that the advantages Sterling had at bantamweight won’t be present here. However, Kattar’s leaky defense and 18 months of inactivity following knee surgery will help Sterling out in an otherwise tough fight.

It is hard to imagine that the 36-year-old Kattar won’t be rusty and have hampered mobility due to his surgery. While Kattar’s takedown defense has been up to par in recent fights, and his striking is loads better than his opponent's, Sterling is catching him at a good point, and his wrestling pressure should carry the fight. 

Prediction: Aljamain Sterling moneyline (-170 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Aljamain Sterling by decision (+125 at Bet99)

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