Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler is scheduled for three rounds in the lightweight division as the featured undercard attraction of UFC 281 from the legendary Madison Square Garden in New York.
Poirier and Chandler are angling to be on the shortlist for a title shot, and fans are salivating at a bout that could potentially be the fight of the year.
Oddsmakers expect Poirier to come up big as a -210 favorite. The always-explosive Chandler is catching up to him as a +180 UFC odds underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Poirier vs. Chandler at UFC 281.
Poirier vs Chandler fight odds
Poirier vs Chandler method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +135 | +380 |
| To win by Points | +390 | +700 |
| To win by Submission | +750 | +1,100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 9, 2022.
Poirier vs Chandler picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Poirier vs Chandler betting preview
Violence and chaos are the real forecast for this bout pitting two of the best offensive fighters in the lightweight division against each other. Poirier has been a mainstay of the division's elite with his only losses in the last five years coming in title fights. Chandler is an established banger, but he needs to prove he can win a high-profile fight in the UFC after going 2-2 since joining the promotion in 2021.
Poirier was favored to wrest the title for Charles Oliveira back at UFC 269 but was no match for Oliveira's grappling and was choked out in the third. This looks to be more of a striking contest, giving the versatile Layfaette native a chance to get back into title contention. There's no doubt that Poirier is one of the most complete fighters at lightweight and has avenues of victory in striking and on the mat.
The "Diamond" has terrorized all but the very best at lightweight behind his excellent striking where he lands 5.61 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and scores 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes at 36% accuracy. Coming into this fight, he'll have a one-inch advantage in both height and reach and is one of the cleanest boxers in the UFC.
The brutish Chandler is coming off his highlight-reel KO of Tony Ferguson at UFC 274 where he front-kicked Ferguson's soul out of his body and into press row. Chandler always throws with bad intentions and is incredibly resilient, even when he's taking a beating. There is no safe time when fighting him as he is ever-dangerous and can land a crippling blow anytime.
"Iron" Mike lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy and 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes at 36% accuracy. The ex-Bellator champion has an average fight time of 7:16 and each of his victories has come by KO since 2019.
There is little to leave to the imagination here. These two will do whatever they can to kill each other as professionally as possible. Poirier's big fight experience does outpace Chandler here, but there is not a moment in this fight where Chandler could land the one shot to turn out the lights. It's a fascinating fight on a card full of them.
Poirier vs Chandler tale of the tape
| Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 154.5 lbs | Weight | 156 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 71.5 inches |
| 28-7-0 (1 NC, 14 KO) | Record | 23-7-0 (11 KO) |
Poirier vs Chandler UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Poirier ML (-210)
While Chandler looked phenomenal against Ferguson and Dan Hooker, there were some glaring issues in the losses he took to Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. He gets hit — a lot — but his style and defensive shortcomings saw him gas out after a furious start.
Poirier has had his way with bangers, including a relatively easy win over Gaethje, with his striking defense good enough to avoid the worst of Chandler's shots. Again, this is where the big fight experience comes into play. Chandler has beaten the guys he was supposed to beat to and lost clearly to the ones where it was going to be tough. So it's no surprise he is now a decided underdog against a fighter who brings his best when facing this particular style.
As fun as Chandler is to watch, there are levels to this game. Aside from Oliveira and new champ Islam Makhachev, Poirier has been the class of the division for some time. Expect Poirier to shine as only a diamond does and turns away the challenge of a motivated Chandler.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier moneyline (-210 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Poirier in Round 2
Poirier has been inactive since the loss to Oliveira almost a year ago, so Chandler might have some success if he's rusty. The thing is, Poirier can do a lot of damage with his sharp jab and leg kicks, something Gaethje had no trouble with. As hard as Chandler hits, his top-tier opponents have taken those shots and worked him over something fierce after weathering the storm.
Unless proven otherwise, Poirier is the better striker and defender, and he'll open up on Chandler toward the end of the first round. From that point forward, a gassed Chandler will be too brave for his own good, and it will only be a matter of time before the stoppage on the ground. I like Poirier to win in round 2 for a +450 score.
Pick: Dustin Poirier to win in Round 2 (+450 at DraftKings)
