Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is the highly-anticipated headline event for UFC 281 betting from Madison Square Garden in New York.
Adesanya will make his sixth middleweight title defense hoping to get revenge against the only man to ever knock him out after Pereira starched him in a 2017 kickboxing bout.
UFC odds opened with Adesanya as a -200 favorite and have shortened slightly with the champ now at -175 and the challenger coming back at +150.
Here are my best free UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira picks and predictions for Saturday, November 12.
Adesanya vs Pereira fight odds
Adesanya vs Pereira method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Israel Adesanya | Alex Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +470 | +270 |
| To win by Points | +110 | +650 |
| To win by Submission | +1,400 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 8, 2022.
Adesanya vs Pereira picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Adesanya vs Pereira betting preview
Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya is coming off a unanimous decision victory against Jared Cannonier in July, which was his fifth title defense.
Adesanya is 23-1 in his MMA career, including 12-1 in the octagon, with his only defeat coming when he moved up in weight to unsuccessfully challenge Jan Blachowicz for the 205-pound belt last year.
Adesanya is a former professional kickboxer and his defeats to Pereira shouldn't overshadow the 75 wins he racked up in the sport. The Last Stylebender is arguably the best technical striker in the UFC and uses his length, quickness, kicking ability, and deceptive power to devastating effect.
Alex Pereira has been fast-tracked to a title shot after starting his UFC career with a 3-0 mark. He's coming off a first-round knockout win against Sean Strickland, who was the first ranked opponent he's faced in the promotion.
The 35-year-old doesn't have much experience in MMA and while he has looked impressive in the octagon, it's apparent that he's getting this matchup largely due to his kickboxing resume.
"Poatan" is the former middleweight and light heavyweight champ at Glory and holds two victories against Adesanya. He's a polished and accurate striker with scary power in his hands.
Adesanya vs Pereira tale of the tape
| Israel Adesanya | Alex Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 79 inches |
| 23-1 (15 KOs) | Record | 6-1 (5 KOs) |
Adesanya vs Pereira UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Adesanya ML (-175)
This is the shortest closing line we've seen for Adesanya since he knocked out Paulo Costa in 2020. That shows how much value oddsmakers (and bettors) seem to be placing on Adesanya's kickboxing losses to Pereira.
Analyzing those two fights is interesting, however. The first bout was extremely close and could have gone either way with Pereira hitting harder but Adesanya landing more overall strikes and keeping up a better pace toward the end.
In the rematch, Adesanya had the upper hand in the first two rounds with Pereira even receiving a standing-eight count after getting pummeled in the second. But Adesanya was put to sleep in the third round after getting caught with Paotan's thunderous left hook (the same shot that put Strickland's lights out in July).
Izzy typically tries to evade strikes entirely while Pereira used his mitts to block shots, which won't work in MMA. If Adesanya could break through his guard when Pereira was wearing 10 oz gloves, he'll be able to land when he's equipped with 4 oz UFC gloves, especially with Paotan often keeping his hands low and trusting his chin in MMA bouts.
This should be a very close matchup but I'll lean toward the more experienced MMA fighter against a guy who's still refining his technique in the octagon.
Prediction: Adesanya ML (-175 at bet365)
Best bet: Fight to Go the Distance - No
Adesanya's last four fights (and nine of his previous 12) have gone the distance but styles make fights and there's reason to think that this showdown won't last the full 25 minutes.
Adesanya is typically able to use his reach and kicking ability to pick his opponents apart at range, but he only has a one-inch reach advantage on Pereira, who also utilizes kicks.
Adesanya's three finishes over the last five years came against Derek Brunson, Whittaker (the first time they faced off), and Paulo Costa, who all fought aggressively.
Because of that, most of his opponents have been wary of his counter-striking and have fought more tentatively. That won't be the case for Pereira, who enters with plenty of confidence and will pressure Adesanya, which should lead to fireworks between the two striking specialists.
With both guys throwing with power and precision, I don't expect this bout to last the full five rounds.
Pick: Fight to go the distance - No (+110 at DraftKings)
