Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba is scheduled for three rounds in the light heavyweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 279 undercard tonight from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It’s sink or swim for these fringe contenders, and lucky for us, they have a tendency to go down swinging if it so be their destiny.
Cutelaba’s inconsistencies have defined his career thus far, but he is a solid -200 favorite to win. Walker, who has gone from a potential title challenger to a loser of his last two fights, is +170 to score the upset in the latest UFC odds.
Let's dive in and see if the underdog can take advantage of those inconsistencies in our Walker vs. Cutelaba picks.
Walker vs Cutelaba fight odds
Walker vs Cutelaba method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Johnny Walker | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +260 | +100 |
| To win by Points | +850 | +550 |
| To win by Submission | +1,400 | +1,500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 8, 2022.
Walker vs Cutelaba picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Walker vs Cutelaba betting preview
These two big hitters are fighting for their promotional lives, which likely will be the continued career narrative for the winner if they can’t right their ship. Both Walker and Cutelaba are missing particular features to their game that have held them back, but this matchup benefits each man as it figures to be a good old-fashioned hoss fight.
Cutelaba has been in with some of the best fighters in the division, albeit with mixed results, but he comes forward with plenty of pressure and is equally strong on the mat as he is with strikes. The Molodvian Sambo specialist averages 4.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, lands 4.81 strikes per minute at 42% accuracy, and has 14 finishes in 16 wins. While he tends to come out strong, he gasses out quickly, which has contributed to his current situation.
Covers UFC 279 Betting Analysis
Walker was a sure thing up until his career suddenly nosedived into the dregs. He’ll come into this fight with a five-inch height advantage and seven-inch reach advantage, and may be the harder one-shot striker here. He lands 3.45 strikes per minute with an astounding 58% while only taking 2.78 strikes in return. Despite this, Walker doesn’t look nearly as impressive when he’s being forced backward or taken down.
This figures to get explosive right away. Cutelaba often comes out firing, and he doesn’t stop moving forward until his cardio issues emerge. If Walker is still around after the early barrage, then Walker could feasibly take back the momentum to put Cutelaba on the ropes. Basically, these fighters have no interest in drawing things out and could end the fight at any given moment.
If there is any time for them to live up to their potential, this has to be it. Another loss for each fighter doesn’t see them tumble down the rankings, but might see them tumble their way right out of the UFC.
Walker vs Cutelaba tale of the tape
| Johnny Walker | Ion Cutelaba | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-6 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 222 lbs | Weight | 205 lbs |
| 82 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 18-7 (15 KOs) | Record | 16-7-1 (12 KOs) |
Walker vs Cutelaba UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Cutelaba moneyline
Cutelaba is favored at -200, and we’re picking him, but he’s a shaky favorite. If Walker can bypass the onslaught from the opening bell, or at least not get too damaged, Cutelaba might be working off fumes partway through Round 1.
However, Walker losing to a compromised Thiago Santos and being blasted out by Jamahal Hill in his last fight should give pause in taking the upset. He was out of his depth against Santos and looked like he didn’t belong after Hill put him out by the end of the first. While Cutelaba has had his rough patches, he’s been in the octagon with some of the division’s best, and that is enough for us to pick him here.
If Cutelaba can keep Walker on the backfoot, pressuring him and not letting him establish dominance on the outside, he’ll win out. We like him to do just that and score a much-needed win.
Prediction: Ion Cutelaba moneyline (-200 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds
Being that these two are not going to rush into things with how devastating a loss is at this stage, and we have two fighters who are only consistent with being inconsistent, we’re opting to play it safe. Big strikers normally don’t pour it on when they know the other guy can give it right back to him, and that hesitancy should get the fight into at least the second round before something major happens.
We see that as being the likely way this plays out, and lucky for us, the fight going over 1.5 rounds pays out a decent +115 to serve as a nice standalone bet or part of a parlay for the rest of the main card.
Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (+115 at DraftKings)
