UFC 276 Adesanya vs Cannonier Picks and Predictions: Adesanya Goes Distance to Keep Belt

UFC 276 is headlined by a long-awaited clash between Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier. As these two explosive strikers get set to do battle, get the best angles on betting this fight with our Adesanya vs. Cannonier picks.

Last Updated: Jul 2, 2022 9:14 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier is the headline event for a stacked card of UFC 276 betting on July 2.

This should be an entertaining clash of striking specialists with the powerful Cannonier facing off against the technical precision of Adesanya. UFC odds ‌opened with Adesanya as a -300 favorite in his fifth defense of his middleweight title. That line has since grown as high as -450 at some books with the challenger Cannonier coming back at +350.

Here are our best free UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier picks and predictions for Saturday, July 2 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Adesanya vs Cannonier fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Adesanya vs Cannonier method of victory odds

Method of Victory Israel Adesanya Jared Cannonier
To win by KO/TKO +240 +550
To win by Points +125 +600
To win by Submission +1,100 +1,700
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 26, 2022.

Adesanya vs Cannonier picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Adesanya vs Cannonier betting preview

Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya is coming off a unanimous decision victory against Robert Whittaker at UFC 271 in February. That was the fourth middleweight title defense for Adesanya who unified the championship by knocking out Whittaker in 2019. 

Adesanya is 22-1 in his MMA career, including 11-1 in the UFC, with his only defeat coming when he moved up in weight to unsuccessfully challenge Jan Blachowicz for the 205-pound belt last year. 

Adesanya is a former professional kickboxer with 75 wins under his belt. The Last Stylebender is arguably the best technical striker in the UFC and uses his length, quickness, kicking ability, and deceptive power to devastating effect.

Jared "Tha Killa Gorrilla" Cannonier is coming off back-to-back wins, most recently knocking out Derek Brunson in the second round at UFC 271. 

Cannonier began his UFC career as a 241-pound heavyweight in 2016. He soon dropped down to light heavyweight, where he went 2-3 with losses against title contenders Glover Teixeira, Dominick Reyes, and Blachowicz. The "Killa Gorrilla" has really elevated his game since moving to middleweight, where he has gone 5-1 with four wins by way of KO/TKO.

The 38-year-old is an explosive striker with dynamite in his hands and he likes to set up his powerful combinations by attacking the lead leg of his foes.

Adesanya vs Cannonier tale of the tape

Israel Adesanya   Jared Cannonier
32 Age 38
6-foot-4 Height 5-foot-11
185 lbs Weight 185 lbs
80 inches Reach 77.5 inches
22-1 (15 KOs) Record 15-5 (10 KOs)

Adesanya vs Cannonier UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Adesanya has been openly lobbying to fight Cannonier for years now and that says a lot about the fact that this will be a stand-up battle that plays into each other's strengths.

While Cannonier is an excellent striker in his own right, he'll have a very tough time landing his more powerful shots against Adesanya, who has some of the best movement and distance management we've ever seen in the sport.

Despite being under six feet tall, Cannonier has an impressive 77-inch reach, but that's still three inches fewer than Adesanya. That length, speed, and technical precision of Adesanya will be too much for Cannonier to overcome.

Prediction: Adesanya ML (-365 at DraftKings)

As dangerous as Adesanya's striking is, only three of his last 11 fights have ended inside the distance. He knocked out Brunson, Whittaker (the first time they clashed), and Paulo Costa, and all three of those matchups had a similar narrative; recklessness from his foes. 

Brunson tried to pressure Adesanya with his chin up and hands low, Costa charged like a bull in a china shop, and even the usually tactical Whittaker chased him around the octagon while throwing looping shots.

Cannonier likes to throw leather, but he's a patient striker who prefers to set up his bigger shots with low kicks and doesn't overcommit. He won't get baited into the traps and counters that Adesanya sets up which will make it very tough for the champ to finish him.

With six of Adesanya's last eight fights going to decision, including five bouts that went 25 minutes, back the Last Stylebender to win by points.

Pick: Adesanya to win by decision (+125 at bet365)

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