The French Open finals are now set with the Women’s draw concluding on Saturday morning in Paris as Iga Swiatek aims to hoist the trophy at Roland Garros for a fourth time in five years. In her way stands a late bloomer in Jasmine Paolini, an Italian who’s put together her best clay season yet after years of solid play.
Will Paolini’s long-awaited run here at the French Open end in a monumental upset, or can we expect business as usual out of the most dominant women’s tennis player in the world?
Let’s take a close look at the French Open odds and how the match should shake out in our preview and prediction.
French Open Women's Final picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Paolini vs Swiatek odds
| Jasmine Paolini | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| +900 | Moneyline | -1,400 |
| +6.5 (+110) | Game spread | -6.5 (-135) |
| Over 17.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 17.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 6-7-2024.
Paolini vs Swiatek match prediction
I mentioned the term “monumental upset” because that’s exactly what we’d see here if Paolini were to win this match and earn her first-ever Grand Slam victory. In fact, this would be just the fourth title of Paolini's career on the WTA level, and the second of any sort of size.
Paolini has put together a career year with 22 wins now in 32 matches. She did a lot of winning over the past two seasons at various levels, but she was handed a number of losses as well, so this is a run that’s been stunning – but hasn’t gone unnoticed.
The Italian has long been a dangerous player on the clay with an Ons Jabeur-like feel to her game, producing some exciting winners in sporadic bunches. She did go 16-8 on the dirt last season and has done most of her good work on this surface, so it’s not as if she doesn’t belong in the second week of a Grand Slam.
Unfortunately, she’s going to run into a player who may be the next Rafael Nadal of tennis. Swiatek has lost just twice here at Roland Garros in her career, and one of those defeats came back in 2019 when she was 18 years old. She’s yet to lose more than two matches on clay since the 2019 season and has done an insane 20-1 on this surface in 2024.
Swiatek’s wealth of experience coupled with her brilliant court coverage and deadly forehand should make it very difficult for Paolini to gain footing in this match and play any sort of offense, and as a result, she should fall here to the four-time Grand Slam champion.
Prediction: Iga Swiatek moneyline (-1,400 at BetMGM)
Paolini vs Swiatek best bet
These two have met twice, and both meetings have been incredibly one-sided affairs. A teenaged Swiatek handed Paolini — five years her elder — a 6-2, 6-1 loss in an ITF clay event back in 2018 and the two met again at the US Open two years ago with the World No. 1 winning 6-3, 6-0.
If you take a look at Swiatek’s Grand Slam results, she rarely offers up the same sort of chances to her opponents at the biggest stages that she does during the heart of the regular season. She struggled a bit with a crafty Karolina Muchova in last year’s final here at Roland Garros, but it should be said that Muchova has far more talent and experience than Paolini does.
Her other victories here in Paris have ended in 17 games or less, and in both of those cases, she took on inexperienced Americans Sofia Kenin and Coco Gauff.
It’s not that Paolini doesn’t have experience on tour, but she lacks any sort of experience in Grand Slam events with 2024 marking the first time she’s made it out of the second round of a Grand Slam, doing so twice now at the Australian Open and French Open.
Swiatek’s ability to back Paolini up behind the baseline should create arduous conditions for the Italian to get any sort of offense off, and without the ability to get on the front foot, she’s as good as gone here. She’s also played more tennis over the course of these two weeks than she ever has, needing three sets to come through her third, fourth, and quarterfinal-round matches.
I like Swiatek to win in a rout here in what’s a sizable mismatch.
Best bet: Under 17.5 games (-120 at DraftKings)
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