For the first time since 2015, Roland Garros will crown a champion not named Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic when Alexander Zverev meets Carlos Alcaraz in the final of Sunday’s French Open.
Zverev boasts a 5-4 lifetime mark over Alcaraz yet is the heavy French Open odds underdog to his 21-year-old opponent. Can Zverev pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with my Zverev vs Alcaraz free betting picks for Sunday, June 9.
French Open Men's Final picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Zverev vs Alcaraz odds
| (4) Alexander Zverev | (3) Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| +225 | Moneyline | -280 |
| +4.5 (-115) | Game spread | -4.5 (-105) |
| Over 39.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 39.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 8, 2024.
Zverev vs Alcaraz match prediction
Sunday’s French Open final between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz pits two players who’ve answered most of the pre-tournament concerns coming into this event.
The book on beating Zverev in big matches went like this: withstand his big serve, avoid the monster backhand, and he'll find a way to beat himself
That hasn’t been the case since his victory at Rome, where Zverev had one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel before roaring back to beat Tallon Griekspoor. The 27-year-old was down two sets to one to Holger Rune and withstood a brilliant first set by Casper Ruud to reach this stage.
Zverev’s big serve hasn’t betrayed him here as it has in the past. The German fired 19 blanks against Ruud, and Zverev can beat Alcaraz that way.
Alcaraz injured his arm in Miami but has fared well in Paris with his boundless energy and a variety of shots. He barely beat Sinner (Sinner won two more points) and played far too many erratic forehands and outright misses with his favorite weapon. The arm injury has affected the Alcaraz serve: he’s been broken 17 times with only 22 saves.
Zverev returns too well for that and he’ll win his first major.
Prediction: Zverev moneyline (+225 at BetMGM)
Zverev vs Alcaraz best bet
I think Zverev gets through this one, but getting spotted +4.5 games against a player like Alcaraz is the best bet.
That’s because Alcaraz can frustrate big-hitting players into doing silly things. Carlito proved that by shellacking Zverev (6-3, 6-1) this spring at Indian Wells. Alcaraz backers have pointed to that match in support of a Sunday victory, but that was before the arm injury, and Carlito isn’t the same player.
Alcaraz missed far too many balls by a wide margin against Sinner, who won two more points than Alcaraz, but Carlito was able to escape because the Italian wasn’t physically capable.
Zverev has played well but has had a career full of disappointments. He was two points away from winning the 2020 US Open and pushed Rafael Nadal to the limit in the 2022 FO semis before a tragic ankle injury caused him to miss nearly two years. While he’s seemed to overcome some of those issues, what he hasn’t done is deliver in a Grand Slam final.
I love a fit Zverev to win this event but if he does lose, it won’t be by more than 4.5 games.
Best bet: Zverev +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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