We’ve arrived at the semifinal stage of the Australian Open odds on the women’s side, and with the first match of the day, we’ll see a rematch of last year’s US Open final between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka.
Will history repeat itself and see Gauff head to the third grand slam final of her young career? Let’s take a look with my free betting picks below. I've also broken down the other semifinal in my Qinwhen Zheng vs. Dayana Yastremska picks.
Australian Open Women's Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka odds
| (4) Coco Gauff | (2) Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| +145 | Moneyline | -175 |
| +2.5 (+100) | Game spread | -2.5 (-120) |
| Over 22.5 (+100) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 23, 2024.
Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka match prediction
Coco Gauff has historically gotten the better of Aryna Sabalenka, most memorably at last year’s US Open final where she came from a set down to lift her first grand slam trophy. That gave her three wins over Sabalenka in their last four meetings, but this match has a much different feel.
Sabalenka’s had a lot to overcome as it pertains to her nerves in big matches, and she seemed to exorcise her demons at last year’s Australian Open by finally breaking through and winning her first slam title.
It came off the back of a dominant 2022 which saw her get over her second-serve yips, and with some great work off the court to improve her movement, it should be said that this is the best version of her we've ever seen.
The Belarusian was leaps and bounds above Gauff in last year’s US Open final, eventually succumbing to the pressure of the moment with the largest tennis stadium in the world cheering her double faults and calling out between first and second serves, but here in Australia, Gauff won’t have the benefit of a home-court advantage.
If you look at recent form, this line is almost a slight to Sabalenka. She has been utterly dominant to start 2024, coming through some incredibly difficult opponents to open up at 9-1 for the year with just two sets lost — both coming in the Brisbane final against Elena Rybakina.
We’ll get into this a bit more below, but I think there are some issues with Gauff’s game at the moment and virtually none with Sabalenka’s. I expect a dominant showing from the World No. 2 here in a statement victory.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka moneyline (-210 at BetRivers)
Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka best bet
The big story in Queens last year when Gauff found a way past Sabalenka in the final was her much-improved forehand. That wing has long been her weakness, and it seemed to improve with every match she played there en route to her title.
Well, that progress has seemed to be erased here in 2024. Sure, she won the title in Auckland to open up the season, but the field she had to come through was significantly weaker than the level of competition Sabalenka tore through in Brisbane before falling to Rybakina in the final.
Here in Melbourne, it’s been much of the same. The road for Sabalenka has been significantly tougher, and she’s managed to make it through without dropping a set. She’s been dominant on serve — something that can't be said for Gauff.
The forehand broke down in a big way against a weak challenger in Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals as Gauff failed to serve out the match from 5-1 up in the second set. The Ukrainian continued to pepper that wing but was simply not good enough to get across the finish line.
Gauff’s game is simply not in the same place as it was in the summer of 2023, and as a result, I think we'll see another straight-sets victory for Sabalenka which resembles the match we saw these two play at Indian Wells early in 2023. There, she was totally overpowered by Sabalenka's game and made error after error off the forehand side.
Sabalenka is yet to drop a set in Melbourne and I don’t see her slipping up now.
Best bet: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 (+130 at DraftKings)
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