We’ve come to the semifinals of the Australian Open, and it’s looking like we could have a first-time winner.
Two former Grand Slam champions make up the first semifinal on the slate, but on the other side of things, we have one player who’s been desperate to lift that first trophy... and another who’s never been this far in a Slam.
Let’s take a look at the Australian Open odds for both of these semifinal showdowns — and my best free betting picks based on how both matches should shake out.
Australian Open Women's semifinal picks and predictions
- SF1 Prediction: Rybakina (-200)
- SF1 Best bet: Rybakina 2-0 (+105)
- SF2 Prediction: Sabalenka (-440)
- SF2 Best bet: Sabalenka -4.5 (-125)
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Elena Rybakina vs Victoria Azarenka odds and picks
Odds
| (22) Elena Rybakina | January 26, 3:30 a.m. ET | (24) Victoria Azarenka |
|---|---|---|
| -210 | Moneyline | +170 |
| -3.5 (-105) | Game spread | -3.5 (-115) |
| Over 21.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 21.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 25, 2023.
Rybakina vs Azarenka match prediction
Elena Rybakina has backed up her excellent second half of the 2022 season and hit the ground running here in Australia, overpowering each of her opponents on these surfaces in Melbourne, which suit her play style brilliantly.
If you’ll recall, it was Wimbledon where Rybakina achieved her greatest feat yet, winning a Grand Slam for the first time. Grass is a surface which rewards power, but more than that, flat groundstrokes. The ball skids off the surface and remains low, wreaking havoc on opponents.
These courts are similarly fast and low-bouncing, which should give Rybakina the extra edge here. I already rate her wins much more than Victoria Azarenka’s, given she took out last year’s finalist Danielle Collins and World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. The match has been on her racquet every time she’s stepped on the court with her dangerous games, and she’s yet to relent.
Prediction: Rybakina (-200 at Caesars)
Rybakina vs Azarenka best bet
I don’t know if Azarenka, at age 33, has the legs to continue digging out low groundstrokes coming from the Rybakina racquet. I also don’t know how she will manage playing in a match where she’s unable to be the aggressor.
She’s been able to get on top of rallies with some aggression and power against the likes of Jessica Pegula and Lin Zhu in recent rounds, particularly coming off the forehand wing. I think Rybakina will overpower Azarenka and take away her ability to take charge in rallies, and I’m not sure how the forehand will hold up.
I’m going to take Rybakina to win in straight sets here. She’s dropped just one set here in Melbourne, and it was a very tight second stanza against Collins, which went 12 games. She crushed Azarenka in straight sets when they met last year at Indian Wells, a surface which isn’t as favorable for Rybakina.
Best bet: Rybakina 2-0 (+105 at DraftKings)
Magda Linette vs Aryna Sabalenka odds and picks
Odds
| Magda Linette | January 26, 5:00 a.m. ET | (5) Aryna Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| +350 | Moneyline | -475 |
| +4.5 (+105) | Game spread | -4.5 (-125) |
| Over 20.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 20.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 25, 2023.
Linette vs Sabalenka match prediction
Similar to the story we covered above, Aryna Sabalenka is simply crushing the ball and hitting through everyone in her path with her all-world power. She’s now won nine matches in a row after having something of a career revitalization last season.
Sabalenka finally conquered her second serve demons in 2022 and found some more consistency on her huge groundstrokes. Mentally, she’s a different player, and that was evident when she made a deep run at the US Open in the fall.
I think these are pretty favorable conditions for the Belarusian, who is a deserving favorite in this one. Magda Linette has been an awesome story, but she’s benefited from a pretty great draw and has simply just stepped on the court and not made mistakes.
Prediction: Sabalenka (-440 at FanDuel)
Linette vs Sabalenka best bet
While not making mistakes is generally a good strategy against Sabalenka, she’s been taking the racquet out of your hands in Melbourne. I thought for all the issues she had on her second serve, Donna Vekic took it to Sabalenka in a lot of rallies. She hung tough and showcased her excellent finishing power.
Sabalenka’s massive return should pose a real threat to Linette here, who doesn’t pack the same punch on serve that Sabalenka does. I think this should be a rather quick match, so I’m going to go ahead and lay the games.
I’d like to point out here that these two have met twice, and on neither occasion has it looked like Linette has had a chance. Sabalenka won 6-1, 6-3 in 2018, and won 6-2, 6-1 at the Olympics in 2021. She’s the alpha in this matchup.
Best bet: Sabalenka -4.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
