Final Jun 17
DAL 88 6.5 o211.0
BOS 106 -6.5 u211.0
Dallas 5th Western Conference50-32
Boston 1st Eastern Conference64-18
TSN, ABC

Dallas @ Boston props

TD Garden

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Luka Doncic Points Scored Props • Dallas

L. Doncic
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
32.5
Points Scored
Projection
29.7
Best Odds
Under
-114
Prop
32.5 Points Scored
Projection
29.7
Best Odds
Under
-114
Projection Rating

The 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Boston Celtics). The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league away from their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 8.3 foul shots per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 10.5 rate last season. This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Celtics, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

Luka Doncic

Prop: 32.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29.7
Prop:
32.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29.7

The 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Boston Celtics). The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league away from their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 8.3 foul shots per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 10.5 rate last season. This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Celtics, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
22.7
Best Odds
Under
-105
Prop
24.5 Points Scored
Projection
22.7
Best Odds
Under
-105
Projection Rating

Jaylen Brown has attempted a mere 17.9 shots from the field per game this year, significantly less than his 20.1 rate last year. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a hard one; they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4). The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games. The Boston Celtics will likely experience a decrease in plays today from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Mavericks). The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 22.7
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
22.7

Jaylen Brown has attempted a mere 17.9 shots from the field per game this year, significantly less than his 20.1 rate last year. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a hard one; they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4). The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games. The Boston Celtics will likely experience a decrease in plays today from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Mavericks). The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

P.J. Washington Points Scored Props • Dallas

P. Washington
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.7
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.7
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

P.J. Washington has successfully made 2.5 treys per game over the last 15 games, 0.6 more than he's made from three over the course of the year. P.J. Washington has tallied 38.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 7.3 more than he's tallied in all games this year on the road. In regard to three-point attempts, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA when playing on the road this year has been the Mavericks. P.J. Washington has successfully made 3.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.6 higher than he's put through the net overall this season without the home court advantage. This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (8th-highest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

P.J. Washington

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.7
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.7

P.J. Washington has successfully made 2.5 treys per game over the last 15 games, 0.6 more than he's made from three over the course of the year. P.J. Washington has tallied 38.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 7.3 more than he's tallied in all games this year on the road. In regard to three-point attempts, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA when playing on the road this year has been the Mavericks. P.J. Washington has successfully made 3.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.6 higher than he's put through the net overall this season without the home court advantage. This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (8th-highest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

Daniel Gafford Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Gafford
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
+114
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
+114
Projection Rating

Daniel Gafford has converted 75.9% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 5.9% higher than he's converted overall this year. In regard to three-point attempts, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA when playing on the road this year has been the Mavericks. The faceoff with Al Horford ranks in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs tallying an enormous 14.9 points per game this year.

Daniel Gafford

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.1
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.1

Daniel Gafford has converted 75.9% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 5.9% higher than he's converted overall this year. In regard to three-point attempts, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA when playing on the road this year has been the Mavericks. The faceoff with Al Horford ranks in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs tallying an enormous 14.9 points per game this year.

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
26.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.4
Best Odds
Under
+102
Prop
26.5 Points Scored
Projection
25.4
Best Odds
Under
+102
Projection Rating

Jayson Tatum has tallied 2.9 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's tallied in all games this season. The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games. The Boston Celtics will likely experience a decrease in plays today from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Mavericks). The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Jayson Tatum has sunk a lowly 5.7 foul shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 6.9 mark last year.

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 26.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.4
Prop:
26.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.4

Jayson Tatum has tallied 2.9 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's tallied in all games this season. The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games. The Boston Celtics will likely experience a decrease in plays today from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Mavericks). The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Jayson Tatum has sunk a lowly 5.7 foul shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 6.9 mark last year.

Dereck Lively II Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Lively II
center C • Dallas
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.9
Best Odds
Under
-108
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.9
Best Odds
Under
-108
Projection Rating

Dereck Lively II has successfully made 0.0% of his 3-pointers while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 6th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Dereck Lively II has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game when playing away from home this year, placing him in the 85th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling. The 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Boston Celtics). The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league away from their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Dereck Lively II

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.9
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.9

Dereck Lively II has successfully made 0.0% of his 3-pointers while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 6th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Dereck Lively II has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game when playing away from home this year, placing him in the 85th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling. The 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Boston Celtics). The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league away from their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.1
Best Odds
Under
+100
Prop
15.5 Points Scored
Projection
15.1
Best Odds
Under
+100
Projection Rating

Derrick White has committed 3.1 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's committed in all games this year. The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games. The Boston Celtics will likely experience a decrease in plays today from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Mavericks). The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (6th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

Derrick White

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.1
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.1

Derrick White has committed 3.1 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's committed in all games this year. The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games. The Boston Celtics will likely experience a decrease in plays today from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Mavericks). The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (6th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

Kyrie Irving Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Irving
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
24.2
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
24.2
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the NBA, Kyrie Irving comes in at the 95th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 35.4 minutes per game on the road this year. In regard to three-point attempts, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA when playing on the road this year has been the Mavericks. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 6.8 three attempts per game (4th-highest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, marking this as a strong matchup.

Kyrie Irving

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 24.2
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
24.2

Out of all players in the NBA, Kyrie Irving comes in at the 95th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 35.4 minutes per game on the road this year. In regard to three-point attempts, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA when playing on the road this year has been the Mavericks. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 6.8 three attempts per game (4th-highest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, marking this as a strong matchup.

Jrue Holiday Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Holiday
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-124
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-124
Projection Rating

Jrue Holiday has converted 65.4% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 14.6% more than he's made overall this year at home. Jrue Holiday has tallied 40.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 7.4 more than he's tallied overall this year at home. When it comes to scoring, the Celtics's exceptional 120.8 points per game with the home court advantage comes in as the 2nd-best in the league over the last 25 games. This year when they are at home, opposing starting PGs have tallied 2.4 three-pointers per game (9th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, identifying this as a positive matchup. Jrue Holiday has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.2% higher than he's made in all games this year.

Jrue Holiday

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.8
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.8

Jrue Holiday has converted 65.4% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 14.6% more than he's made overall this year at home. Jrue Holiday has tallied 40.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 7.4 more than he's tallied overall this year at home. When it comes to scoring, the Celtics's exceptional 120.8 points per game with the home court advantage comes in as the 2nd-best in the league over the last 25 games. This year when they are at home, opposing starting PGs have tallied 2.4 three-pointers per game (9th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, identifying this as a positive matchup. Jrue Holiday has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.2% higher than he's made in all games this year.

Al Horford Points Scored Props • Boston

A. Horford
center C • Boston
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-112
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-112
Projection Rating

Al Horford has attempted 6.8 threes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 2.5 more than he's attempted overall this season at home. Al Horford has averaged 32.1 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 4.6 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season. When it comes to scoring, the Celtics's exceptional 120.8 points per game with the home court advantage comes in as the 2nd-best in the league over the last 25 games. The matchup with Daniel Gafford ranks in only the 100th percentile for difficulty with the opposing team's starting Cs totaling a monstrous 15.6 points per game this year when they have the home court advantage. Al Horford has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 17.5% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year.

Al Horford

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.6
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.6

Al Horford has attempted 6.8 threes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 2.5 more than he's attempted overall this season at home. Al Horford has averaged 32.1 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 4.6 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season. When it comes to scoring, the Celtics's exceptional 120.8 points per game with the home court advantage comes in as the 2nd-best in the league over the last 25 games. The matchup with Daniel Gafford ranks in only the 100th percentile for difficulty with the opposing team's starting Cs totaling a monstrous 15.6 points per game this year when they have the home court advantage. Al Horford has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 17.5% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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