San Francisco @ St. Louis props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 6th-best batter in the league when it comes to his BABIP ability. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the past two weeks, Austin Slater's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 101.2-mph of late. Austin Slater's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 45.2% to 59.5%. Austin Slater's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 59.5% on the season to 76.9% over the last two weeks.

Logan Webb will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Masyn Winn today. Masyn Winn has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.7-mph average last season has dropped off to 85.5-mph. Masyn Winn has been lucky this year, posting a .329 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .286 — a .043 difference.

Alec Burleson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 13% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year. In today's matchup, Alec Burleson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (80th percentile). Alec Burleson's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 90.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 84-mph in the past 7 days. Alec Burleson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 13.1% on the season to 8.1% over the past two weeks. Alec Burleson has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 20th percentile with a 3.72 K/BB rate.

Nolan Gorman is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Heliot Ramos has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.6-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal mark of 96.5-mph. Over the past 14 days, Heliot Ramos's 61% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.5%.

Brett Wisely is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Brett Wisely will have an advantage today. Brett Wisely hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Brett Wisely has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 11.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last week.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Michael Conforto ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Michael Conforto will have an advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.2°, Michael Conforto has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 26.3° angle in the past two weeks.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dylan Carlson will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.2°, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 32.3° mark over the last 7 days. Last season, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 28.6°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.243) provides evidence that Dylan Carlson has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .205 actual batting average.

Patrick Bailey is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Patrick Bailey has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year's 88.7-mph figure. Patrick Bailey has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 91.2-mph. Patrick Bailey's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 46.3% to 52.4%.

Brendan Donovan's batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Matt Chapman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Matt Chapman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thairo Estrada in the 75th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jorge Soler ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the last week's worth of games, Jorge Soler's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.5% up to 18.2%. Jorge Soler has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 93-mph.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.9% seasonal rate to 13.9% over the last 14 days.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brandon Crawford will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Webb today. Brandon Crawford hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Brandon Crawford will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Crawford's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 13.7% to 17.9%.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pedro Pages hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Pedro Pages will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Over the past week, Pedro Pages has posted a 22.6° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Matt Carpenter will have the upper hand in today's game. Bats such as Matt Carpenter with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Webb who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Sporting a 1.91 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Matt Carpenter has displayed good plate discipline, grading out in the 80th percentile.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Trenton Brooks will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Trenton Brooks hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Wilmer Flores has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Nick Ahmed has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Nolan Arenado has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.