Netherlands vs USA World Cup Picks and Predictions: Two-Way Slog On Deck

The knockout stage of the World Cup begins Saturday, and all eyes will be on the Netherlands and the United States as they open the Round of 16 with their showdown in Al Rayyan. 

The Oranje come into the match as favorites, but that doesn’t mean the United States don’t have a chance to pull off the upset Both teams have issues at the attacking end, and both have performed well defensively thus far in the tournament. That means one mistake — or one moment of brilliance — could make all the difference.

Can the United States get their first World Cup victory over a European nation in 20 years, or will the Dutch reach the quarterfinals for the fifth time in six tournaments? We break down our Netherlands vs. United States World Cup picks and predictions for Saturday, December 3. 

Netherlands vs USA odds

Netherlands vs USA picks and predictions

There’s being efficient, and then there’s being ruthlessly efficient. Cody Gakpo has been the latter. Not only has he scored on all three of his shot attempts this tournament, he’s taken just one per match — and each has provided the opening goal of that particular contest. He’s been responsible for three of Netherlands’ five goals in this tournament. 

That’s been important for the Oranje, considering the rest of the team has just five shots on target total. Of their eight shots on goal at the World Cup, four of them came in the group finale against Qatar. Gakpo’s goal against Ecuador in their 1-1 draw was their only effort on target as they managed just two total shots.

That’s not a great recipe for success considering their next opponent. In their three group-stage matches, the United States allowed just five shots on goal — one of which came from the penalty spot against Wales. They held England, who had seven shots on goal against both Wales and Iran, to only three efforts on target in their 0-0 draw. 

The problem for the Americans has been finding a reliable goal scorer. They scored just two goals in the group stage, the latter of which after Christian Pulisic put his family’s future on the line — literally — to give the United States a winner against Iran. They’ve gone six matches without a goal from a recognized striker, and just seven of their 28 shots in the World Cup have been on target. 

In the 2018 World Cup, the Round of 16 saw just three of the eight matches with three or more goals scored. Those matches included a high-powered offensive matchup between France and Argentina, a match between Belgium and Japan that saw a whopping 35 shots taken, and Uruguay’s 2-1 win over Portugal with prolific strikers on both teams.

The other matches ended low-scoring, and three of the five went to penalties. Those matches laid out much like this one does: two teams with stingy defenses and attacks that aren’t going to go out and put up gaudy numbers. There’s a reason the Under 2.5 is so heavily juiced — because this sets up to be a slog-fest that could easily go to extra time.

That’s why, for me, the best bet for Netherlands vs. United States is to turn to the Asian market and take Under 2.25 goals. I can’t see more than two goals scored within regulation, and I’d not be the least bit surprised to see the 90 minutes come and go with yet another scoreless draw. If you want to take the Under 2.0 for a better price I’d understand, but I’ll protect against the two goals just in case. 

My best bet: Under 2.25 Asian handicap (-120 at bet365)

Netherlands vs USA side analysis

The Dutch are favored to win the match in regulation at near even odds, with the draw being favored over a United States win. But when you look at who will advance, the Oranje are extremely juiced, around the -200 range.

The Oranje don’t appear to have any major injury concerns, although they do have some disciplinary concerns with two of their three starting center backs sitting on a yellow card. They’ve now gone 18 straight without a defeat under manager Louis van Gaal, who hasn’t lost in his last 10 World Cup matches that weren’t decided by a penalty shootout. 

It’s been 20 years and 11 attempts since the United States came up against a European side at the World Cup and walked away with a victory, when they ran out 3-2 winners against Portugal in the group stage. Five of those matches have ended in defeat, including the last three played in the knockout stages. Their 1-0 win over Iran ended a five-match winless streak overall.

Much of the United States’ hopes will lie on the health of Pulisic. His groin injury doesn’t appear to be very serious and he’s expected to go, but if he’s not 100% it could hamper their chances significantly. They will also be sweating the health of Josh Sargent, as their starting striker for two of the three group matches rolled his ankle and came off against Iran in tears. 

Netherlands vs USA Over/Under analysis

If you’re hoping to take the Under 2.5, be prepared to risk a lot to win a little. The Under is in the -165 to -175 range at most establishments, and for good reason, as we’ve previously discussed. 

It’s been six straight matches since the United States were involved in a high-scoring affair, and they’ve scored just twice in their last six matches against World Cup 2022 participants. 

It’s not been much different for the Netherlands. They’ve gone five straight with two or fewer goals scored. More importantly, they’re not conceding — only Ecuador has found the back of the net in those five outings. 

Team totals aren’t offering much value either for those looking for some Under action. Your best option, as we discussed above, will likely be on the Asian markets, or perhaps by looking at clean sheet prices. The Netherlands are paying plus odds to keep a clean sheet in regulation, while the United States could nearly triple your money if you wagered on them to do so.

Netherlands vs USA game info

Netherlands vs USA key injuries

Netherlands: Jeremie Frimpong D (Probable).
USA: Christian Pulisic F (Questionable), Weston McKennie M (Probable), Josh Sargent F (Questionable).

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