We’re wrapping up Group C this Tuesday with England vs. Slovenia. England is leading the group but all four teams are still in contention to qualify.
England have to win following two disappointing games, while Slovenia will be hoping to sneak into the next round. I break down the matchup and more in our England vs. Slovenia predictions and Euro 2024 picks below.
England vs Slovenia picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
England -1 (+107 at Betano)
My analysis
Group C comes to a conclusion on Tuesday, with all four teams currently able to qualify for the next round. England face Slovenia in Cologne with the other two teams meeting in Munich. England are front runners in the group with four points but a win is here essential for two reasons. Firstly, winning the group should — at least in theory — open up an easier path to the final.
The other reason is why we're backing England -1 with our best bet. England have to play well following two poor performances in the opening games. There have been plenty of teams who haven’t been great in their first games but for England, it’s a little different; it feels like there are structural issues there.
Gareth Southgate has seen his experiment of playing Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield fail and we’ve also seen a lack of width on the left side of the pitch thanks to right-footed Kieran Trippier playing at left-back and Phil Foden playing on the left side of midfield and drifting in. There’s also an issue with Foden, Jude Bellingham, and Harry Kane also moving into similar spaces in the attack.
Why have I listed all of England’s failings and how does that help us win this bet? Well, the reaction from fans and media has been so loud and so critical that Southgate needs to change something. With that in mind, we’re almost certainly going to see at least two changes to the starting lineup and most likely a tactical change, too.
A changed-up England team gives us real potential. The markets are based on England’s past two games, which have been poor, but a rejigged England lineup could explode on Tuesday. We’ve seen Slovenia finish both games 1-1 but they’ve had just six combined shots on target from 22 total shots.
England, for all of their struggles, have allowed just one goal, a wonder goal from the Danes, and they have the lowest xG (expected goals) against of any team in the competition, proving the backline has actually been impressive.
They'll come into this looking to make a statement and get back to business. If Southgate makes changes, England should win and do so with ease.
Harry Kane odds, prop for today
My best bet
Anytime goalscorer (-120 at Betano)
My analysis
Harry Kane has been one of the players that has received criticism in the past two games, with England’s top goalscorer being taken off after 70 minutes in the game against Denmark. He only touched the ball 22 times in the game but he still managed to score.
We’ve not seen the best from Kane in this tournament, with two sluggish performances so far, but he’s one of the players that could benefit most from changes to the lineup. He’s been served well from Bukayo Saka on the right flank but if Anthony Gordon were to come in on the left, it would put real pace around him, something that would only help him.
He's scored 64 goals in 93 games for England and comes into this after scoring 36 Bundesliga goals for Bayern Munich. If England makes changes, Kane could be the biggest beneficiary.
England vs Slovenia same-game parlay (SGP)
England -1
Harry Kane anytime goalscorer
England to win first half
As bad as England have played in the first two games, the main talking point is how they’ve sat back after taking leads, rather than going on the offensive and looking to extend their lead. That’s something that angers fans and experts alike because of the incredible talent they have in their ranks.
However, it’s worth noting that England have started both games well, playing at a good level until they’ve scored, with those goals coming in the 13th and 18th minutes. They should start well again on Tuesday and will likely hold the lead at the midway point.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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England vs Slovenia odds
| England | Slovenia | |
|---|---|---|
| -270 | Moneyline | +875 |
| Over 2.5 (-110) | Total | Under 2.5 (-111) |
| +360 | Draw | +360 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-24.
England vs Slovenia game info
| Location: | Cologne Stadium, Cologne, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 25, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | Sunny and calm conditions. |
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