Chile vs Argentina Odds, Picks & Predictions: Argentinians Dominate on Day 6 of Copa America 2024

Chile hope to get a result for the fourth time in five meetings when they face Argentina on Tuesday in Copa America 2024 action.

Chile haven’t beaten Argentina in their last six meetings, but they’ve managed a draw in three of the last four. A scoreless draw against Peru sets them up to win their final match and be in contention to advance, but they know a point against Argentina would make that place even more secure.

Argentina were able to break through against a scrappy Canadian side and win 2-0, but they’ll be left rueing some of the chances they missed. A win here gives them six points and likely secures first place, which could provide Lionel Messi a chance to rest ahead of the knockout stage. Find out where the best bets lie in our Chile vs. Argentina prediction and Euro 2024 picks below.

Chile vs Argentina picks, predictions, and betting tips

My best bet:
Rodrigo De Paul 60+ passes (-115 at Betano)

My analysis
The fight for second place in Group A will be an intense one, and it could come down to a tiebreaker of goal differential. For that reason, I’m expecting Chile to sit back and play for a clean sheet against Argentina. However, that’s a strategy that will concede quite a bit of possession to Argentina, and force them to work the ball around for a while to generate chances. That means lots of passing — something Rodrigo De Paul is happy to do.

De Paul was heavily involved in the opener for Argentina, attempting 63 passes against Canada in their 2-0 victory. He created three chances from 75 touches, with only four players having more touches on the day.

At the 2022 World Cup, De Paul had 60+ passes in five of the seven matches. The only two matches he failed to do so, he was subbed off before the 75th minute. In CONMEBOL qualifying, he reached the 60-pass mark in five of six matches.

That includes their win against Ecuador last September, a 1-0 victory in which he lined up with Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister. He registered over 100 passes on the day, despite being the least offensive-minded player in the trio.

De Paul is expected to be in the midfield on Tuesday with Mac Allister once again, while Giovanni Lo Celso is expected by many to replace Leandro Paredes in the other spot. This means De Paul will likely be the deeper-lying player of the three, or at worst the box-to-box man.

Against Chile’s low block, this will allow him plenty of opportunities on the ball as he helps cycle the ball while they look for angles of attack. Additionally, when the opponents do attack, he’ll be in position to either win the ball back — as he did with five recoveries against Canada — or be the link between defense and attack. 

Lionel Messi odds, prop for today

My best bet
Over 1.5 shots on goal (-115 at Betano)

My analysis
In his last five starts for Argentina, Lionel Messi has attempted 24 shots. Of those efforts, 14 have been on target, including three against Canada. Messi has posted multiple shots on goal in three of those matches, with two of those outings seeing him test the keeper five different times.

Through the first six rounds of CONMEBOL qualifying for the World Cup, Chile has allowed 23 shots on target. That’s the third most of any nation behind only Peru and Bolivia. And while they held Peru to just seven shots in their opening match, they allowed four efforts on goal.

Peru striker Gianluca Lapadula managed two attempts on goal from dangerous areas inside the box, and I expect Messi to get similar opportunities here. Chile knows a point here could set them up to take second place with a win in the final match, and they’ll look to sit back. 

Messi isn’t afraid to shoot from outside the area if he has to, as two of his six shots against Canada came from distance. He shot more as the match opened up, with all three of his attempts on goal coming after halftime. If Argentina get the lead as I expect them to, he’ll get more chances yet again to take advantage of open spaces. We’ll back him to test the goalkeeper at least twice before the night is through.

Chile vs Argentina same-game parlay (SGP)

Rodrigo De Paul 60+ passes

Argentina -1

Lionel Messi Over 1.5 shots on goal

+590 at Betano

Chile aren’t a bad team, and they defend fairly well, but so far in CONMEBOL qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, they’ve played two matches where they conceded three goals and lost by multiple tallies. One of those was against Uruguay, the team I view to be most similar to Argentina in how they play. In that match, Uruguay won 3-1 as they outshot Chile 18-7 and held a 7-2 edge in shots on target.

Those are almost identical marks to those from Argentina’s 2-0 win to open the tournament against Canada. A 19-10 shot advantage for La Seleccion saw them rack up chance after chance, with 3.02 xG from their nine shots on target — against just two for Canada. 

If Chile allows Argentina that many chances to score, it’s going to be another multi-goal defeat for them. I’ll back Argentina to do just that and cover the spread, which — combined with our best bets — presents a healthy SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Chile vs Argentina odds

Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-25.

Chile vs Argentina game info

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