The top spot in Group D is on the line as Brazil and Colombia collide in Santa Clara on July 2, with El Selecao needing the three points to avoid a second-place finish.
The Brazilians rebounded from a disappointing goalless draw with Costa Rica by thumping Paraguay 4-1 on Friday behind a Vinicius Jr. double, and they enter as favorites here in the latest Copa America 2024 odds.
My Brazil vs. Colombia prediction expects plenty more goals to come in this tilt.
Brazil vs Colombia picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Over 2.5 (+105 at Betano)
My analysis
"Good things are coming for Brazilian football once again,"
That was Dorival Junior’s verdict after the classy win over Paraguay, and there was no denying Brazil moved through the gears more impressively than in their opening Copa America fixture.
The Brazilians raced into a 3-0 half-time lead on Friday, and I expect that ruthlessness to carry over into this Group D decider — making Over 2.5 goals an attractive pick.
With Savio making an impact on the right of the front three and linking up with Vini Jr. and Rodrygo, El Selecao looked slicker and more incisive. They’ve now netted three or more goals in three of their last five outings.
But Colombia’s group stage performances have showcased good things of their own. Their five goals have come from five different scorers, and the direct style of Luis Diaz should stretch the Brazil back four.
Their hot streak in the final third extends back to the start of 2024. Nestor Lorenzo’s men have netted three or more goals in four of their past five contests, including a 5-1 victory over the USMNT in the lead-up to this tournament.
With Brazil chasing three points for the chance to leapfrog Colombia in the group standings, I don’t see this game drifting into a pedestrian stalemate. Nor are the Colombians likely to sit back, considering they had 64% of the possession against Costa Rica.
There are scoring threats on both benches, too, from Brazil’s Endrick and Raphinha to Colombia’s Jhon Duran and Rafael Borré.
A quarterfinal against surging Uruguay likely awaits the runner-up in Group D, and both teams should be eager to avoid that test. I’m predicting an open, attacking matchup.
Rodrygo odds, prop for today
My best bet
Anytime goalscorer (+220 at Betano)
My analysis
Despite being kept off the scoresheet in both games so far, Rodrygo is set for a big role, whether he gets on the ball in more central areas as a false No. 9 or drifts out to the wings.
Trends point to Rodrygo testing Colombia keeper Camilo Vargas. The Real Madrid man has had 14 shots across his last three outings for Brazil, and I’m jumping on these odds for him to pop up with a crucial strike here.
Brazil vs Colombia same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 2.5
Brazil moneyline
Over 8.5 shots on target
This feels like a tighter battle than the odds suggest, and it’s somewhat surprising to see Colombia as a +360 underdog. The Brazilians' struggles to break through in their tournament opener served as a wake-up call, and we saw a better reflection of their collective talent against Paraguay.
While I don’t expect the Colombians to be fazed by the task ahead of them here, especially after snatching a 2-1 victory against Brazil last November, I prefer to trust El Selecao to grind out the win they need to top Group D.
The Over on 8.5 shots on target also offers real value. Neither team is shy about letting fly. Both managed 17 shots in Friday’s fixtures, and I see enough of those working the keepers to cash this prop.
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Brazil vs Colombia odds
| Brazil | Colombia | |
|---|---|---|
| -115 | Moneyline | +360 |
| Over 2.5 (+105) | Total | Under 2.5 (-128) |
| +265 | Draw | +265 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-1
Brazil vs Colombia game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 2, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS2 |
| Weather: | Warm, dry conditions, with temperatures in the high 70s |
Not intended for use in MA.
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