Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions and Picks: Advantage Goes to the Hosts

The Champions League quarterfinals continue and we have a fascinating clash in Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund today.

While both are giant clubs, they’re not among the favorites for this competition. Given the current Champions League Odds, this tie should come down to the wire with Atletico slight favorites to qualify for the semis. 

Can they make good and get off to a winning start? Find out in our free Champions League picks and predictions for Atletico Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday, April 10th. 

Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund best odds

Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions

With Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund meeting on Wednesday it’s worth remembering that both teams have been Champions League finalists over the past decade. Neither Atletico nor Dortmund are playing at the level that they were in their prime but they’re still both very good teams and one who can take on anybody. 

The home side are fourth in La Liga. They’re behind Real Madrid and Barcelona, as they so often have been before, but they have now lost their status as Spain’s third-best team to upstarts Girona, who have surprised everyone and are having an incredible season.

Then we have Dortmund, who are forever the bridesmaid to Bayern Munich and as recently as last season should have won the Bundesliga but sensationally choked on the final day, handing the title to the Bavarians. The issue this season for Dortmund is that they’re fifth in the table and also sit behind Stuttgart and Leipzig. They started the season in terrible form but have picked up hugely over recent months, that should mean overtaking Leipzig is possible but Stuttgart will be tougher to catch up. 

So with two teams who have failed to impress this season, how do we bet on this game? The answer to that is simple: we trust the identity of each team.

Atletico may only have won two of their last four but this is a time who are primed, as they always are, for big European games. They come into this off the back of a 2-1 win over Villarreal, three points they desperately needed after a big loss to Barcelona in, in which they ended the game with fewer than 11.

This is about home form and Atletico have turned the Metropolitan into a fortress. They’ve won 13 of 15 home games in La Liga this year, with that 3-0 loss to Barcelona and a draw to Getafe, as their only slip-ups. That’s an incredible run of form and with the stadium rocking, as it always does under the floodlights in the Champions League, it’s set up for Atletico to win.

Throughout the Diego Simeone era at Atletico, we’ve seen time and again that he brings his teams into these games hungry for victory. His players run out onto the field and give their all and the crowd reciprocates with noise. His teams play hard, aggressive, and often very dirty. Winning is everything to Simeone, regardless of how it looks. That attitude will get his team over the line here and they know they need to take advantage of that home crowd in the first leg.

Antoine Griezmann and Alvaro Morata have the ability to put Dortmund away with their attacking play and defensively this team is very sound. Back another classic Simeone performance for Atletico this Wednesday.

My best bet: Atletico Madrid moneyline (-122 at TonyBet)

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Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund same-game parlay

Atletico Madrid moneyline

Under 2.5 goals

Antoine Griezmann to score

+1,000 at bet365

As well as our best bet, which focuses on a classic Simeone performance, we’re also adding two more legs, the first of which is also very much about classic Simeone, for Under 2.5 goals. This is very much specific to this tie, in this competition, because domestically we’ve actually seen Atletico become less defensive in recent seasons. Even this season the vast majority of home games have seen Over 2.5 goals, however, this isn’t a regular league game, this is a Champions League quarterfinal and with the prize at stake, we’ll see Simeone and his team revert to type. They’ll look to frustrate Dortmund, keeping things tight, and then grab a goal, or two, when they can. This should be low-scoring.

To wrap up the Same-Game Parlay we’re going to predict the Atletico Madrid goalscorer and much like he so often does, we’re backing Antoine Griezmann to be the difference maker. He’s had another great season this year, with 11 goals and six assists in La Liga. It’s been the Champions League where he’s really come alive and has six goals in eight games in the competition. Dortmund have given up at least one goal in three of their last four in the league and if they aren’t at their very best then Griezmann has a great chance to take advantage.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund side and Over/Under analysis

If you don’t want to follow our best bet for the game, Atletico Madrid to win at -122, then you could also back the draw at +270, a result that wouldn’t be too bad for either team in this first leg. If you think the German side could grab the momentum in this tie with a win then Dortmund are available at +350 on the moneyline.

If Total Goals is the market for you then Over 2.5 goals is available at -103 and the Under comes in at -115. Only three of Atletico’s league games at home have been Under 2.5 goals this season but, as mentioned above, this game is likely to see Simeone set up his team very differently from how he has in the league.

He has historically valued caution and pragmatism over bravery and you should expect the same here. It’s also worth noting that four of Dortmund’s past five Bundesliga games on the road have seen Under 2.5 goals and they’d likely want to get away from Madrid on Wednesday with the game close and ready to be won at home, so a low scoring game suits them also.

Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund game info

Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries

Atletico Madrid: Thomas Lemar FWR (Out), Mario Hermoso CB (Out)
Borussia Dortmund: Ramy Bensebaini LB (Out)

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