The Genesis Invitational Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Right Place, Right Time for Rodgers?

The PGA Tour heads to Riviera Country Club for another signature event, with Tiger Woods the playing host at The Genesis Invitational. He’ll headline a 70-player field with the betting favorites in the golf odds being Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland.

We continue to see long-shot winners to start the season, so we’re looking down The Genesis Invitational odds with this week’s recommendations. I always advise a finishing-position bet in addition to the outright wager, and this week’s no different.

Additionally, because of the unique cut rule in play this week, I expect most of the field to play all four rounds. Anyone inside the Top 50 and ties, in addition to anyone within 10 shots of the lead will play the weekend.

Here are our free golf picks for The Genesis Invitational, and make sure to check out our Tiger Woods prop picks before placing your bets!

2024 Genesis Invitational sleeper picks

• Nicolai Hojgaard to win outright (+6,000 at FanDuel)
• Harris English to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)
• Patrick Rodgers to win outright (+12,500 at Caesars)
  
  
• Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 (+175 at FanDuel)
• Harris English Top 30 (+115 at DraftKings)
• Patrick Rodgers Top 30 (+130 at DraftKings)

Picks were made on February 13 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

2024 Genesis Invitational and Riviera Country Club key stats

Riviera Country Club is a demanding Par 71 that can be stretched to 7,322 yards and doesn’t offer many scoring opportunities after the opening 495-yard Par 5. There are two common characteristics among the past winners: excellent tee-to-green and approach play.

Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann both paced the field in true strokes gained approach en route to their respective victories the past two years, and Adam Scott (third), J.B. Holmes (sixth), and Bubba Watson (fifth) in his third win at Riviera also finished among the best in that category.

Tee-to-green numbers have been more important, though, and Holmes is the only winner to finish outside the Top 10 in true strokes gained tee-to-green the past nine years (11th). The leader posted a Top-5 finish in true strokes gained tee-to-green in the other eight editions.

Narrow, tree-lined fairways, long Par 4s, and difficult Par 3s are trademarks of the track, and be ready to hear all about the punitive Kikuyu grass. There aren’t any water hazards at Riviera, but the rough can make life difficult in a hurry. Only 22 players have gone double-digits under par in the past four years.

Distance is a huge plus, but accuracy off the tee is also critical, and course familiarity has proven beneficial. The winner has gained true strokes putting each of the past eight years, so successfully navigating the Poa annua greens is a must, especially from the 5-10 foot range. 

Of course, I’m also always reminded of the famous Johnny Miller line that Riviera “requires a player to use every club in his bag and every shot in his game” when preparing for the Genesis.

• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Strokes gained approach
• Par-3 performance
• Bogey avoidance
• Putting from 5-10 feet

2024 Genesis Invitational sleeper predictions

Nicolai Hojgaard to win outright (+6,000)

The only knock on Nicolai Hojgaard is this being his first trek around Riviera, but I’m viewing the course inexperience as more than baked into these odds.

He’s in elite form and ranks sixth in true strokes gained approach and ninth in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field across his past 21 measured rounds. He’s also gained true strokes on approach and off-the-tee in six consecutive events.

Add Hojgaard’s runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open to winning the DP World Tour Championship in November and he’s establishing himself as a world-class talent on the rise.

I also value that the 22-year-old Dane gained true strokes on the field on the greens at the Farmers and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am because they’re also Poa annua greens. In the case of Torrey Pines, bentgrass with Poa annua.

Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard to win outright (+6,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 (+175 at FanDuel)

Harris English to win outright (+11,000)

Harris English finished T12 at last year’s event despite failing to gain true strokes on the field on approach.

His short game did the heavy lifting. He finished second in true strokes gained putting and 19th in true strokes gained around-the-green. The four-time Tour winner is also coming off a respectable T17 showing at the WM Phoenix Open.

I’m most encouraged by his tee game that's gained true strokes in six of his past seven events. He’s also carded four Top-20 results during the stretch. However, he’s only gained true strokes on approach once. If he can find his iron game, he’ll have the scoring opportunities to contend.

There’s reason for optimism, too. English ranked 57th in strokes gained tee-to-green on Tour during the 2020-21 season when he won twice and before injuries took a toll. He’s now trending in the right direction again for his ninth trip to Riviera this week.

Pick: Harris English to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Harris English Top 30 (+115 at DraftKings)

Patrick Rodgers to win outright (+12,500)

This will be the ninth trip to the Genesis for Patrick Rodgers and he strung together a solid T22-T26-T15-T30-T12 stretch from 2017 through 2021. He’s missed the cut the past two goes, but I like his current form this time around.

Ignore the fiasco that was the AT&T Pebble Beach when he carded a 79th result. He preceded it with four consecutive Top-25 finishes, including a T9 at the Farmers.

The 31-year-old American doesn’t crush the statistical requirements, but he gained true strokes on approach and off the tee at the Farmers, and has ranked in the Top 50 in putting from 5-10 feet each of the past two seasons. Additionally, I value that he gained true strokes putting on the field in each of the highlighted five events when he finished T30 or better.

Few players have as much recent experience at Riviera, and Rodgers is still looking to live up to his pedigree as the No. 1 in the World Amateur Golf Rankings in 2014. Fast forward 10 years to a track where he’s had success, and it might just be the fitting stage for his first professional win.

Pick: Patrick Rodgers to win outright (+12,500 at Caesars, 0.25 units)
Pick: Patrick Rodgers Top 30 (+130 at DraftKings)

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