The RBC Heritage is the fifth signature event of the season with Harbour Town Golf Links playing host to its best field in recent memory.
This no-cut event is headlined by World No. 1 and Masters champion Scottie Sheffler. He’s followed by Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay in the RBC Heritage odds.
With Lucas Glover already one of our free golf picks from way down the board, here are the rest of our sleepers and long shots for the RBC Heritage.
2024 RBC Heritage sleeper picks
- Shane Lowry to win outright (+4,500 at BetMGM)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win outright (+6,600 at BetMGM)
- Taylor Moore top win outright (+7,500 at FanDuel)
- Shane Lowry Top 20 (+130 at DraftKings)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 30 (-110 at BetRivers)
- Taylor Moore Top 30 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks were made on April 16 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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2024 RBC Heritage and Harbour Town key stats
Harbour Town Golf Links is a 7,213-yard Par 71 that requires accuracy over length off the tee, excellent approach play to small greens, and a tight short game. There isn’t a single Par 4 over 475 yards and all four Par 3s are over 190 yards. Additionally, the three Par 5s are reachable in two for the majority of the field.
There are several forced layups off the tee, so Harbour Town definitely checks out as a second-shot course and each of the past four winners has finished Top 10 in true strokes gained approach and true strokes gained tee-to-green.
The biggest defenses of the track are water hazards on every hole and the coastal layout can become breezy, to say the least. The noted small greens are also protected by bunkers on each hole.
Typical of most Pete Dye layouts, course history has also been a critical factor in years past. Just remember this is a signature event this year and this field is stacked with 28 of the OWGR's Top 30.
- Strokes gained tee-to-green
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes gained around-the-green, scrambling
- Strokes gained: putting
2024 RBC Heritage sleeper predictions
Shane Lowry to win outright (+4,500)
The Irishman disappointed at Augusta National last week with a T43 finish despite ranking first in true strokes gained on approach. Lowry lost true strokes on the greens all four days to finish last in the metric for the tournament. The forcefield around the cup did him in.
His track record at Harbour Town is similar with three Top-10 finishes and three underwhelming results across his six trips to the RBC Heritage. Still, Lowry won’t putt as poorly as he did at the Masters and his accuracy off the tee and iron play give him a shot to put last week’s poor finish in the rearview quickly.
We’re also landing an excellent number. Compared to the +3,300 BetRivers price, the +4,500 BetMGM odds present a positive expected value of 33%. Additionally, Lowry is also carrying +130 odds through DraftKings to finish Top 20 to target.
Pick: Shane Lowry to win outright (+4,500 at BetMGM, 0.25 units)
Pick: Shane Lowry Top 20 (+130 at DraftKings)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win outright (+6,600)
The biggest weakness in Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s game is his play off the tee and it’s mitigated at Harbour Town because distance isn’t a necessity.
He ranks 13th in true strokes gained on approach and fourth in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 31 measured rounds, and he even gained true strokes off-the-tee in two of his three trips to this event.
Bezuidenhout enters with three consecutive Top-25 finishes — including a T9 at the Valspar — and he’s played the weekend in each of his three appearances in the RBC Heritage, including a T19 with a final-round 64 last year.
While Bezuidenhout fits the long-shot billing and is without a PGA Tour win, I still expect him to play well this week because of the course fit and his current form. This is also another example of BetMGM offering an edge in the numbers, with the +6,600 odds presenting a positive expected value of 21% compared to the +5,500 DraftKings price.
Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win outright (+6,600 at BetMGM, 0.25 units)
Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 30 (-110 at BetRivers)
Taylor Moore to win outright (+7,500)
A well-rounded player in good form, Taylor Moore is rolling along a T12-T2-T20 stretch and gained true strokes across the board at the Masters. He also posted a T11 finish in his lone trip to the RBC Heritage last year.
Moore shows off a tidy short game and ranks second in this field in true strokes gained around-the-green across his past three events, which has boosted him to 12th in true strokes gained tee-to-green. I also like that he's played the weekend in 15 consecutive events with seven Top 25s.
The +7,500 FanDuel odds are also notably longer than the +6,000 DraftKings price, with the positive expected value checking out at 22%. DraftKings does have Moore hanging at -110 odds to finish Top 30, which is a nice complement to this outright.
Pick: Taylor Moore top win outright (+7,500 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Taylor Moore Top 30 (-110 at DraftKings)
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