Mexico Open Picks, Live Odds, and Field: Tracking the Action at Vidanta Vallarta

The West Coast Swing has come to a close and with most top golfers taking a week off, the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta is left with one of the lightest fields of the year.

Tony Finau is the headliner in addition to being the defending champion after clearing Jon Rahm by three shots a year ago. His short +600 golf odds do well to reflect the strength of the field beneath him.

We break down the field, the favorites, and more in our full Mexico Open betting preview below. 

Best 2024 Mexico Open picks

• Cameron Champ to miss the cut (+162 at bet365)
• Erik van Rooyen Top 20 (+163 at 888sport)

Live odds to win the 2024 Mexico Open

Mexico Open picks and predictions

Cameron Champ to miss the cut (+162)

The curious case of Cameron Champ heads to Mexico after missing four straight cuts to kick off 2024.

He’s managed to play well here at Vidanta (T6 and T8 in two tries) despite being mostly out of form and off the map. His strong tee game makes him a great fit here and he’s taken advantage of good putting performances. However, I’m afraid lightning won't strike... thrice.

His adjusted scoring average across nine rounds this year is north of 72, ranking 142nd out of 175 guys on Tour this season. He’s also dead last in strokes gained approach and lost 32 true strokes in that area between the Farmers and American Express.

And while his long approach game is better (42nd in 200+ yard approach shots) and that will be key this week, the putting he needs to pay that off hasn’t been there. He’s 170th in putting average this season and has lost strokes in all four 2024 starts.

Needless to say, I won’t let two good finishes here in Mexico deter me from wagering against him. And considering this is as short as +132 at FanDuel, this +162 price is one I’m happy to jump all over.

Pick: Cameron Champ to miss the cut (+162 at bet365)

Erik van Rooyen Top 20 (+163)

A run of good form came to an end in Phoenix where van Rooyen missed the weekend, but he had finished T25 or better in three of his four prior starts and I like his chances of getting back on track this week.

The South African has gained strokes on approach in each of his last four starts (includes Phoenix) and ranks seventh in this field in that category over his last 34 measured rounds. More impressively, he’s third overall during that span.

He finished T33 and was just one shot back of the lead through 36 holes here a season ago despite being largely out of form. He’s in a much better spot this time around and should rise above this thin field.

Pick: Erik van Rooyen Top 20 (+163 at 888sport)

Mexico Open field and favorites

The list of household PGA Tour stars in this week's field starts and stops with Tony Finau. The 2023 Mexico Open winner was second on the board last year but will look to defend that title as a short +600 solo favorite. 

His form is solid if not impressive, finishing T25 or better in five of his last seven starts going back to East Lake. He finished T19 at Riviera last week and has a T2 finish here in Mexico to go along with his victory. 

Running second to Finau is Nicolai Hojgaard, who's cooled down just a little bit after winning the DP World Tour Championship in November. He finished runner-up at the Farmers but has gone T31 and T39 in two starts since then. 

Still, the potential and upside are undeniable and this week presents a great opportunity to notch his first Tour victory. 

The field thins out beyond those two guys with Emiliano Grillo the only other available option at 20/1 or better. 

Mexico Open recent winners and odds history

Here are the recent Mexico Open winners and their closing odds to win:

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

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