Week 18 NFL Trend Report: Don't Piss Off the Lions

We’re close to putting a bow on another fantastic regular season of NFL football and like every other season before it, there’s been standout teams and standout bets, for reasons both good and bad.

Hopefully, if you’ve been a regular consumer of this article, you’ve been able to take advantage of some of the standout NFL betting trends that I’ve been pinpointing every week. While some cooled off as trends tend to do, others have stood the test of time and remained consistent moneymakers throughout the season.

With that in mind, here’s my list of my favorite trends that I uncovered and cashed in on during the 2023 season. Keep in mind, some of these are in play in Week 18.

Ravens first-half against the spread: Baltimore enters the final week of the regular season with a 13-3 ATS record in opening halves thanks to allowing just seven first-half points per game. This bet was especially strong on the road where they went 8-0 ATS!

Chiefs second-half Under: This one came out of nowhere! KC enters Week 18 with a 14-2 first-half Under record. The Chiefs rank 28th with an average of just 15.3 points scored in the second halves of games this season.

Lions after a loss: This is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season, but going back to last season, it’s on a 7-0 ATS streak with some massive, sweat-free covers.

Saints after a win: This team can’t be trusted as they’re 1-5-1 ATS after a win this season and 3-10-1 ATS going back to last season. I’m pretty sure they won last week, didn’t they?

Rams in December: This one is a carryover from previous seasons where the Rams are 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 games played in December after going 4-1 ATS in December of this season with an average of 30.2 points scored in the five games.

Vikings first-quarter Under: This one eventually lost its steam after an incredible 12-0-1 start to the campaign. For the season, their first quarters are averaging a measly six points per game! 

There are a few more that could have made the cut for my favorite trends of the season, but I understand that you probably only have so much time to devote to reading about football stuff on the internet.

Anyway, check out more football stuff before placing your NFL picks below as I lay out my favorite trend for every game this week!

Best NFL Week 18 betting trends

Bills vs Dolphins

The trend: Miami has a league-best 12-4 first-half Over record

There’s been no shortage of scoring in the first half of Miami Dolphins games this season as their first halves have averaged 29.7 combined points. We saw these teams combine for a ridiculous 45 points in the first half back in Week 3, while also putting up 37 first-half points in last season’s wild-card game along with 34 in a mid-December clash. This game has a first-half total of 25.5. 

See all Bills vs Dolphins trends for Week 18.

Jets vs Patriots

The trend: Robert Saleh is 0-5 SU and ATS vs the Patriots

One last chance for me to pick on the New York Jets here as Robert Saleh has been stuffed in a locker when going head-to-head with Bill Belichick with his offense scoring 13 points or less in four of these five games… And, oh yeah, the New England Patriots have 15 straight wins over the Jets where they’ve gone 11-4 ATS. New England is favored by 2.5. 

See all Jets vs Patriots trends for Week 18.

Browns vs Bengals

The trend: The Browns have gone Over in every road game this season

The Cleveland Browns’ reputation as a great defensive team doesn’t travel with them on the road where they allow 29.4 points per game, which is the second most in the NFL. Even more ammo for the Over is that the Browns have topped 30 points in three of their last four and this game has a total of 39 points. 

See all Browns vs Bengals trends for Week 18.

Steelers vs Ravens

The trend: These teams have gone Under in six straight games against each other

We’ve got a low total of 37 points for this game with Tyler Huntley likely to get the start for the Baltimore Ravens, but it might not be low enough. Five of the six games in this trend failed to cross 30 points, including two games late last season where Huntley was the starter. In Huntley’s six starts last season, the average combined score was just 26.8 points. 

See all Steelers vs Ravens trends for Week 18.

Texans vs Colts

The trend: The Texans have gone Under the first-half total in all seven of their road games this season

This trend is primarily thanks to the Houston Texans allowing just 5.7 first-half points per game on the road which is second to only the Ravens. As a result, they’ve had an average combined first-half score of just 13.1 on the road. This game has a first-half total of 23.5.

See all Texans vs Colts trends for Week 18.

Jaguars vs Titans

The trend: The Titans have gone Under in 15 of their last 20 games

This trend includes going Under in 11 of 16 games this season, including their last three with their offense failing to top 17 points in each contest. The Jaguars are also on a three-game Under streak, and this game has a total of 40 points.

See all Jaguars vs Titans trends for Week 18.

Chiefs vs Chargers

The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 14 of 16 games

What a beautiful trend this has been. It looked like it was going to let up a bit down the stretch but it’s reemerged to hit in three of the last four weeks. Kansas City Chiefs games have seen an average of just 15.3 points scored in the second half this season. They combined for just seven second-half points with the Chargers in their Week 7 game.

See all Chiefs vs Chargers trends for Week 18.

Broncos vs Raiders

The trend: The Broncos are an NFL-best 13-3 ATS in the first quarter

This has been one of the season’s top under-the-radar big-money spots! This record is primarily due to the Denver Broncos defense as they've allowed just 2.8 first-quarter points per game, making them just one of just three teams to surrender less than three points in the opening quarter. The Broncos are a +0.5 underdog in the first quarter.

See all Broncos vs Raiders trends for Week 18.

Cowboys vs Commanders

The trend: The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite

Much has been made of the Dallas Cowboys’ poor play on the road this season, but they were the underdog in losses to the 49ers, Eagles, Bills, and Dolphins. While they haven’t risen to the occasion against strong competition away from home, they’ve still been efficient at smacking around bottom feeders and they haven’t played one on the road since destroying Carolina 33-10 back in Week 11. Dallas is the biggest favorite of the Week at -13.

See all Cowboys vs Commanders trends for Week 18.

Eagles vs Giants

The trend: The Giants are an NFL-best 18-10-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season

The New York Giants come into this game as a hot spread bet, going 5-1 ATS in their last six while the Philadelphia Eagles have dropped an embarrassing five straight ATS, including barely getting by the G-Men on Christmas day at home as a 14-point favorite. Philly is favored by five in this game. 

See all Eagles vs Giants trends for Week 18.

Vikings vs Lions

The trend: The Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss

Dan Campbell’s squad bounces back and they should be in a pissed-off mood after getting screwed over by the referees in Dallas. Five of the Detroit Lions' wins within this trend came by double-digits while four of the games saw them score 33 or more points. Campbell said the starters will play. They’re favored by five. 

See all Vikings vs Lions trends for Week 18.

Bears vs Packers

The trend: The Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games vs. the Bears

Aaron Rodgers is gone, but the Green Bay Packers still own the Chicago Bears. They smacked them by 18 points in Chicago in September and will look to do so again as a three-point favorite on Sunday. Justin Fields has a 72.8 QB rating in five career games against the Packers which is his lowest mark against any divisional opponent. 

See all Bears vs Packers trends for Week 18.

Falcons vs Saints

The trend: The Saints are 3-10-1 ATS after a win since the start of last season

The only thing Dennis Allen is consistent at is being inconsistent. This trend is 1-5-1 ATS this season and with the New Orleans Saints coming off an impressive 10-point win vs. Tampa Bay, it might be time to fade them again. New Orleans is favored by 3.5 but did lose 24-15 to the Atlanta Falcons in late November. The Saints are also just 3-8-1 ATS as a favorite this season. 

See all Falcons vs Saints trends for Week 18.

Buccaneers vs Panthers

The trend: The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS on the road this season

Pretty straightforward stuff here with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 5.5-point favorite in Carolina. Tampa only beat the Carolina Panthers by three when they played in early December but they were up by 11 late into the game and easily won the yards per play battle 5.6 to 4.1

See all Buccaneers vs Panthers trends for Week 18.

Rams vs 49ers

The trend: The 49ers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 regular season games against the Rams

Mike Shanahan has owned Sean McVay (except for in the 2021 NFC Championship game). This will likely be a stay-away game for many with the San Francisco 49ers having the top seed in the conference locked up and the Los Angeles Rams also having their ticket punched by qualifying as a wild card, but maybe the unknowns of who’s going to play and for how long for each team will cancel each other out… or not. I’ll steer clear, but do as you please.

See all Rams vs 49ers trends for Week 18.

Seahawks vs Cardinals

The trend: Every Cardinals home game has gone Over this season

The Arizona Cardinals' seven home games this season have seen an average combined score of 55 points, a full seven points higher than the total of 48 for this game (according to my calculator). Arizona has allowed five of their seven opponents at home to reach at least 31 points.

See all Seahawks vs Cardinals trends for Week 18.

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