Nuggets vs Heat Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Nuggets Prevail Yet Again

The Miami Heat will try to recover from one of their worst losses of the year tonight when they host the Denver Nuggets in a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals.

Miami (35-29) has lost three straight in the NBA odds, including a 110-108 home loss to the Washington Wizards on Sunday. Meanwhile, Denver (45-20) has won nine of its last 10 games to put itself back in contention for the top overall seed in the Western Conference.

Denver is the better team here, as they proved in last year’s playoffs, but Miami was able to hang with the Nuggets on the road just two weeks ago. We’ll break down who has the edge tonight in our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Heat on March 13.

Nuggets vs Heat odds

Nuggets vs Heat predictions

If there were any questions as to whether the Denver Nuggets were prepared to defend their NBA title, they’ve been answered over the past three weeks. 

The Nuggets swept the Boston Celtics in their season series, they’ve pulled even with the Oklahoma City Thunder atop the Western Conference standings, and they appear to be peaking just as we start to think about the playoffs.

By now, we all know the drill with Denver. Everything revolves around center Nikola Jokic, the best player on the planet who is putting together an all-time great NBA career. Jokic is averaging 26.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game, and nobody has found a way to stop him.

However, Jokic also has plenty of help. Jamal Murray (21.2 ppg) is the perfect compliment to the big man, as he’s willing and able to take big shots anytime opponents try to sag the defense or double Jokic. With four other players in double figures and solid bench minutes from Peyton Watson and Christian Braun, the Nuggets also boast an abundance of depth.

On the other side of the court, the Miami Heat have been struggling as of late, losing their last three. The loss to the Wizards was particularly concerning, as it came at home against arguably the worst team in the league. 

Unlike the Nuggets, the Heat are dealing with some significant injuries. Tyler Herro (20.8 ppg) will be missing his ninth game in a row due to a foot injury, while Kevin Love (9.0 ppg) is out for the seventh straight contest.

There are even questions about Jimmy Butler (21.7 ppg), but it appears he’ll be playing tonight after missing Tuesday’s practice with an illness. The Heat will also lean on their other primary scorer, Bam Adebayo (19.9 ppg), though he may have his hands full dealing with Jokic all night.

This has been a tough matchup for Miami even when fully healthy, as we saw during last year’s finals. The Heat have had few answers for Jokic, and even when they do find a way to slow down his scoring, he’s able to facilitate the offense and move the ball to Murray and others to keep the points flowing. The Denver offense is humming right now, having scored 115 points or more in eight of its last 10 games, while Erik Spoelstra has expressed concerns over Miami’s defensive effort.

With the way these two teams are trending, Miami’s health concerns, and how we’ve seen this matchup go time and time again, it’s hard to bet against the Nuggets. I’m taking Denver and laying the points on the road.

My best bet: Nuggets -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Nuggets vs Heat same-game parlay

Nuggets -3.5

Over 216

Nikola Jokic Over 46.5 points + rebounds + assists

+465 at DraftKings

The Nuggets should be able to overwhelm the Miami defense tonight, and that’s the basis for my same-game parlay. Along with taking Denver to cover, I’m also taking the Over at a modest 216 points. Denver has played above that number in each of its last five games, and hit the Over on four of those occasions.

Let’s finish off our SGP by taking Jokic to hit the Over on his combined points, rebounds, and assists total of 46.5. That’s a bit below his season average, and over his last five games, he’s averaging a combined 51.4. Look for Joker to exceed his total again tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

The Nuggets opened tonight’s game as a 4.5-point favorite. The consensus spread has dropped to Denver -3.5, with some books offering slight -108 discounts on Miami at that number.

The defending champs haven’t been great for bettors this year, as Denver has gone just 29-35-1 against the spread. Miami hasn’t been much better, posting a 31-32-1 ATS mark this season.

As much as the Heat have been able to hang tough with Denver, they’ve never found a way to consistently be in games with the Nuggets late, let alone beat them. With Herro out of the lineup, it gives them one less weapon to keep up with a hot Nuggets offense tonight. 

The total on tonight’s game opened at 214.5 points. That number has been bet up, with sites now split between 216 and 216.5 as the Over/Under. Either way, you’ll be able to find -110 odds on either side at your favorite book.

Both teams have played well below the total this year. The Under has a 40-24 advantage in Miami’s games and has put up a similar 39-25-1 record when the Nuggets play this season.

However, the Nuggets have been playing outstanding offense lately and have eclipsed tonight’s total in many of their recent games. Even Miami seems to be getting sucked into higher-scoring affairs, going above tonight’s total in four of its last five outings. 

Nuggets vs Heat betting trend to know

Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Heat.

Nuggets vs Heat game info

Nuggets vs Heat latest injuries

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