Mavericks vs Heat Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

There’s no rest for the wicked as the wild finish to the NBA season continues with the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Miami Heat on Wednesday night. 

Both these teams played just last night, but neither team can waste this opportunity to better their chances at a Top-6 seed, meaning this is going to be a hotly-contested game, fatigue or no.

I detail which NBA picks I find most favorable in my Mavericks vs. Heat predictions below.

Mavericks vs Heat predictions

My best bet
Mavericks -2.5 (-118 at 888sport)

My analysis

The Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks have been two of the NBA’s best teams over the past two weeks. Per Cleaning the Glass, they rank first (+13.5) and second (+10.1) in that span.

But while the Heat have the stronger raw statistical resume recently, everything in this matchup suggests it will be Dallas that outperforms expectations.

The Heat are a stout defensive team, but the number one task of defending the Mavericks is to slow down Luka Doncic, and they’re not well suited to do so.

The Heat are a nightmare for highly skilled, small guards. That’s because they play physically, they ruthlessly help off limited shooters, and Bam Adebayo is the best switch big defender in the NBA.

But Luka’s size and strength as a 6-foot-8 primary ball handler renders a lot of that work ineffective. He plays at a languid pace but works his way to the paint regardless, and when he gets that deep it forces help. 

He’s too tall and too gifted a passer to shut off his passing lanes, the Mavs have surrounded him with nothing but shooters and rim-running centers this season.

Even the best-connected defense will find they have committed to doubling him too early or too late. While the Heat often succeed in frustrating and wearing physically on smaller guards, Luka doesn’t wilt against that kind of physicality.

Now that he shoots 40% on non-corner threes, he’s also basically unguardable beyond the arc. That’s important because the Heat concede those shots to deny the rim, but Doncic is the rare player who can hit enough of them to win a game or force the opponent to change their defensive strategy.

Rest is another factor on Wednesday. While both teams played just last night, not all back-to-backs are created equal. The Mavs played a relatively comfortable game against the Charlotte Hornets and kept Luka’s minutes low.

The Heat meanwhile played a grueling double overtime game against the Atlanta Hawks, that required Bam and Tyler Herro to play just under 48 minutes and Jimmy Butler a hair below 44. Butler, in particular, might suffer from the short turnaround at 34.

The Mavs are also just rolling teams right now. They’re 9-1 against the spread in their last 10, and 10-3 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back. 

While this line got out of hand being bet up as high as -7, I think the value in taking Dallas is back now that these NBA odds are available at -2.5.

Mavericks vs Heat same-game parlay

Mavericks -3 

Under 214 

Jimmy Butler Under 22.5 points 

50% boost available

+430 +615 at DraftKings

Since the trade deadline, these teams are both elite at limiting opponent shots at the rim as well as decreasing the efficacy of the shots they do allow. Miami also leans hard into defense when it’s fatigued or undermanned, which has seen the Under cash in eight of its 12 games played on zero days of rest this season.

Butler has had a down scoring season and is averaging just 19.8 points over his last 10 games and has been below this mark in seven of them. 

The Mavs do a good job of not fouling on defense and If Butler can’t grift his way into 10 plus free throws, it’s unlikely he’ll manage 23 points or more.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Heat odds

Mavericks vs Heat live odds

Mavericks vs Heat opening odds

• Spread: Dallas -5 (-110) | Miami +5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Dallas -205 | Miami +170
• Over/Under: Over 218.5 (-110) | Under 218.5 (-110)

Mavericks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Mavericks opened as little as 1.5-point favorites but that rapidly grew to as high as -7 before being bet down to between -2.5 and -3.5 at most sportsbooks.
  
  
• The Mavs are 10-3 ATS when playing on zero days of rest.
  
  
• Wednesday’s total came in at 219.5, with early action on the Under depressing that to as little as 213.5 as of late Wednesday morning.
  
  
• The Under is 8-4 when the Heat play on the second night of a back-to-back.

Mavericks vs Heat trend

The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Heat.

Mavericks vs Heat game info

Mavericks vs Heat latest injuries

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