The Western Conference has been a tightly-knit race and Sunday night's national showcase of the Sacramento Kings (32-23) and the Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) is a perfect example of that. Just five games separate the two talented teams, but the former find themselves in near play-in danger as the No. 7 seed, while the latter are just two games removed from the conference's top seed.
Who will prevail on Sunday night's showcase matchup? Can Kawhi Leonard build on an MVP-level season with a primetime win? Or will De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis prove that the Kings can hang with the conference's best?
Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Kings vs. Clippers NBA odds matchup on Saturday, February 25.
Kings vs Clippers odds
Kings vs Clippers predictions
After seasons of untimely and lengthy injuries to its stars and after multiple too-early-for-comfort exits from the playoffs, the Los Angeles Clippers found themselves subject to (strangely for the first time in years) more level-headed projections and expectations. And of course it is finally this season that they are firing on all cylinders.
Their standing near the top of the Western Conference is by no accident, as Los Angeles has been incredibly poised on offense (fourth in offensive rating) while maintaining a respectable defense (13th in defensive rating). The culmination of their efforts have them fifth in net rating, trailing only the likes of the Celtics, Thunder, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers.
The Sacramento Kings, on the other hand, have seen a reversal of fortune following their finish as the league's best offensive rating team last year, ranking just 14th this year. They're below average on the other end as well, ranking 17th there.
Sunday's meeting sees Sacramento at a clear disadvantage, with the high-paced team traveling into Los Angeles to take on a team that has gone 20-6 at home and 14-5 against teams that rank at or better than the Kings in pace.
The best way to counteract a pace advantage is to win the turnover or rebounding battle, but the Kings do not possess a notable advantage in either, ranking 12th in turnover rate to the Clippers' 13th and 14th in rebounding rate to the Clippers' 12th.
My best bet: Clippers -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Kings vs Clippers same-game parlay
Clippers -4.5
James Harden 4+ made 3s
Ivica Zubac Under 12.5 points
The easiest matchup-oriented place to build out a same-game parlay advantage would be to attack the Kings' league-worst 39.8% three-point percentage allowed.
James Harden has shot an incredible 42% from downtown this season on sizable volume (6.7 3PA per game). His prop is set at 2.5 with massive juice on the Over (around -150), providing suboptimal value in a SGP. Instead, we can look at him to hit 4+ threes at +145, which is a mark he has hit in four of nine games this month.
Another matchup-oriented spot would be in the paint. The Kings have allowed the second-fewest points to opposing centers this year, largely thanks to teams opting to rain down 3s given the Kings' weakness there.
Ivica Zubac would be the player to target here, especially given where his line is on Sunday. His points total is set at 12.5, which is a mark he has surpassed just twice in his last nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis
Sacramento has kept their against-the-spread heads barely above water, playing to a 28-26-1 ATS record this year. They have fared much better on the road, going 17-12-1 — good for a 58.6% cover rate that is fifth-best in that split this year.
However, they have not fared well as of late, having covered in just two of their last seven games. The Kings have also not fared well as moderate underdogs, having gone 3-7 against the spread when closing as underdogs of 2-5 points.
The Clippers have also been slightly above .500 against the spread, with their 29-26-1 record barely edging out the Kings'. Despite their 20-6 win-loss record at home, they have gone just 14-12 against the spread in that split.
The Kings have gone 28-24-3 to the Over this year, which is good for the ninth-highest rate of Overs this year, but they have actually gone 17-11-2 to the Under on the road — the fourth-highest rate there. They have, however, gone 7-1-1 to the Over in their last nine now.
Los Angeles has gone 31-22-1 to the Under this year, a mark that has them as the fourth-best Unders team on the year. At home they have gone 15-10-1 to the Under, and they also have gone Under in six of their last seven games overall.
Kings vs Clippers betting trend to know
The Clippers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 37 games (+19.25 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Clippers.
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Kings vs Clippers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, February 25, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Kings vs Clippers latest injuries
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