Cavaliers vs Heat Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Going Over a Measly Total

A Cleveland Cavaliers team that's dealing with a rash of injuries will try to get back on track Sunday night as they visit the Miami Heat.

Cleveland sits in third place in the Eastern Conference but has won just two of its last seven games as it plays without several key contributors. Miami has injury concerns of its own, which is bad news as the Heat try to battle their way out of the play-in tournament.

With both teams missing key scoring options, this could be a low-scoring affair. We’ll dive into what that means for the NBA odds in our free NBA picks for Cavaliers vs. Heat on March 24.

Cavaliers vs Heat odds

Cavaliers vs Heat predictions

Looking at the lines for tonight’s game, the first thing that stands out is the incredibly low total. Scoring may be down a bit across the league in the second half of the season, but it’s worth taking a closer look at an Over/Under that sits at just 203 or 203.5, depending on where you want to bet it.

These teams are among the better defensive units in the league, at least when it comes to raw scoring numbers. The Clevland Cavaliers are allowing just 109.3 points per game, while the Miami Heat give up 109.2 ppg, both of which rank among the best five in the NBA.

Of course, both teams accomplish this partially due to their slow pace of play, but regardless of how they get there, these aren’t teams that allow opponents to light up the scoreboard — or do it themselves. 

With that said, tonight’s total is unusually low. Both teams play to much higher average totals, with the Heat at 218.6 ppg and Cleveland (222.4 ppg) even higher. None of their three meetings this season have come in at a total like the one being offered tonight; two hit the Over at higher numbers, and the third finished 111-99 for a modest total of 210 points, still more than enough to beat tonight's number.

Ultimately, tonight’s number is a reflection of injuries to key scorers on both sides. The Cavs are once again missing leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (27.4 ppg), who recently underwent surgery for a nasal fracture after missing nine games due to a bone bruise. Injuries to Evan Mobley (15.6 ppg) and Max Struss (12.2 ppg) have further limited the scoring options available to Cleveland tonight.

Miami isn’t in nearly as much distress, but their rotation has also been shortened by the injury bug. Most notably, Tyler Herro (20.8 ppg) is out for tonight’s game with a foot injury that's kept him out of the last five contests. Duncan Robinson (13.5 ppg), Josh Richardson (9.9 ppg), and Kevin Love (9.0 ppg) are all also out, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. (12.4 ppg) is questionable with knee and ankle problems. 

These injuries obviously hurt the scoring punch on both sides. However, most of these ailments — especially the most significant ones — are nothing new, and both teams have shown they can continue scoring at a reasonable clip even without their biggest weapons.

Taking tonight’s Over/Under, Cleveland has played to totals of Over 203 points in nine of its last 10 games. Miami may be the lower-scoring team, but even they have only come in Under 203 in three of their last 10.

This won’t be a barnburner, and the lack of star power might make this a tough game to watch, but when the total is this low, it’s time to attack as a bettor. 

My best bet: Over 203 (-110 at FanDuel)

Cavaliers vs Heat same-game parlay

Over 203

Heat moneyline

Jimmy Butler Over 22.5 points

+316 at FanDuel

While both teams may be suffering, the Heat are definitely in better shape going into this game and have the best player on the court in Jimmy Butler. That’s why I’m taking the Heat to win at home in combination with the Over to start my SGP.

In addition, I’m picking Butler to hit the Over on his scoring total of 22.5 points. Without Herro in the lineup, Butler will be expected to pick up more of the scoring load and should have his way with a decimated Cavs lineup.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cavaliers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s game opened with the Heat as 4.5-point favorites over the Cavaliers. That number has held steady for the most part, though some books have moved to Miami -4 as their main spread. As a result, you can find -105 odds on Miami -4.5 if you shop around a bit.

Both teams have been mediocre against the spread so far this season. Cleveland has put up a 34-36 ATS mark for bettors, while Miami is 33-36-1 ATS on the year.

While both teams are going to have to find ways to get around injuries, Miami has more of its key players in the lineup tonight. It will also get to play at home, while Cleveland is traveling from Minnesota after playing there Friday night. I prefer taking the Heat on the moneyline, as this should still be a close game, but I’d lean towards Miami on the spread as well.

The total tonight opened at a flat 203 points. By and large, that’s still what you’ll find at most books, though some have moved their Over/Under to 203.5 since then. There’s a reasonable variety of lines being offered, with a discount of -108 on the Over at 203.5, or a -105 price on the Under at 202.5 at a few books.

These are two of the lower-scoring teams in the NBA, and it shows in their records against the total. The Under has a 38-31-1 edge when Cleveland plays, while it has an overwhelming 45-25 advantage when the Heat take the court.

Those numbers may be impressive for the Under, but the total tonight is simply too low to expect these teams to go below it on average. Even Miami almost always plays Over 203 points, and the Cavs virtually always do — even with their recent injuries and depleted lineups. I’m taking the Over tonight.

Cavaliers vs Heat betting trend to know

The Cavaliers and the Heat have combined for totals of 210 or higher in each of their first three meetings this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Heat.

Cavaliers vs Heat game info

Cavaliers vs Heat latest injuries

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