76ers vs Suns Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Nurkic Helps Phoenix Overpower Sixers

The Philadelphia 76ers have been trying to hold their ground while Joel Embiid has been out with injury, just barely finding themselves above the play-in tournament cutoff by a half-game. On Wednesday night, they’re heavy NBA odds underdogs against the Phoenix Suns, who are in the opposite situation, finding themselves just a half-game behind the sixth seed of the Western Conference.  

Can Tyrese Maxey and the Sixers hold their sixth-seeded ground? Or will Kevin Durant and the Suns secure a big home win to help get themselves to the sixth seed they covet?

Continue reading my free NBA picks and predictions for the Sixers vs Suns matchup on Wednesday, March 20th.

76ers vs Suns odds

76ers vs Suns predictions

Life without Joel Embiid, a shoe-in MVP contender for multiple seasons now, is hard. Prior to his injury at the end of January the 76ers were 29-17 and were the league's third-best team according to net rating, ranking sixth and eighth in offensive and defensive rating, respectively.

Losing a scorer of his caliber given his massive usage has tanked the Sixers' offense to 22nd in offensive rating since, and the loss of his paint presence has brought Philadelphia down to 23rd in defensive rating. The end result? A 23rd rank in net rating since his injury and a 9-13 record.

And markets seemingly haven't reacted enough to Embiid's absence. The Sixers are just 8-14 against the spread since his injury and they've gone 4-8 in their last 12 alone, showing no signs of market correction even as of late.

Stylistically this matchup favors the Suns as well, as they rank second in the league in percentage of points coming from mid-range jumpers. Meanwhile, the Sixers have been the eighth-worst team in field goal percentage allowed on shots inside the perimeter.

My best bet: Suns -9 (-105 at bet365)

76ers vs Suns same-game parlay

Suns -9

Jusuf Nurkic Over 10.5 points

Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 rebounds

+450 at FanDuel

If we want to look deeper into the matchup to help build out a same-game parlay, the best place to look is inside the paint.

The 76ers allowed 24.0 points per game to opposing centers this year, the seventh-highest mark. That may mean a fruitful night for Jusuf Nurkic, who had the right volume in his first game against the Sixers this year (14 field goal attempts) but struggled against the towering Embiid.

On the other side of this matchup, Nurkic's proficiency on the glass has given opposing centers a hard time against the Suns. Their 13.3 rebounds allowed to the position per game is the second-lowest mark on the season, and Nurkic has been a rebounding machine as of late as well.

In the month of March alone Nurkic has averaged 14.8 rebounds per game, and he has put up 21 and 20 rebounds alone in two of his last three games, and had a monstrous 31 rebound game earlier this month.

Tonight is Nurkic's night.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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76ers vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

Philadelphia was once one of the league's best teams against the spread but (as noted previously) ever since Embiid's injury they've done a 180.

They still sit at 36-32 on the year (52.9%) which is good enough to keep them inside the Top 10 in terms of cover rate, but again they've gone 8-14 (36.3%) since Embiid went down, which would put them at the second-worst season-long mark.

The Suns have gone an abysmal 26-40-2 on the year, good for a 39.4% cover rate that ranks third-worst on the year. They have been even worse as large favorites (-7 or more), going 5-15 in that split.

The Sixers have gone 35-33 to the Over this year, good for a 51.% rate that way. However, again, it is important to distinguish this team's performances on totals with and without Joel Embiid.

Since Embiid's injury on January 30th, the 76ers have gone 15-7 to the Under. That includes their current streak of having played to the Under in six straight games.

Phoenix has gone 37-30-1 to the Under on the year, good for a 55.2% Under rate that is tied for the sixth-highest mark on the season.

As home favorites, however, they have gone a more balanced 15-13 to the Under and they have now gone to the Over in three of their last four.

Tonight's total of 223.5 is also notably low by the Suns’ standards, and they have gone 8-3 to the Over in totals at or below that mark.

76ers vs Suns betting trend to know

The 76ers have only hit the team total Over in 12 of their last 39 games (-18.35 units/-40% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Suns.

76ers vs Suns game info

76ers vs Suns latest injuries

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