Pennzoil 400: Las Vegas Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

Who needs the Super Bowl?

This weekend's NASCAR Cup Series odds unfold in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, only a few weeks after the biggest event in sports graced the city with its presence. 

Kyle Larson is heavily favored heading into this race, and he'll look to rebound after a disappointing 32nd at Atlanta last week. Can he outrun the field?

This is certainly setting up to be a race of haves and have-nots, with a clearly defined tier of contenders. See how the Pennzoil 400 odds shake out, and find the best angles with our NASCAR betting picks.

Odds to win 2024 Pennzoil 400

Driver
Kyle Larson	+330	+360
William Byron	+650	+625
Joey Logano	+700	+700
Christopher Bell	+1,000	+1,100
Ryan Blaney	+1,100	+900
Martin Truex Jr.	+1,200	+1,500
Kyle Busch	+1,200	+1,800
Bubba Wallace	+1,200	+1,300
Tyler Reddick	+1,300	+1,300
Ross Chastain	+1,400	+1,700
Chase Elliott	+1,500	+1,200
Denny Hamlin	+2,000	+1,800
Ty Gibbs	+2,500	+3,000
Alex Bowman	+2,500	+2,000
Brad Keselowski	+3,500	+3,000
Chris Buescher	+4,000	+3,500
Chase Briscoe	+4,500	+6,000
Austin Cindric	+4,500	+5,000
Noah Gragson	+8,000	+12,500
Michael McDowell	+8,000	+10,000

Odds as of March 3, 2024.

Pennzoil 400 field

Kyle Larson sees himself as a clear favorite this weekend, twice as likely to win the Pennzoil 400 as the next-closest contender. It makes sense — Larson's arguably been the most consistent driver in the Cup Series on standard tracks over the past few seasons, and has been nothing short of dominant at Vegas. Aside from wrecking out in 35th in the fall of '22, he's won two of five races here, finishing 2-2-10 in the other three. That's nothing to trifle with. 

A tier below Larson, we find a predictable glut of NASCAR household names: William Byron, defending Pennzoil 400 champ, who started this season hot by winning the Daytona 500. Denny Hamlin, a consummate veteran and 2021 Vegas winner. Defending Cup champion Ryan Blaney, coming off a runner-up finish last weekend. And up-and-comer Christopher Bell, who enjoyed finishes of fifth and second at Vegas during his breakout 2023 season.

With Larson a shorter-than-normal favorite, several other drivers priced better than 10:1, and a crowded third tier just north of +1,000, we'd expect to see a fairly steep dropoff down the board. However, there's a particularly drastic split in the Pennzoil 400 odds, with a huge plummet after Erik Jones just about halfway down the field. 

There's only a very thin tier of moderate longshots separating the clear favorites from the extreme Hail Marys, a somewhat abnormal distribution for NASCAR odds, so be sure to read on and see how our best bets want to attack the field. 

Pennzoil 400 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, February 27, 2024.

Pennzoil 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Kyle Larson (+400)
He’s on a heater at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Larson finished runner-up (second in both stages too) after leading 63 laps last spring for his third straight Top-2 finish in the spring race to go along with a win in the fall. Larson swept both stages and led a race-high 133 of 267 laps the last time out in the Fall. Combined, three Top-2 finishes in his last four races on the 1.5-mile track have him a legitimate favorite. At Kansas, a like track, he was second and fourth, respectively, last season.

William Byron (+850)
He dominated last spring to the tune of sweeping both stages, leading 176 of 271 lap,s and winning. He was seventh in the playoff race last year, netting him three Top-7 finishes in his last four Vegas starts. For the spring race, Byron has finished eighth, fifth, and first in the last three.  He was also third and 15th in the two Kansas races last season.

Christopher Bell (+900)
Bell has four of Top-10 finishes in his last five Vegas starts including a fifth-place run last spring and runner-up after leading 61 laps last Fall. It could be five straight if not for being an innocent bystander in the Kyle Larson vs. Bubba Wallace on-track spat in the 2022 playoff race. Bell finished fourth in Stage 1 and was running up front when he was collected in their feud. On a like track at Kansas, Bell also was fifth and third in 2022, and 36th and eighth last year. 

Pennzoil 400 sleepers

Kyle Busch (+1,200)
Busch has a pair of third-place finishes in his last three Las Vegas starts to go along with six Top-6 finishes in the last seven overall. At a like track in Kansas a season ago, Busch was also 35th and seventh, respectively, this year. 

Ross Chastain (+1,500)
Too good to ignore at Vegas. Chastain has three Top-5 finishes in his last four tries, including results of third and second in 2022. He led 151 laps on this track in 2022.

Alex Bowman (+2,200)
He’s finished in the Top-3 in the last two spring races, including a 2022 win. At Kansas, Bowman finished ninth, fourth 10th in his last three tries, too. 

Pennzoil 400 fades

Ryan Blaney (+900)
He has nine Top-7 finishes in his last 14 starts in Vegas. While he was sixth last Fall, his other three Next Gen finishes are 36th, 28th, and 13th. At Kansas last year, he finished 16th and 12th.

Chase Elliott (+1,400)
Prior to a runner-up in the 2021 playoff race, Elliott had just two career top fives on this track. He was 21st and 32nd a year ago without a lap led or stage point accumulated. Seven of his 13 Vegas finishes are 21st or worse. He was only 29th, 11th, seventh, and sixth at Kansas with the Next Gen. 

Joey Logano (+1,500)
He won the 2022 playoff race. That’s his only Top-5 finish in his last seven Vegas starts. In fact, with his Next Gen, he’s finished 14th, 36th, and 12th in the other races. 

Pennzoil 400 prop pick

Denny Hamlin Top-3 finish (+250)
While Hamlin has just one win in 24 Las Vegas starts, he does have four Top-5 finishes in his last seven, with results of 11th and 10th, respectively, a year ago. He’s led 374 of his 392 career Vegas laps in this span too. He’s also finished fourth, second, first, second in his four Kansas Speedway tries — the closest track comparison to Las Vegas — with the Next Gen.

Pick: Hamlin Top-3 finish (+250 at DraftKings)

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Las Vegas Motor Speedway track analysis

Vegas had become a track that produces a ton of lead changes lately.  It has character with some bumps in the turns and has turned into a track that can reward pit strategy in the event you can take two tires later, or even gamble with fuel only. Nothing changes this year on the track. This will, however, be a true test of the Ford and Toyota’s new body styles. We keep talking about that, but the previous two races were on superspeedways. 

It's no secret, when you come to the four annual stops between Las Vegas and Kansas, you used to have to go through Hendrick Motorsports and Toyotas in general if you want to win on these 1.5-mile tracks. 

Toyotas led 319 of 534 laps in the last two Kansas spring races and 177 of 535 in the fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 164 of the same 534 laps in the pair of Kansas spring races and 262 of the 535 in the fall. 

In Kansas 1 in 2022, Toyota (171 of 267 laps led) went 1-3-4-5-6. HMS went 2-9-16-29 after leading 64 of 267 laps. In Kansas 1 last year, Toyota (148 of 267 laps led) went 1-4-8-9, while HMS (100 of 267 laps led) went 2-3-7-25. 
For the last two Fall races, Toyota (94 of 267 laps led) went 1-2-3-5 and 1-2-8-14-32-36 (83 of 268 laps led). HMS went 4-6-8-11 (116 of 267 laps led) and 4-6-10-15 (146 of 268 laps led). 

They’re just as good at Vegas. In the last two spring races, Toyota led 123 of 541 laps while HMS led 292 themselves. In Vegas 1 of 2022, Toyota led 107 of 274 laps while HMS led 51. Last year, Toyota went 4-5-7-11 and led 16 of 271 laps but HMS led 241 of 271 in going 1-2-3 for the race, 1-2 in Stage 1, and 1-2-3 in Stage 2.  Combined, that's 415 of 541 laps led in the spring Vegas races. Last Fall, HMS led 134 of 267 laps while Toyota led 93. 

How much does Ford (40 laps led last Fall) close the gap with the new body, or does the gap widen? The same goes for Toyota with their changes. Does it increase their advantage, or do they fall back? What does that do to Chevy, who stayed put?

Pennzoil 400 trends

• There have only been two pole-sitters to ever win in Vegas history (32 races). That was Kyle Busch back in 2009 and Kyle Larson last fall.
  
  
• 22 of the last 27 Vegas races were won by a past champion.
  
  
• Penske, SHR, HMS, and JGR/Furniture Row have won the 17 of the last 18 Vegas races. 

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How to make Pennzoil 400 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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