Food City 500: Bristol Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

Christopher Bell shot up the NASCAR Cup Series odds following his Sunday triumph at the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway, home of the Cup Series Championship Race. But Kyle Larson still leads the way in that battle, and he's also been installed as the favorite for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN.

Larson won at Vegas Motor Speedway two weeks ago, making Chevrolet a perfect 3-for-3 to start the campaign before Bell broke things up in his No. 20 Toyota. Can the "bow ties" get back in Victory Lane, or will a Toyota or Ford find success in the first true short-track test of 2024?

We have all the NASCAR odds and information you need for the Food City 500, including free betting picks for the Sunday, March 17 heat.

Odds to win 2024 Food City 500

Driver
Ryan Blaney	+400	+475	+475	+450
Kyle Larson	+500	+525	+500	+500
Denny Hamlin	+500	+475	+475	+450
Christopher Bell	+600	+475	+625	+600
Kyle Busch	+1,000	+1,400	+1,800	+1,200
Chase Elliott	+1,000	+1,300	+1,200	+1,200
William Byron	+1,400	+1,700	+1,800	+1,600
Joey Logano	+1,600	+1,400	+1,800	+1,800
Ross Chastain	+1,800	+2,200	+2,000	+1,800
Martin Truex Jr.	+1,800	+2,500	+2,200	+1,800
Tyler Reddick	+2,200	+2,200	+2,200	+1,600
Ty Gibbs	+2,200	+2,500	+2,500	+2,200
Chase Briscoe	+2,200	+2,500	+1,600	+2,500
Brad Keselowski	+2,200	+2,200	+2,000	+2,000
Bubba Wallace	+3,000	+4,000	+3,500	+4,000
Chris Buescher	+3,500	+3,000	+3,500	+3,000
Noah Gragson	+4,500	+8,000	+8,000	+6,000
Josh Berry	+5,500	+5,000	+5,000	+5,000
Michael McDowell	+5,500	+5,000	+4,000	+4,000
Erik Jones	+8,000	+8,000	+8,000	+8,000

Odds as of March 17, 2024.

Food City 500 field

Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are familiar sights atop the pre-qualifying odds board for just about any NASCAR Cup Series race, but Christopher Bell hasn't been this close to the top since last year's Championship Race, where he wrecked early and had no chance to beat Ryan Blaney for the Bill France Cup.

Still, this shouldn't be that surprising considering how fast his car looked all race long at Phoenix. Bell may have been the first driver to master NASCAR's new short-track package, which will be in use once again at Bristol. He also won the Bristol spring race in 2023, albeit on the dirt surface that was scrapped this season.

After Larson, Hamlin, and Bell there's a significant gap to Blaney, William Byron, Chris Buescher, and Tyler Reddick in the second tier of contenders. There's an even bigger gap from the second tier to the third tier, with Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott — both +2,000 at DraftKings — ahead of 15th-place Bubba Wallace at +4,500.

Food City 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, March 12, 2024.

Food City 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Kyle Larson (+400)
No one has a better average finishing position since 2021 at Bristol than Larson (2.7). Next best is nearly double that at fifth. He’s led 229 laps in this span with three Top-5 finishes (first, fifth, second) in as many starts. Dating further back, Larson has eight Top-10 finishes in his last nine Bristol tries including four Top-2 finishes. 

Denny Hamlin (+500)
He beat your favorite driver the last time out here, leading 142 laps from a front row starting position. Hamlin has three consecutive Top-10 finishes on concrete here and six Top 10s in his last eight tries at Bristol, which includes a pair of wins. 

Christopher Bell (+500)
With the Next Gen, Bell has been en fuego. He won the Dirt Race a year ago and on concrete, he’s qualified eighth and first, finished fourth and third and has led 143 laps and 187 laps, respectively. He’s also won three of the four stages and finished second in the other. He just needs a concrete win. That could come on Sunday.

Food City 500 sleepers

Chris Buescher (+1,100)
Two of his career wins have come on short tracks, one of which here in Sept. 2022. A year ago, he finished fourth. Buescher has four Top-8 finishes in his last five tries. 

Brad Keselowski (+1,200)
His winless streak is at 102 races, but Bristol may be the spot to where it ends. Keselowski has five Top-10 finishes in his last seven tries there, including a win in May 2020. He led 109 laps in the 2022 fall race before tire troubles relegated him to a 13th place result. Still, Keselowski has led 514 laps in his last nine Bristol tries.

Chase Elliott (+2,000)
He’s due. Elliott won the All-Star Race there July 2020 and when factoring that, Elliott has five Top-7 finishes in his last seven starts including a runner-up in 2022. He led 129 laps in a 25th place finish in 2021 too. 

Michael McDowell (+6,000)
McDowell has four Top-11 finishes in his last five Bristol starts, including being sixth just last September. 

Food City 500 fades

Kyle Busch (+1,600)
At one point, Busch was the king of Bristol. He came into the 2021 season with seven Top-4 finishes in an eight-race span including three wins and a pair of runner-ups. Since? 21st, 34th and 20th, respectively, with no laps led.

Joey Logano (+1,800)
Not a good track for Logano anymore. He’s finished outside the Top-10 in six of the last seven tries there including finishes with the Next Gen of 27th and 34th with each race ending prematurely. He’s had two Top-10 finishes in his last 11 tries. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+2,000)
He finished last in 2022 and has had only two Top-10 finishes in his last 20 Bristol tries. He’s been 19th or worse in 15 of the last 18 there, at that.

Food City 500 prop pick

William Byron Top-3 finish

0-for-11 at Bristol, which is why I don’t trust picking him as an outright winner. Byron had a best finish of eighth as his lone Top-10 finish in his first eight tries on the concrete oval, but he’s since finished third, third, and ninth, respectively. With a pair of Top-3 results in the last three tires, I like another Top-3 finish on Sunday.

Pick: Byron Top-3 finish (+300 at DraftKings)

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Bristol Motor Speedway track analysis

This race is completely different from the last three spring races in the fact that spring race had run on dirt Yes, they brought in truck loads of dirt to cover the entire .533-mile concrete racing surface for one race weekend. That’s an afterthought now. 

The spring race is back on concrete to mirror the one run in the fall. The only difference now is this weekend is run during the day, while the fall race is under night time conditions. 

Bristol is a high-banked concrete short track. Most similar to Dover, although this track is half the size. Multiple grooves settle in as the race goes on; can risk pit strategy here. Lapped traffic plays a key role in determining the outcome of this track.

Food City 500 trends

• Starting spot is key. Five of the last six on the concrete oval came from a Top-5 starting spot. Chris Buescher started 20th in 2022 but Denny Hamlin came from second last year.
  
  
• Chevy has three wins in the last 18 races at Bristol. 

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How to make Food City 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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