Shohei Ohtani is fresh off winning his second American League MVP award, claiming victory unanimously after another incredible season for the Los Angeles Angels.
After much fanfare, Ohtani signed the biggest guaranteed contract in professional sports history ($700 million over 10 years) to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. World Series odds immediately launched the Dodgers to the betting favorite position. And while MLB odds are somewhat scarce this time of year, one market that has become available is Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP.
Let's dive into the MLB futures and see what Ohtani's chances are to become a three-time Most Valuable Player and one of the few to win in both leagues.
Shohei Ohtani odds to win 2024 NL MVP
Odds as of December 11, 2023.
Can Ohtani win MVP without pitching?
Shohei Ohtani is the most unique player in Major League Baseball history. No player has hit and pitched at this high of a level for a sustained period. That he can essentially provide the value of two players at once immediately gives him a leg up over his competition. No one can do what he does when he's at 100%.
That's the rub, though. He will not be at 100% for the 2024 season. Ohtani underwent surgery on the elbow of his throwing arm — it was not another Tommy John surgery — and while he is expected to be in the Dodgers' Opening Day lineup, he is unlikely to pitch until the 2025 season.
Both times Ohtani won the AL MVP were seasons where he did both. In 2021, Ohtani hit .257 with an OPS of .964, 46 home runs, 100 RBI, and 26 stolen bases while going 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 156 strikeouts in 130 1/3 innings. In 2023, he won after hitting .304 with a 1.066 OPS, 44 home runs, 95 RBI, and 20 stolen bases while going 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 132 innings.
Ohtani did not pitch in 2019 and was limited to just 1 2/3 innings in 2020's mutant season. He struggled as a hitter in COVID-shortened 2020, which can be thrown out as an exemplar since he's stormed back in the three seasons since. And his power hadn't quite developed in 2019, hitting just 18 home runs in 425 plate appearances while slashing .286/.343/.505. He didn't receive MVP votes in these seasons.
So, if the Dodgers can reasonably expect offensive production close to what he accomplished in any of the last three seasons — he finished second to Aaron Judge in 2022 — will that give him an edge in the NL MVP race? Not exactly. Ohtani will exclusively be used as a designated hitter and while he might be the best in the game at that particular skillset, the MVP award has not traditionally been kind to DHs. Ohtani was technically the first player to win the award as a DH and that was largely buoyed by his pitching numbers that added an extra element to his game.
Even David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez, the most well-regarded DHs of the last couple of decades, never won. Ortiz had five consecutive Top-5 finishes (including as runner-up to Alex Rodriguez in 2005), and Martinez topped out with a third-place finish in 1995 behind Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle (whether Vaughn should have won is an argument for another day).
Both Ortiz and Martinez are in Cooperstown. Their greatness is known and acknowledged. At +880, the odds for Ohtani simply aren't long enough to take such a leap against precedent when he's missing half his repertoire.
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Ohtani faces plenty of competition, including on his own team
While Ohtani at +880 isn't long enough, there's just no value in taking the field even though -1,800 is probably generous given the likelihood of the outcome.
Ronald Acuna Jr., the reigning NL MVP, hit .337 with 41 homers and 73 stolen bases. And while his outfield defense was not great, which player is more impressive if you put Acuna's offensive numbers up against Ohtani's? Removing Ohtani's pitching from the equation tightens things up drastically and with the DH also limited to 135 games in 2023 due to an oblique injury on top of his elbow issues, Acuna would have certainly prevailed.
Ohtani's own lineup features two former MVP winners in Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Both will play the field in 2024 and likely play their positions well.
So while, in a vacuum, I would confidently predict the field would win, I am not putting a wager on it at this number even if I think it's more than fair. You're just not getting enough value for your dollar unless you're betting a massive amount, which is not advisable.
Covers MLB betting tools
Odds to lead regular season in home runs
| Player |  |
 |
 |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
+350 | +380 | +400 | +350 | +375 |
 Matt Olson |
+600 | +750 | +600 | +700 | +700 |
 Pete Alonso |
+700 | +850 | +1,000 | +900 | +800 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
+750 | +850 | +1,000 | +900 | +800 |
| Juan Soto |
+900 | +1,800 | +1,600 | +1,000 | +1,800 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+1,000 | +1,100 | +900 | +900 | +1,100 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+1,200 | +1,600 | +1,100 | +1,600 | +1,400 |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
+1,900 | +2,300 | +1,600 | +2,000 | +2,200 |
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
+2,200 | +2,300 | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,200 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. |
+2,200 | +1,700 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
 Rafael Devers |
+2,200 | +3,300 | +2,500 | +3,500 | +2,500 |
 Mike Trout |
+2,200 | +3,200 | +2,800 | +2,700 | +2,500 |
| Austin Riley |
+2,500 | +3,600 | +5,000 | +2,500 | +3,000 |
| Jorge Soler | +2,800 | +3,400 | +5,000 | +4,000 | +3,000 |
| Bryce Harper |
+3,000 | +4,800 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
 Corey Seager |
+4,500 | +4,900 | +5,000 | +7,500 | +5,000 |
| Adolis Garcia |
+4,500 | +8,000 | +5,000 | +4,500 | +8,000 |
Odds as of December 11, 2023
Shohei Ohtani odds to lead MLB in home runs
With a full season as a dedicated hitter looming, Ohtani is actually fetching better odds to lead the majors in homers than he is to win NL MVP. Obviously, neither will be easy, but I would feel a bit better taking him at +1,100 to be the 2024 home run king than to be the first DH-only player to win an MVP award.
Last season, Ohtani finished fourth in the Majors with 44 home runs behind Matt Olson (54), Kyle Schwarber (47), and Pete Alonso (46). Ohtani also played fewer games (135) than anyone else in the Top 10. The Dodgers will offer him plenty of lineup protection even beyond Betts and Freeman with Max Muncy, Will Smith, and a returning Gavin Lux among the bats poised to surround him in the lineup. You can't opt to walk Ohtani or to pitch around him when the next guy up is going to make you pay.
Ohtani hitting 50 homers isn't out of the question. DraftKings has an alternative market to wager on Ohtani to hit 45+ home runs at +130. And while he's only cleared that number once in his career, he is in a great position to eclipse it again since he won't have to worry about pitching. Also, the Dodgers will make multiple trips to Coors Field, which only helps matters.
