With Opening Day around the corner, we're looking at a variety of MLB futures markets to find the best value available.
In addition to targeting award winners and home run leaders, other stat categories are also available in MLB odds, including which player will lead the majors in doubles. This honor has gone to Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman in the last two seasons and four of the last six as he maintains excellent contact rates while hitting in the heart of one of baseball's best lineups.
Still, Freeman will face stiff competition, so you can't close the book on the season — or your MLB picks — before the year starts.
Odds to lead MLB in doubles in 2024
| Player | Odds to lead MLB in doubles |
|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | +450 |
| Jose Ramirez | +750 |
| Rafael Devers | +800 |
| Mookie Betts | +1,300 |
| Michael Harris II | +1,400 |
| Jarren Duran | +1,500 |
| Jung Hoo Lee | +1,500 |
| Kyle Tucker | +1,800 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +1,900 |
| Corey Seager | +2,000 |
| Trea Turner | +2,000 |
| Ketel Marte | +2,000 |
| Bryce Harper | +2,200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +2,500 |
| Bo Bichette | +2,500 |
| Marcus Semien | +2,500 |
| Ozzie Albies | +3,000 |
| Nick Castellanos | +3,000 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | +3,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 29, 2024
Freddie Freeman (+450)
Freddie Freeman is not your prototypical first baseman. The veteran is capable of going deep, as evidenced by the 29 home runs he hit in 2023 and the 321 throughout his career, but there are more layers to his offensive game than that.
Freeman hits for a high average, rarely strikes out, and doesn't draw walks at a crazy rate like some of his peers. He also stays healthy, playing in at least 147 games in 10 of 12 full seasons (not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 where he played in all 60 games), and has missed a total of 11 games since the beginning of 2018.
Not only did Freeman lead MLB in doubles in 2023, but he did it in a way that vastly eclipsed the other times he's done it. Freeman hit 59 doubles in 161 games while the next closest hitter (Corey Seager) hit 42. Only six players in MLB history have hit 60 doubles in a season and none since 1936 when Joe Medwick and Charlie Gehringer each cleared that number. Only one other player since the 30s has matched Freeman's 59, and that was Todd Helton in 2000.
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Jose Ramirez (+750)
Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez led the majors in doubles with 56 back in 2017 and the AL with 44 in 2022. Like Freeman, Ramirez doesn't have a lot of holes in his offensive game. A switch-hitter, Ramirez hits better from the right side but is a force either way.
Since becoming a full-time player in 2016, Ramirez has played at least 152 games in six of seven seasons (not including 2020). Simply put, he stays on the field and his results speak for themselves. Still, he hasn't approached his 2017 numbers in terms of two-baggers, but that was an extreme example. He's one of only three active players to notch 55+ doubles in a single season, with the others being Freeman and Nick Castellanos.
Rafael Devers (+800)
Boston Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers was very nearly the fourth active player to hit 55 or more doubles in a season when he finished with 54 in 2019 — the same year Castellanos hit 58.
It's curious to see Devers fetching such short odds, though, as he hasn't hit more than 42 in any of the last three seasons and failed to reach 40 in two of them. He is certainly capable, but he should be trading at much longer odds than this if we're going to find any real value.
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My best bet: Corey Seager (+2,000)
If Freeman isn't able to defend his crown, I like Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager as a value play at 20/1.
The reason for his omission among the top picks is his injury risk. Where Freeman, Ramirez, and Devers all routinely play full or close to full seasons, Seager has played in 140+ games three times in seven seasons (not including 2020), and has failed to reach 100 games played twice. Last season, he only managed to suit up for 119 games.
But where he matches up with his peers on this list is his ability to do damage while being aggressive in the zone. Seager doesn't strike out (16.4% strikeout rate in 2023) and will take his hacks, evidenced by him leading the majors in swing rate on pitches in the zone last season, making contact 89.5% of the time. That's slightly below Ramirez and slightly ahead of Freeman.
Seager led the majors in hard-hit percentage in 2023 and his average exit velocity of 93.3 mph ranked sixth. And despite playing in just 119 games, he finished with an AL-leading 42 doubles! Freeman had an extreme outlier campaign in 2023 and can't be expected to sniff 60 doubles for a second straight season. Seager had surgery to repair a sports hernia this offseason and isn't a lock to be ready for Opening Day, but that's also a likely reason for him to be available at 20/1 odds.
My best bet: Corey Seager to lead MLB in doubles (+2,000 at DraftKings)
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