The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays wrap up a three-game series at Tropicana Field on Wednesday. Tampa Bay lost the first two contests in this series and scored just two runs, and my MLB picks for today expect another poor performance at the plate.
Here are my Red Sox vs. Rays predictions for Wednesday, May 22.
Red Sox vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Brayan Bello Under 2.5 earned runs (-130 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Boston Red Sox are starting 25-year-old righthander Brayan Bello as they look for the series sweep. Bello is coming off his worst performance of the year but still has a solid 3.96 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP across seven starts.
Bello is near the middle of the pack when it comes to allowing hard contact but he forces plenty of ground balls. The Tampa Bay Rays have the seventh-highest ground ball rate in the majors and they're also just 28th in hard-hit rate and 29th in barrel rate.
The Rays have plated a total of just four runs over the last three games and they'll have a tough time getting their offense going at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. With Bello allowing fewer than 2.5 earned runs in five of seven starts this year, bet on a bounce-back performance from him tonight.
Red Sox vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Brayan Bello Under 2.5 earned runs
Josh Lowe Over 0.5 hits
Ryan Pepiot Under 1.5 walks
While I like Bello to have a solid game, I do think Josh Lowe will be able to get a hit off him, which makes for a nice multiplier in this SGP. Lowe began the season on the IL but returned to the lineup earlier this month and has picked up a hit in 10 of 13 games. Lowe has gone 7-for-14 against Bello in his career and the left-handed slugger will have a platoon advantage in this matchup.
The Rays are starting Ryan Pepiot, who returns to the rotation after a short stint on the IL after taking a line drive of his leg. The 26-year-old Pepiot has a bright future and while he's been inconsistent this season, his xERA (2.94) shows promise.
Pepiot could be on a pitch count since he's coming off an injury and the O/U on his outs is just 14.5. That should help him go Under his walks against a Red Sox lineup that is 21st in the majors in walk rate (8.1%) with that number shrinking to 7.1% this month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Rays odds
Red Sox vs Rays live odds
Red Sox vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-200) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Boston +100 | Tampa Bay -120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+105)
Red Sox vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rays moneyline price has shifted from -120 to -125 and while the total briefly moved to 8, buyback has pushed it back to 7.5.
- The Rays are on a three-game losing streak but had gone 11-4 in their previous 15 contests.
- Bello was shaky against the Rays last year, allowing at least three earned runs in all three starts while pitching to a 5.50 ERA with a .286 OBA.
- The Red Sox are eighth in the majors in OPS (.722) with that number bumping up to .808 over the last week.
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Red Sox vs Rays trend
The Rays have hit the First Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rays
Red Sox vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, BSSUN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (4-2, 3.96 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Ryan Pepiot (3-2, 3.68 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Rays latest injuries
Red Sox vs Rays weather
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