It’s an absolutely jam-packed day of baseball action on the diamond with a whopping 16 games on the MLB schedule thanks to a doubleheader today. That means there is a cornucopia of betting options in the player prop market.
Today, we look at a couple of strikeout props at plus money for a pair of American League pitchers who not only have great stuff but terrific matchups as well. And Mike Trout has cooled off a bit since his home run streak but that may just be giving us a little extra value ahead of tonight’s clash with the Rangers.
Check out my bet MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, September 20.
MLB props for September 20
- Javier Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
- Trout Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
- Castillo Over 7.5 strikeouts (+110)
Picks made on 9/20/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Javier self a night, Cristian
If you like strikeouts, then today’s Houston Astros-Tampa Bay Rays matchup is the game for you as Cristian Javier toes the rubber against Shane McClanahan.
McClanahan returned to the Rays rotation after a two-week stint on the injured list and picked up right where he left off — shutting out the Toronto Blue Jays on three hits over five innings while striking out five. But it’s McClanahan’s counterpart I'm highlighting today.
Javier has been a big part of an absolutely stacked Astros rotation. The right-hander is not only pitching to a 2.55 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a ridiculously low .173 expected batting average, but he is also striking out an awesome 11.8 batters per nine innings.
Javier did have a bit of a midseason slump when it came to punching out batters, but it looks like he’s found his groove again. The right-handed hurler has struck out 23 batters in his last 16 1-3 innings of work, racking up at least seven Ks in each of his last three starts.
Tonight, he’ll get a great chance to keep those numbers going when he stares across at a Rays team that tends to whiff against right-handed pitchers. Tampa Bay has the seventh-highest strikeout rate vs. righties this season.
At plus money like this, the Over on Javier’s Ks is too tempting to pass up in this matchup.
Cristian Javier Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
Catch of the day
Mike Trout has cooled off considerably since after nearly tying the MLB record for most consecutive games with a home run when he swatted a dinger in seven-straight games earlier this month.
But this mini-cold streak might be enough to give us some value tonight against the Texas Rangers, where Trout gets a great matchup to get back on track.
In the five games since Trout’s home-run streak ended, he is hitting just .211 (but with another homer, of course). Tonight, he digs in against Rangers pitching prospect Cole Ragans.
The southpaw is making just his seventh career start and it seems the big leagues have been a bit of an adjustment. Ragans is pitching to a 5.37 expected ERA while surrendering a .273 expected batting average to opponents. He is also coming off his worst start as a pro, as the A’s, of all teams (more on them in a bit), roughed him up for eight runs on seven hits over four innings.
And if there is anything that can get Trout out of a funk, no matter the size, it’s a matchup with an inexperienced southpaw. Trout is mashing lefties this season for a .320 batting average and a 1.084 OPS.
Both Trout and baseball bettors should take advantage of this matchup by backing the former MVP to go Over his total bases at plus money.
Mike Trout Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
Castill-OH yeah!
I’ve got one more strikeout prop for you today. This time, we turn our attention to Luis Castillo as he takes the ball for the Seattle Mariners, who open a three-game set in Oakland against the A’s.
Castillo has been outstanding since coming over from the Cincinnati Reds just before the trade deadline and has been a big part of the reason why Seattle is confident it can finally snap its lengthy postseason drought.
Castillo is pitching to a 2.37 ERA while limiting opponents to a .221 batting average over eight starts with the Mariners. The right-hander has also racked up 60 strikeouts over 49 1-3 innings of work over that stretch.
For the season, his 27.4% strikeout rate is in the 77th percentile of the MLB and he should keep collecting the Ks against the A’s.
At 53-94, this obviously isn’t Oakland’s year. The A’s rank dead last in in average and OPS, and are next-to-last in scoring. And now, the strikeouts are starting to pile up.
For the season, the A’s have the seventh-highest K-rate when digging in against right-handed hurlers but it has been even worse as the season winds down. Oakland has the second worst K-rate since the start of September, striking out nearly 30% of the time, and has the third-most total strikeouts over that stretch.
Funnily enough, Castillo’s worst start as a Mariner came against the A’s back on Aug. 21 where he allowed four runs on eight hits while striking out just five in five innings. Not only is this an outlier result against an objectively bad team, but it’s also a revenge spot.
With Castillo striking out eight or more batters in eight of his 11 Seattle starts, getting him to make it nine-of-12 at plus money looks like a smart play.
Luis Castillo Prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings)
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