Royals vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today's MLB Game

The Toronto Blue Jays' offensive outburst was predictably short-lived as they dropped Game 2 of their series against the Kansas City Royals by a score of 4-1.

Despite the loss, the MLB odds say the Blue Jays have a great chance to take the series when they hand the ball to Chris Bassitt for the finale.

Can Toronto plate enough runs to support its starter? I break it all down in my MLB picks and Royals vs. Blue Jays predictions, for Wednesday, May 1.

Royals vs Blue Jays prediction

My best bet
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-141 at PROLINE+)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

It seems that the Toronto Blue Jays’ 6-run outburst in the series opener was more a product of them facing some struggling Kansas City Royals relievers as opposed to improvements being made.

So, the Blue Jays' best chance of taking this series relies on the arm of Chris Bassitt. Unfortunately, Bassitt’s results have been mixed to this point. 

Bassitt’s first two starts were rough. He gave up eight runs on 15 hits in 9 1-3 innings. But he followed that up by allowing just four runs on 15 hits in 19 1-3 innings over his next three starts. Most recently, he got rocked by the Los Angeles Dodgers, surrendering seven runs on nine hits in just 2 2-3 innings. 

One thing that has been consistent through all this has been Bassitt’s strikeouts. The veteran right-hander is striking out just under a batter an inning.

Now, the Royals don’t strike out a ton, but Bassitt’s experience should be a big edge here. He has one of the biggest pitch arsenals in baseball, employing eight different pitches, and is generally very good at setting each of them up with his pitch sequencing. 

I think that should play well against a solid, yet young, Royals lineup that ranks 23rd in OPS and 27th in wRC+ over the last 10 games.

Bassitt’s strikeout prop is sitting at 4.5, in a matchup where something has gone very wrong if he can’t go at least five innings. And if Bassitt goes five innings, he should get five Ks.

And that’s what our Covers Prop Projections have playing out. We have Bassitt going 18.2 innings and recording 5.9 strikeouts. That’s more than a strikeout higher than his total which makes the Over 4.5 Ks at +EV play.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+150 at PROLINE+)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t get that RBI for us last night, but he extended his hitting streak to four games. His lone hit was a hard-hit line drive to center field. He also made solid contact for outs a few other times. Vladdy is now 6 for his last 16 (.375) with a .912 OPS during this hitting streak, and he’ll have a great chance to stay locked in this afternoon against Royals starter Seth Lugo.

The former Met and Padre has gotten his Royals career off to a great start allowing just seven earned runs over his first six starts. However, the right-hander has been a little lucky to this point. He owns a 4.53 expected ERA while giving up a .269 expected batting average to opponents. 

Lugo is also getting hit hard while not striking out many batters in return. He ranks in the Bottom 37% or worse in average exit velocity and barrel rate, while his 15.2% k-rate ranks in the 11th percentile.

It’s a good matchup for Vladdy to drive in a run. With our Covers Prop Projections having him at 0.7 RBIs, the +150 price tag makes this a solid bet. 

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Royals vs Blue Jays odds

Royals vs Blue Jays live odds

Royals vs Blue Jays opening odds

• Run line: Kansas City +1.5 -200 | Toronto -1.5 +165
• Moneyline: Kansas City +110 | Toronto -130
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Royals vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Blue Jays opened this matchup as -130 home favorites, and that's where they remain as of late Wednesday morning.
  
  
• Even though Bassitt has struggled at times, sportbooks believe Toronto has an edge in starting pitching going against Lugo, who looks due for a regression.
  
  
• The total hit the board at 8.5, and early bettors jumped on the Under, moving the number down to an even 8.
  
  
• This isn't surprising, considering these teams have played six games in the last 10 days, with the Under going 5-1, seeing an average of 6.2 total runs scored per game.

Royals vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have only hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 113 games for -21.55 Units and a -17% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Blue Jays

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