Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Smith Barrels D-Backs' Nelson

Prop bet #1: Smith Over 1.5 total bases (-111)

The Los Angeles Dodgers get a great matchup, even against Ryne Nelson of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Nelson has had issues all season, and his ERA at just over 5.00 indicates that just as much as anything. But also, his hard-hit and barrel rates ranking in the bottom 10% of baseball paints an even grimmer story.

Will Smith should be able to exploit this.

Smith has the third-highest hard-hit rate in the potent Dodgers lineup, and it's also a rate that sits in the Top 20% of the league. Again, that's an area of concern for Nelson.

What makes this matchup so good for Smith is not just him hitting the ball hard from a general perspective, but also that he's been incredible against three pitches Nelson tends to feature. He ranks first in hard-hit rate against the four-seam fastball amongst Dodgers, first against the cutter, and first against the slider. 

You could not ask for a better matchup here, which is why I'm taking this for two units. I'd play it down to -130.

Will Smith prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-111 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Hill Under 0.5 hits (-119)

June was an interesting month for San Diego Padres pitcher Dylan Cease. It featured games in which he gave up seven runs and games in which he went seven scoreless. However, I like what I saw from him in his last outing against the Washington Nationals, where that seven-inning shutout came. I like him to go deep again this evening, which bodes poorly for Derek Hill.

Cease remains an elite strikeout pitcher, with a rate around 37%, which is good enough for one of the best in baseball. Why is that an issue for Hill? Well, the answer is two-fold. He strikes out a ton, the highest rate among Rangers on the season, but he also boasts a 35% chase rate, which is the second-highest on the team. I suspect that it will be a real issue against Cease. 

Forget about getting a hit, Hill will struggle to put the ball in play if Cease continues to trend in the direction we believe he is. I played two plays here: the hit prop at -119 and the over 1.5 strikeouts at -120 at Caesars. However, we see the most value in Hill not getting a hit and would play it to -127.

Derek Hill prop: Under 0.5 hits (-119 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Judge Over 0.5 home runs (+200)

According to my records, this is the first time Aaron Judge has been +200 or better to go deep in about two weeks. We're taking advantage of that. There's plenty to like about this matchup.

For starters, whenever you have a pitcher with hard-hit issues going against the New York Yankees, my attention is immediately drawn to Judge going deep. That's the case for Cincinnati Reds pitcher Graham Ashcraft. He's in the bottom 5% of baseball in hard-hit rate and only slightly better in barrel rate. I don't need to tell you that's an issue when facing Judge. Quite literally, no-hitter in baseball has a better barrel rate this season, and the hard-hit rate isn't far behind.

Even better? Judge has been tremendous against the cutter, and Ashcraft throws many of them. If he gets a few tonight, we love our chances. I'd play this down to the typical market range for Judge over the last few weeks, which is around +185.

Aaron Judge prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+200 at bet365)