Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Wheeler Deals vs. Braves

Prop bet #1: Freddies a nightmare

After Thursday’s postponement, the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets start off their seasons in the first game of Friday’s MLB slate. Milwaukee hands the ball to right-hander Freddy Peralta to kick off the campaign, and while he has his volatility in terms of allowing runs, there is no denying that he is one of the premier strikeout talents in the league.

Last season, he ranked in the 92nd percentile in both Whiff% and K%. To conclude 2023, Peralta recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his final 12 starts.

This success is likely to continue against the Mets, a team Peralta completely shut down last year in his lone start against them with six shutout innings. He only allowed two hits while racking up seven strikeouts in that outing.

Through 59 career plate appearances against Peralta, this current New York lineup possesses a fade-worthy 32.2 K% and 35.4 Whiff%. Finally, we are catching a good price on this prop at +112 via FanDuel, a line that is seven cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

Freddy Peralta prop: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+112 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: No Ks for Jose

Sticking with the same game, we are going to fade left-hander Jose Quintana as he is scheduled to get the ball for New York. He was on the opposite end of the strikeout spectrum than Peralta last season, ranking in the 18th percentile or lower in both Whiff% and K%.

Quintana struggled over the final month of the 2023 campaign, posting a 4.08 ERA through five starts. He recorded four or fewer strikeouts in three of those five outings.

Meanwhile, through 72 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Milwaukee lineup possesses a K% and Whiff% south of 21%. Like the Peralta play, we are catching a generous line on Under 4.5 strikeouts at +116 via FanDuel, a price that is 11 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

Jose Quintana prop: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Wheeling and dealing

Friday’s second game features the other postponement from Thursday with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia hands the ball to right-hander Zack Wheeler, who is coming off yet another successful season in 2023.

While Wheeler is great at pretty much every aspect of hurling the baseball, he thrived in the strikeout department as he ranked in the 83rd percentile in Chase% and 75th percentile in K%. Ending last season in good form, Wheeler recorded at least seven strikeouts in seven of his final 11 starts (including the playoffs).

Despite the Braves boasting one of the best lineups in baseball, Wheeler has dominated them over the past couple of seasons, posting a 5-2 record with a 2.58 ERA over the past 11 meetings. He recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of those 11 outings.

Through 335 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Atlanta lineup possesses a fade-worthy 26.9 K% and 27.4 Whiff%. Looking at Friday’s projected lineup, five of the Braves’ nine hitters posted a K% north of 22% last year.

Zack Wheeler prop: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+118 at FanDuel)