Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Rodriguez Deals Against the BoSox

Prop bet #1: King Tuck

The 4-9 Houston Astros are set to visit the 8-4 Kansas City Royals today. Yes, you read that right. The Royals will go for the sweep of the Astros when they close out their series on Thursday afternoon.

The Royals have gotten off to a hot start thanks to some hot starting pitching, which includes today’s starter Brady Singer. The 27-year-old right-hander has allowed just one run on five hits while striking out 14 over 13 1/3 innings of work this season.

Those numbers are fantastic, but they came in starts against the struggling Minnesota Twins lineup and the Chicago White Sox, who are masquerading around as an MLB team. Last season, Singer pitched to a 4.97 expected ERA and surrendered a .276 expected batting average to opponents over 29 starts.

While the Astros are struggling to get wins, you can’t blame the offense. Houston ranks seventh in batting average, ninth in OPS, and sixth in baseball in wRC+. 

That means we are getting some value with Kyle Tucker’s total bases prop. The Astros outfielder is a professional hitter and boasts a .278 average and a .870 OPS over the last three seasons.

Tucker has gone Over 1.5 total bases in six of his last 12 games and matches up well against Singer. Getting the +140 price tag is what makes this a solid bet. 

Kyle Tucker prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Gray matter

Texas Rangers starter Jon Gray has never been a big strikeout guy, and just because he takes the ball against the Oakland A’s today doesn’t mean that’s all going to change.

Gray holds a 23.7% strikeout rate for his career, and that trend has continued so far in 2024 as the Rangers’ right-hander has punched out just five batters in 7 2/3 innings pitched this season.

It’s also been just a rough start to the year overall for Gray, who has pitched to a 9.65 expected batting average and surrendered a .369 opponent expected batting average in his first two starts.

Gray faced Oakland three times last season, totaling just 10 strikeouts over 16 innings, and never totaled more than five in a game. That includes five in an eight-inning performance last May. 

Gray’s strikeout total for this one opened at 6.5 but was heavily juiced to the Under. Enough, that 5.5s are starting to pop on the board. The lower number at plus money still looks like a solid bet. 

Jon Gray prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+122 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Mr. Electricity

The Baltimore Orioles are hoping former top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez will become the Robin to Corbin Burnes’ Batman in the O’s rotation.

The early returns in 2024 are promising. The right-hander with the electric fastball has given up just three runs on 10 hits while racking up 16 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings pitched this season in matchups against the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Angels.

Tonight, he’ll be on the mound at fabled Fenway Park when the Orioles visit the Boston Red Sox. Burnes dominated the Red Sox allowing one run on two hits over seven innings in Game 1, and while Rodriguez may not be that good, he’ll certainly have a shot to be effective.

Despite the Red Sox’s start, the lineup looks like it is going to be an issue at times this season. Through 12 games, Boston ranks 18th in OPS and 16th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching. The team also has the seventh-highest strikeout rate.

That has me looking at the hits allowed prop for Rodriquez. It’s on the board at 4.5, so I like Rodriquez to limit this BoSox lineup and stay below this number, something he’s already done once this season. The plus money makes this a solid value play.

Grayson Rodriguez prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (+120 at DraftKings)