The Cleveland Guardians will look to take three of four at Fenway Park this afternoon as Carlos Carrasco faces Boston Red Sox lefty Brennan Bernardino who will act as an opener. Cooper Criswell is expected to piggyback for the home side who sits as a slight -120 favorite.
Carrasco might have a respectable 3.55 ERA on the year but his 1.69 WHIP over his last 23 starts which includes 45 walks over 102+ innings tells the story of a pitcher struggling with command on the back-nine of his career. With a falling strikeout market, is there still value at -145 for his Under 4.5 punchouts?
Find out where my best bets lie in my MLB picks and Guardians vs. Red Sox predictions for Thursday, April 18.
Guardians vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 strikeouts (-145 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 11/9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his three starts where he's lasted just 12 2/3 innings. He had five walks in his last outing vs. the Yankees where he also punched out just two batters while recording 14 outs. With Covers MLB prop projections sitting at 3.3 Ks, fading the right-hander is a must this afternoon.
The issue with Carrasco’s Under 4.5 Ks is the juice (-145 at bet365) which might be out of some people’s buy-point. Despite the juice, the Under is projecting as one of the best +EV plays on the entire slate today, per the projections.
I’m hitting this Under straight with the juice but for those who want to boost the odds, adding his Over 1.5 walks (-200) to the SGP at bet365 is an option that drives the odds to +145. He’s projected to have 2.15 free passes and considering he has eight walks over his last two starts, it’s the best addition to escape the heavy juice on the Ks.
His average fastball is sitting under 91 miles per hour, he ranks in the Bottom 10 percent in BB%, he’s throwing just 58% of his pitches for strikes, and he has just 13 swinging strikes over his last two starts (166 pitches). The 37-year-old does not have much left in the tank and his leash is not entirely long with THE BAT projecting just 84 pitches and there's also a chance of rain (22%).
He's also fared poorly vs. the Boston Red Sox over his career allowing 32 runs over 33+ innings across nine games.
Guardians vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 strikeouts
Carlos Carrasco Over 1.5 walks
Both teams to score 4+ runs
It's easy to fade Carrasco here but both offenses have a good matchup with the Sox opting for an opener and then turning to Cooper Criswell who projects as a 5.00+ ERA pitcher.
It's also a good hitters park even with winds blowing in. THE BAT projects this as the best +EV Over of the small slate with the Over 9 winning a projected 56% of the time.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Red Sox odds
Guardians vs Red Sox live odds
Guardians vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-165) | Boston -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +105 | Boston -125
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Guardians vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- At 12-6 SU on the season, Cleveland has been one of the most undervalued teams of the 2024 year as the Guardians are +$635 on straight moneyline bets while the Red Sox have been profitable but at just +$46 on the ML.
- There are 13-mph winds blowing in from right field on top of 47-degree temps and a 22% chance of rain. Always check out the MLB weather before betting.
- The biggest injury to add to your handicap is Boston's Tyler O'Neil who has been one of the best hitters in baseball to begin the season, ranking first in wOBA and second with seven home runs. He had a collision in the outfield on Monday and although he doesn't have a concussion, he's doubtful for today.
- Tanner Houck tossed a complete-game shutout yesterday in a 2-0 win so Boston enters the series finale with a rested bullpen. The Red Sox relievers rank 16th in ERA at 4.11 on the year.
Guardians vs Red Sox trend
Carlos Carrasco is 1-4 with an 8.29 ERA in nine career games (seven starts) against the Red Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Red Sox
Guardians vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, NESN |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Carlos Carrasco (0-1, 3.55 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (0-0, 4.50 ERA) |
Guardians vs Red Sox latest injuries
Guardians vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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