Cubs vs Rangers Prop Bets: Chicago Catcher Can Solve Eovaldi

Prop bet #1: Steele-y resolve

Justin Steele has never been an extreme strikeout arm but is sitting slightly above the league average over the last three seasons. I have plenty of faith in him to eclipse this number on Thursday, something he did in 22 of his 30 starts last season.

The lone weakness of Texas’ strong offense last season was in the strikeout department, and one of its greatest areas of strength was in taking walks. Steele’s walk rate plummeted to an elite 5% last year as he pounded the strike zone, and I think that spells trouble for the Texas Rangers.

Texas should experience a further increase in strikeouts with a couple of rookies expected to get the start on Opening Day, and many of the players which struggled to put the ball in play have returned for 2024. If it’s indeed the lefty Jared Walsh to get the start here at first base, too, you can expect at least one K out of him given his dreadful strikeout numbers over the last two seasons.

I think this Over is attainable in a start where Steele should go fairly deep.

Justin Steele prop: Over 4.5 Ks (-136 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Gomes gets to Eovaldi

If you’re a believer in batter-versus-pitcher numbers, then this one’s for you. We’re going to roll the dice with Chicago’s No. 9 hitter Yan Gomes to pick up a hit against Nathan Eovaldi, someone he’s had plenty of success against in the past.

The veteran has faced Eovaldi 11 times in his career, picking up six hits, including a double. He’s coming off of a solid spring where he hit .278 and stole the starting job away from youngster Miguel Amaya, and against a pitcher whose mantra is getting the ball into the strike zone and getting outs via contact, this should be a solid matchup.

Gomes had a surprising 2023, like many reclamation projects joining the Chicago Cubs, hitting .267 in 419 plate appearances while looking like a reliable option at the bottom of the order. I like him to keep things going for Chicago, which has apparently unlocked something in the 36-year-old.

Yan Gomes prop: 1+ hit (-150 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Seiya goodbye

Finally, since it’s Opening Day, we’re going to have to take a big swing here. I want to find a home run in this game, and I think our best bet is to find it in the Cubs’ lineup.

Eovaldi’s barrel rate over the last two seasons has risen into troubling territory at around 9%, and in the past two seasons he’s surrendered 36 round-trippers.

Christopher Morel was the Cub to hit the most homers off righties last season, which you’d expect out of a lefty with a power swing, but one guy you may not have expected to see up on that list was righty Seiya Suzuki.

Suzuki had a blistering spring, putting together a 1.593 OPS with six home runs in 15 games. The price on him here at Caesars is just too good to ignore, and once again it’s worth noting that of the 20 homers he hit a season ago, just three came against lefties.

I expect one or two Cubs to leave the yard against Eovaldi, and you can’t beat this number.

Seiya Suzuki prop: 1+ home run (+625 at Caesars)