The Seattle Mariners look to get back in the win column after dropping four of their last six games when they host the Chicago Cubs this afternoon. It’s the rubber match of a three-game series after Chicago won 4-2 in Game 1 and Seattle responded with a 4-1 victory in Game 2.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks in my Cubs vs. Mariners predictions on April 14.
Cubs vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Sunday’s Game 3 offers an interesting pitching matchup between an ace who had underperformed so far in 2024 and a back-of-the-rotation piece who has overperformed.
Luis Castillo is supposed to be the ace of the Seattle Mariners, but he’s struggled with a 6.89 ERA through three starts. His peripheral numbers are generally much more encouraging, however, as his 3.56 xERA and 3.37 FIP are more in line with his career averages.
One thing to watch with Castillo is the slight velocity dip we’ve seen in his first couple of starts. After averaging 97.1 mph on his fastball in 2022 and 96.4 mph in 2023, he’s down to 95.4 this season. It’s still early in the season and sometimes velocity dips are seen to start the year before starting pitchers are fully ramped up and stretched out.
For now, I’m willing to give Castillo a bit of a pass as he hasn’t finished with an ERA above 4.00 since 2018. He pitched well with a 3.34 ERA a year ago despite the slight velocity dip and will figure it out eventually in 2024 — pitchers rarely go from “elite” to “fade material” in such a short time span without a very reasonable explanation.
Javier Assad is a bit of the opposite case for the Chicago Cubs as his 1.64 ERA is not supported by his 3.66 xERA and 3.61 FIP. Nonetheless, he has undoubtedly been effective with a healthy 27.9% K-rate, although his 9.3% walk rate is a concern going forward. It’s been good news for Assad in 2024 and he gets a solid matchup here on the road.
He faces a soft-hitting Seattle lineup that has struggled with a 78 wRC+ (tied for 27th in MLB) and a .269 wOBA (27th). Those numbers get even worse when you isolate for right-handed pitching, against whom they’ve mustered league-worst figures in both wRC+ (69) wRC+ and wOBA (.257).
I fancy the Under with my best bet in a game with one starting pitcher due for some positive regression in his numbers and another one who has allowed just two runs in 11 innings facing the worst lineup in the MLB against right-handed pitching. Some books have moved the total down to 7.5 but there are still plenty of eights available in the market.
Cubs vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Luis Castillo 6+ strikeouts
Javier Assad 6+ strikeouts
Castillo is known to rack up punchouts regardless if he allows runs or not, so there’s less volatility in his strikeout prop Over bets. He’s struck out 18 batters across 15 2/3 innings so far this season and is averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings for the third straight year.
On the flip side, Assad isn’t known as a strikeout pitcher but has a healthy 27.9% K-rate so far this year and faces a Seattle lineup with a brutal 31.5% K-rate against righties. Not only is that the worst K-rate in the MLB, it’s three full percentage points worse than the next-closest ball club (Cincinnati).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Mariners odds
Cubs vs Mariners live odds
Cubs vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | Seattle -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +120 | Seattle -130
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle is 5-9-1 O/U this season and both of the first two games of this series went Under the total
- Seattle opened at -130 and there has been minimal line movement thus far, with -140 to -146 currently available. Track any further fluctuations using our MLB odds tool
- Neither team is in terrific form as Chicago has dropped three of its last five games while Seattle has lost four of its last six
Cubs vs Mariners trend
Seattle is 0-5 O/U across its last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mariners
Cubs vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Root Sports |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (1-0, 1.64 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Luis Castillo (0-3, 6.89 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mariners latest injuries
Cubs vs Mariners weather
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