After taking the first two games of the series, the Toronto Blue Jays go for a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels in Saturday’s game three.
Toronto seems to have found its groove after struggling at the plate for most of May. The Blue Jays have won three straight and five of their last seven overall. The Angels have regressed somewhat after a torrid start to the season. They now sit at 27-20.
Can the Angels stop the bleeding, or will the Blue Jays complete the sweep?
Find out with our MLB picks and predictions for the Blue Jays and the Angels on Saturday, May 28.
Blue Jays vs Angels odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Angeles opened -104 favorites and have taken some money. They now sit between -108 and -120 favorites depending on the book. The total has been set at 8.5 across all books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Angels predictions
Picks made on 5/28/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Angels game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Saturday, May 28, 2022
• First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet 1, Bally Sports West
Blue Jays vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (2-1, 3.47 ERA): The veteran left-hander has had a decent start to his first season in Toronto but has factored into only three decisions across eight starts. He’s been in a groove lately, allowing only five total earned runs across his last four starts. His Statcast profile is a slight concern, as he’s allowing a high 6.5%-barrel rate. His 4.35 FIP is not a good indicator of future success.
Michael Lorenzen (5-2, 3.05 ERA): Lorenzen spent the first seven years of his career in Cincinnati, mostly appearing out of the bullpen. The move to Los Angeles has coincided with his switch to the rotation, a move that has gone well. His 4.08 FIP indicates some regression. He doesn’t miss many bats (6.31 K/9) and his .237 BABIP is likely unsustainable given his career .290 BABIP.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: Tim Mayza RP (Out), Tayler Saucedo RP (Out).
Angels: Anthony Rendon 3B (Out), Shohei Ohtani DH (Questionable), David Fletcher SS (Out), Chris Rodriguez RP (Out), Cooper Criswell RP (Out), Jose Quijada RP (Out), Austin Warren RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Angels are 11-2 in their last 13 during game three of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Angels
Blue Jays vs Angels picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Angels have been on a skid, but it’s always best to evaluate matchups on a game-to-game basis. How do they look against the Blue Jays for Saturday’s series finale?
The Angels haven’t been bad against lefties, ranking 12th in OPS (.718) and 12th in wOBA (.319). That being said, star Shohei Ohtani is considered questionable for this matchup.
Ohtani, the reigning AL MVP, missed Friday’s game with back soreness after experiencing decreased velocity in Thursday’s start on the mound. It seemed like more of a day off than anything.
Third baseman Anthony Rendon will be out for a while after heading to the 10-day IL with wrist inflammation.
Toronto’s lineup has vastly underperformed expectations in 2022. The Jays rank just 25th in runs per game (3.81), 20th in batting average (.234), and 18th in OPS (.684). They’ve performed better as of late, ranking in the Top-15 in most categories across the last ten days. That’s an encouraging sign as they return to form and health, but it’s still hard to fully trust them.
Kikuchi is giving up a lot of hard contact and the Angels hit left-handed pitching fairly well, so we believe the early money on the Angels is justified. This is a close matchup and the Angels are playing at home to avoid a sweep. Give me the home team.
Prediction: Angels moneyline (-108 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
There are some things about Kikuchi’s profile that make me pause. His 6.5%-barrel rate indicates that he’s giving up a decent amount of hard contact. It hasn’t come back to bite him yet, but he seems primed for some regression. He has a 4.84 ERA since making the move to the states and his peripherals have not been encouraging for the most part, noticeably with a 4.88 career FIP.
The Angels will be missing Rendon, but they’ve been pretty good as a whole against left-handed pitching — ranking 8th in wRC+ against southpaws.
Lorenzen has a decent profile, but his .237 BABIP is due for regression back to career norms. He doesn’t strike out many batters and will be facing a Toronto lineup that has underperformed but is still talented.
Neither bullpen is particularly effective, and both have performed remarkably similarly. The Angels have a 3.79 ERA in relief, while Toronto is right behind with a 3.82 ERA.
The weather shouldn’t be too big of a factor, but it’s worth noting that the wind will be blowing out to left field at around 9 mph.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Best bet
I’m betting on regression from Kikuchi. He’s performed well over his last few starts, but we have 3+ seasons' worth of data on him at this point and it’s not pretty.
His ERA has been above 5.00 twice and has never been below 4.00. His 4.35 FIP and high barrel rate indicate regression, so I’m placing my money betting on just that.
I like the Angels on the moneyline, but I won’t be using that as the best bet because I can’t fully trust Lorenzen.
Rather, I’ll target the Angels' team total. BetMGM has a 3.5 prop listed at -135, which I like. You can also play the total at 4 for reduced juice at some books if that’s what you prefer.
Pick: Angels team total Over 3.5 (-135 at BetMGM)
