The Los Angeles Angels are seeking just their second series win of the season when they wrap up their four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays.
L.A. has taken two of the first three games of the series to move to .500 on the year. Another win will send the Rays down to the .500 mark for the third time this season.
Oddsmakers have pegged the home side as -155 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds.
Can the Rays square up this series on getaway day? Check out my free Angels vs Rays predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, April 18.
Angels vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Both teams have carved similar paths to get to where they currently sit: sub-par pitching and average hitting.
The Tampa Bay Rays rank 28th in MLB with a team ERA of 4.93 and their 1.41 WHIP and .259 opponent batting average aren't much better (both fifth-worst marks). Zoom in closer, and the bullpen has not been a pretty sight, sporting an MLB-worst 6.23 ERA.
The Los Angeles Angels, meanwhile, are a Bottom-8 pitching unit, with a 4.45 team ERA, though their WHIP (1.25) and opponent batting average (.234) are more middling than outright bad.
Some offense would be a big relief to both teams, but the hurlers have been underserved by the bats.
The Angels and Rays are 16th and 17th in runs scored and are within a couple of spots of each other in the middle of the pack when it comes to batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. But the bats of both teams might have just found the soft-landing spot they need, facing a pair of starters who have struggled out of the gate, with just a win between them.
Griffin Canning seeks his first win in start four of the season, going 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA. He was bombed last time out by the Red Sox, with the Angles losing 7-2. Canning was chased after four innings of work, surrendering nine hits and six runs.
Tampa turns to Ryan Pepiot, who is 1-2 this season with a 5.40 ERA. He was blasted in an 11-2 loss to the Giants in his last start, going five innings, giving up five hits and four earned runs.
In Canning’s three starts, the Angels have combined with their opponent to go Over the total of 8.5 (the line set for Thursday) each time. Only one of Pepiot’s three starts have hit the Under.
Tampa has topped its run total in six straight games, while the two teams have crossed the total in each of the first three games of this set.
Look for Angels-Rays to stay on trend and wear down the pitching.
Angels vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Mike Trout Over 0.5 home runs
Jose Caballero 1+ total bases
Mike Trout is tied with Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna for the major league lead in home runs with eight. With dingers in two of the three games in this series, I like him to go yard again.
Trout has yet to face Pepiot, though the Rays’ starter has been susceptible to the long ball. Pepiot has allowed three homers through three starts, with San Francisco sending a pair of his offerings out of the park last start.
Tampa is also tied with Toronto for most home runs allowed this season with 29. A Trout HR will certainly up the juice in this 3-legged SGP.
Let’s wrap with Rays’ shortstop Jose Caballero, who picked up a hit in Wednesday night's loss, giving him base knocks in nine of his last 11.
He’s only faced Canning twice (registering a hit), but the L.A. righty has been batted around, with teams averaging seven hits per game against him over three starts.
Caballero has only gone hitless twice in 15 games, giving him as good a shot as anyone to reach the 1+ total base prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Angels vs Rays odds
Angels vs Rays live odds
Angels vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-160) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +125 | Tampa Bay -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Angels vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- L.A. is 8-7-0 this year as the underdog.
- Tampa is 6-7 against the spread as the home team.
- The Over has hit in six of the last eight head-to-heads.
Angels vs Rays trend
The Rays have hit the Over 12 times in 19 games, a Top-5 mark in the business. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Rays
Angels vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SW, BSSUN |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Griffin Canning (0-2, 9.89 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Ryan Pepiot (1-2, 5.40 ERA) |
Angels vs Rays latest injuries
Angels vs Rays weather
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